Port of Mobile: Alabama Steel & Forest Gateway

According to IMF PortWatch data (accessed October 2024), the Port of Mobile handled 1,131 vessel calls, with a diversified cargo mix featuring 34.0% dry bulk carriers (385 calls), 25.6% containers (289 calls), and 19.3% general cargo (218 calls). This balanced profile positions Mobile as Alabama's critical deepwater port, serving the AM/NS Calvert steel facility (5.3 million tonnes annual capacity), southeastern US forest products exporters, and container trades via APM Terminals Mobile (1.2 million TEU capacity). The port's unique asset—the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway connecting Mobile to the Tennessee River and Mississippi River system—provides 234 miles of inland barge access, reducing logistics costs 40-60% for Midwest grain, coal, and bulk commodity exporters.

Mobile's strategic significance stems from its role as the Gulf Coast outlet for Alabama's industrial corridor, spanning steel production (AM/NS Calvert), forest products (pine lumber, wood pellets), automotive manufacturing (Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz supplier base), and Austal USA shipbuilding. The port's 1.95% share of US maritime imports and 1.47% export share reflect balanced two-way trade flows—import consumer goods containerized from Asia alongside export steel slabs, wood products, and coal to international markets. This diversification creates trading opportunities around US manufacturing PMI, steel industry capacity utilization, European biomass energy demand, and Southeast container logistics competition.

Port Overview

The Port of Mobile encompasses deep-water marine terminals along a 45-mile navigation channel extending from Mobile Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. The port complex includes the McDuffie Coal Terminal (bulk export facility), APM Terminals Mobile (1.2M TEU container capacity), Pinto Island (general cargo and steel handling), Austal USA shipyard, and multiple private terminals operated by AM/NS Calvert (steel exports) and forest products companies (lumber, wood pellets).

The port's infrastructure centers on container operations with APM Terminals Mobile featuring 1,200 feet of berth, four ship-to-shore gantry cranes capable of handling Panamax vessels, and on-dock rail connections via CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway. Steel export operations utilize specialized general cargo berths at Pinto Island with heavy-lift cranes handling steel slabs (up to 25 tonnes per unit) and coiled products. The Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway (Tenn-Tom) provides direct barge access to Tennessee River ports including Chattanooga and Knoxville, plus connections to the Mississippi River system at Columbus, Mississippi.

Key Infrastructure:

Mobile's 45-foot channel depth accommodates Panamax container vessels (up to 5,000 TEU) and Handymax/Panamax bulk carriers but limits ultra-large container ships requiring 50+ feet. This depth constraint positions Mobile as a regional container hub and bulk export gateway rather than competing with Savannah/Charleston mega-ship capabilities. The port's proximity to Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway creates competitive advantage for barge-delivered bulk commodities versus truck-dependent ports.

Vessel Traffic Analysis

Total Traffic Composition

| Vessel Type | Call Count | Percentage | Strategic Role | |-------------|-----------|------------|----------------| | Dry bulk carriers | 385 | 34.0% | Coal, steel, wood pellets, forest products | | Container vessels | 289 | 25.6% | Imports (consumer goods), exports (resins, machinery) | | General cargo | 218 | 19.3% | Steel slabs/coils, project cargo, breakbulk | | Tankers | 169 | 14.9% | Petroleum products, chemicals | | Ro-ro | 69 | 6.1% | Automobiles (import/export, niche operations) |

This cargo distribution reflects Mobile's balanced diversification versus specialized ports. The 34.0% dry bulk dominance (385 calls) indicates significant commodity export activity—coal from Alabama mines, steel from AM/NS Calvert, and forest products from southeastern timberlands. The 25.6% container share (289 calls) provides base load consumer goods import traffic alongside manufactured exports, stabilizing revenues during commodity cycles.

The 19.3% general cargo (218 calls) primarily comprises steel products too large or heavy for containers (slabs, coiled steel, structural sections) plus breakbulk project cargo including wind turbine components and industrial equipment. The minimal tanker traffic (14.9%) versus energy ports like Corpus Christi (84%) demonstrates Mobile's industrial/commodity focus rather than petroleum specialization.

Dry Bulk Traffic Patterns

Mobile's 385 annual dry bulk calls translate to approximately 32 dry bulk vessel movements per month, establishing steady commodity export operations. This traffic divides into four primary cargo categories:

Coal Exports (estimated 35-40% of dry bulk, ~135-155 calls):

Steel Products (estimated 25-30% of dry bulk, ~95-115 calls):

Wood Pellets (estimated 20-25% of dry bulk, ~75-95 calls):

Forest Products / Lumber (estimated 15-20% of dry bulk, ~60-75 calls):

Monthly Dry Bulk Call Patterns (2023-2024 estimates):

The port's coal export volume correlates with European natural gas prices (TTF benchmark) as coal serves backup power generation when gas prices spike. When TTF exceeds €50/MWh ($15-18/MMBtu equivalent), European utilities increase coal purchasing, driving Mobile coal exports 15-25% above baseline within 60-90 days.

Container Traffic Patterns

Mobile's 289 annual container calls translate to approximately 24 container vessel movements per month, operating at the lower tier of US container ports but providing critical regional coverage. APM Terminals Mobile handles weekly services from Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, and regional carriers connecting Gulf Coast to Asia, Europe, and Latin America trades.

Container Call Composition:

Monthly Container Patterns (2023-2024 estimates):

Mobile's container throughput correlates with Southeastern US manufacturing PMI (published by S&P Global first business day of month), which leads port container activity by 30-45 days. PMI readings above 52 correlate with 8-12% increases in container calls within the following quarter as factory production generates export shipments and import material needs.

Trade Significance

United States Trade Share

According to IMF PortWatch, the Port of Mobile accounts for:

This slight import bias (1.95% vs 1.47%) creates a 1.33x import-to-export ratio, typical of balanced regional ports handling consumer goods imports alongside industrial exports. The 1.47% export share represents approximately $18-22 billion in annual export value (based on US maritime exports of ~$1.3-1.5 trillion), with steel comprising 30-35% of value, coal 20-25%, forest products 15-20%, and containerized manufactured goods 20-25%.

Mobile's trade balance reflects Alabama's industrial economy: steel production (AM/NS Calvert 5.3M tonnes), automotive manufacturing (Hyundai Montgomery, Mercedes-Benz Vance supplier networks), and aerospace/defense (Austal USA shipbuilding, Airbus Mobile assembly). Import cargo serves these industries with machinery, components, and consumer goods for regional markets spanning Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

Regional Trade Corridors

Primary Export Destinations:

  1. Europe (35-40% of export tonnage) - Germany, UK, Netherlands, Belgium (steel, wood pellets, forest products)
  2. Latin America (25-30%) - Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile (steel products, coal)
  3. Asia (20-25%) - China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (coal, wood pellets, steel)
  4. Caribbean / Central America (10-15%) - Regional container exports, bulk commodities

Export Commodity Economics by Destination:

| Region | Primary Commodities | Vessel Type | Transit Days | Freight Cost/Tonne | |--------|-------------------|-------------|--------------|-------------------| | Europe (Rotterdam/Hamburg) | Steel, wood pellets | Panamax bulk | 14-18 | $25-$35 | | UK (Drax biomass plant) | Wood pellets | Handymax | 12-16 | $22-$32 | | Mexico/Central America | Steel, containers | Panamax | 3-5 | $12-$18 | | Asia (China/Japan) | Coal, forest products | Panamax bulk | 30-40 | $45-$65 |

These freight economics explain commodity flow patterns: short-haul Latin America trades favor higher-volume, lower-margin steel products, while long-haul Asia-Europe exports concentrate on higher-value commodities (metallurgical coal, premium wood pellets) justifying 30-40 day transit costs.

Primary Import Origins:

  1. Asia (50-60% of container imports) - China (30-35%), Vietnam (12-15%), India (8-10%)
  2. Europe (20-25%) - Germany, Belgium, UK (machinery, automotive components)
  3. Latin America (10-15%) - Mexico (automotive parts), Brazil (steel inputs)
  4. Other (5-10%) - Middle East, Africa

Mobile's container imports exhibit typical Southeast US patterns: Chinese consumer goods (furniture, electronics, apparel), Vietnamese textiles, Indian chemicals and machinery. These imports serve Alabama retail markets and automotive/aerospace manufacturing supply chains, arriving via APM Terminals for distribution via truck (within 250-mile radius) or rail intermodal (to Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi).

Steel Export Operations

AM/NS Calvert Facility Integration

Mobile's steel export operations center on the AM/NS Calvert steel mill (formerly ThyssenKrupp Steel USA, acquired by ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel in 2023), located 40 miles north of Mobile in Calvert, Alabama. This integrated steel mill features 5.3 million tonnes annual capacity producing steel slabs, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled products, and galvanized steel for automotive, construction, and industrial applications.

AM/NS Calvert Specifications:

Steel products move from Calvert to Mobile's Pinto Island terminal via truck or CSX rail, arriving at specialized berths with heavy-lift cranes handling slabs (up to 25 tonnes each) and coiled products (15-20 tonnes per coil). Loading operations accommodate Panamax bulk carriers and heavy-lift multi-purpose vessels capable of securing steel cargo for seaborne transport.

Steel Export Volume Drivers:

US Steel Industry Capacity Utilization:

American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) publishes weekly steel production and capacity utilization data. When US steel capacity utilization exceeds 80%, domestic demand absorbs most production, reducing export availability. When utilization drops below 75%, mills increase export activity to maintain volumes, boosting Mobile steel exports 12-18% with 30-45 day lag from production to vessel loading.

International Steel Price Spreads:

Mobile steel exports respond to price differentials between US domestic steel (Midwest HRC prices published by commodity price agencies) and international markets (European HRC, Asian HRC). When US HRC trades $50-100/tonne below international prices, export economics favor shipments to Europe or Latin America. Conversely, when US prices trade at parity or premium, domestic sales dominate.

| US-International HRC Spread | Export Economics | Typical Monthly Volume | Change vs Baseline | |-----------------------------|------------------|------------------------|-------------------| | US premium +$50/tonne | Unfavorable - domestic sales preferred | 140-160k tonnes | -25% to -35% | | Parity ±$20/tonne | Marginal - selective export markets | 180-200k tonnes | -10% to baseline | | US discount -$30 to -$50/tonne | Favorable - European/LatAm exports viable | 200-220k tonnes | Baseline | | US discount -$50 to -$100/tonne | Strong - Asian exports economical | 240-280k tonnes | +20% to +40% |

Section 232 Tariff Policy Impact:

US Section 232 steel tariffs (25% on most steel imports, exemptions for Canada/Mexico under USMCA) affect international competitiveness. When trading partners retaliate with tariffs on US steel exports (EU, China historical responses), Mobile export volumes decline 15-25% to affected markets. Monitor USTR (US Trade Representative) announcements and WTO steel trade disputes.

ArcelorMittal / Nippon Steel Production Strategy:

AM/NS Calvert's parent companies (ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel) report quarterly production and sales data. When parent companies announce capacity utilization targets, Calvert production adjusts 30-60 days ahead, signaling Mobile export volumes. ArcelorMittal quarterly earnings (published ~30 days after quarter-end) provide forward guidance on North American operations.

Forest Products & Wood Pellet Exports

Southeastern Timber Industry Connection

Mobile serves as a primary export gateway for southeastern US forest products, spanning Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia timberlands. The region's pine plantations and hardwood forests supply lumber mills, pulp manufacturers, and wood pellet production facilities exporting through Mobile's bulk terminals.

Primary Forest Product Exports:

Wood Pellets (Biomass Energy):

Wood pellet exports from Mobile have surged 40-60% since 2020 as European utilities transition coal plants to biomass co-firing or full conversion. Drax Power Station in the UK alone imports over 7 million tonnes of wood pellets annually, with Mobile handling estimated 15-20% of US-to-UK pellet flows. When European natural gas prices spike (2022-2023 energy crisis saw TTF exceed €200/MWh), wood pellet demand and prices increase 25-40%, driving Mobile export volumes.

Lumber and Wood Pulp:

Lumber exports correlate with housing construction activity in destination markets. US housing starts data (published by Census Bureau mid-month with 1-month lag) provides coincident indicator for domestic lumber demand, with exports serving as overflow when US demand weakens.

Forest Products Volume Drivers:

European Biomass Energy Policy:

European Union renewable energy targets and national biomass policies drive wood pellet demand. UK policy (phasing out coal power by 2025, replaced by biomass and renewables) structurally supports pellet imports. When EU carbon prices (ETS permits) exceed €80/tonne, biomass economics improve versus fossil fuels, increasing pellet demand 12-18% with 90-120 day lag for supply chain adjustments.

European Natural Gas Prices (TTF):

Historical correlation shows +0.64 between quarterly TTF natural gas prices and Mobile wood pellet export volumes (90-day lag). When TTF exceeds €50/MWh, utilities increase biomass co-firing, driving pellet spot purchases. When TTF drops below €30/MWh, biomass loses competitiveness, reducing pellet exports 15-25%.

US Housing Construction Activity:

US housing starts correlate with domestic lumber demand, creating inverse relationship with exports. When housing starts exceed 1.6M annually, domestic lumber consumption increases, reducing export availability. When starts drop below 1.2M, lumber mills increase export focus, boosting Mobile volumes 10-15%.

Trading Port Signals

Binary Market Examples

Mobile Monthly Container Call Threshold:

| Outcome | Threshold | Implied Probability | Contract Price | |---------|-----------|-------------------|----------------| | October 2025 container calls ≥ 28 vessels | ≥28 calls | 65% | $0.65 | | October 2025 container calls less than 28 vessels | fewer than 28 calls | 35% | $0.35 |

Rationale: October represents peak holiday import season as retailers stock for November-December holiday sales. The 28-call threshold represents +17% above 2024 October baseline, testing whether consumer spending recovery and retail inventory restocking drive above-average container activity. Monitor Southeastern US manufacturing PMI (published first business day, 30-45 day lead), retail sales data (Census Bureau mid-month release), and APM Terminals booking indices.

Mobile Steel Export Volume Binary:

| Outcome | Threshold | Implied Probability | Contract Price | |---------|-----------|-------------------|----------------| | Q3 2025 Mobile steel exports ≥ 650k tonnes | ≥650k tonnes | 52% | $0.52 | | Q3 2025 Mobile steel exports less than 650k tonnes | fewer than 650k tonnes | 48% | $0.48 |

Trading Logic: Q3 baseline is 600-640k tonnes (AM/NS Calvert operating at 80-85% capacity utilization). The ≥650k threshold tests whether summer construction demand and favorable US-international steel price spreads push exports above baseline. Monitor US steel capacity utilization (AISI weekly data), international HRC prices (European HRC vs Midwest HRC spread), and ArcelorMittal quarterly guidance. Market resolves early Q4 when Alabama State Port Authority publishes monthly statistics.

Scalar Markets

Mobile Q4 2025 Wood Pellet Export Volume Prediction Market:

Predict total Q4 2025 wood pellet exports (October-December 2025):

| Bucket | Implied Range | Market Price | Implied Probability | |--------|---------------|--------------|-------------------| | Very Low | 300-400k tonnes | $0.08 | 8% | | Low | 400-500k tonnes | $0.24 | 24% | | Medium | 500-600k tonnes | $0.42 | 42% | | High | 600-700k tonnes | $0.21 | 21% | | Very High | 700-800k tonnes | $0.05 | 5% |

Resolution: Based on Alabama State Port Authority monthly tonnage statistics (published ~7-10 business days after month-end) aggregated for Q4 2025, category "forest products and biomass."

Key Factors:

Q4 represents peak wood pellet export season due to European winter heating demand. Mild winter forecasts or TTF gas prices below €35/MWh favor Low/Very Low buckets; severe winter forecasts or TTF above €60/MWh favor High/Very High buckets.

Cross-Port Spreads

Mobile vs Savannah Container Call Differential:

Predict monthly container call difference: Savannah calls minus Mobile calls

| Spread Range | Implied Differential | Market Price | |--------------|---------------------|--------------| | Savannah +40 to +60 calls | Savannah moderately ahead | $0.12 | | Savannah +60 to +80 calls | Savannah significantly ahead | $0.36 | | Savannah +80 to +100 calls | Savannah strongly ahead | $0.38 | | Savannah +100 to +120 calls | Savannah dominantly ahead | $0.12 | | Savannah +120+ calls | Savannah extremely ahead | $0.02 |

Trading Rationale: Savannah typically handles 2.5-3.0x Mobile's container volume (Savannah ~60-70 calls/month vs Mobile ~24 calls). Spread tightening (less than +65 differential) signals Mobile gaining market share from Southeast mega-ports, perhaps via smaller vessel services or niche trade routes. Spread widening (greater than +95) indicates mega-ship concentration at Savannah with deeper drafts (50 feet vs Mobile's 45 feet). Monitor vessel size trends (published by carrier alliances) and Southeast manufacturing PMI regional variations.

Correlation Markets

Mobile Steel Exports vs US Steel Capacity Utilization:

Historical correlation: +0.58 (30-45 day lag)

| Correlation Range | Q2 2026 Correlation | Market Price | |-------------------|---------------------|--------------| | Very Weak | +0.30 to +0.45 | $0.06 | | Weak | +0.45 to +0.55 | $0.18 | | Moderate | +0.55 to +0.65 | $0.52 | | Strong | +0.65 to +0.75 | $0.20 | | Very Strong | +0.75 to +0.85 | $0.04 |

Resolution Methodology: Compare weekly US steel capacity utilization (AISI data, March-May 2026) with Mobile monthly steel export tonnage (Alabama State Port Authority statistics, April-June 2026) using Pearson correlation coefficient with 30-day lag adjustment.

Interpretation: Correlation strengthening above +0.70 indicates tight domestic/export relationship; weakening below +0.50 suggests international price arbitrage or Section 232 tariff distortions overriding capacity signals. Traders use correlation markets to assess whether Mobile steel exports follow US production cycles or respond to independent international demand shocks.

Economic Indicators

Leading vs Lagging Signals

Mobile port data serves both leading and lagging roles depending on metric and timeframe:

Leading Indicators (Port → Economy):

Lagging Indicators (Economy → Port):

Coincident Indicators (Simultaneous):

Economic Signal Timeline Example:

  1. Day 0: Southeastern US manufacturing PMI published at 54.8 (expansion signal)
  2. Day 10-15: Factory production increases 5-8% (PMI correlation)
  3. Day 20-25: Export orders processed, containers stuffed at factories
  4. Day 30-35: Container deliveries to Mobile APM Terminals
  5. Day 35-40: Vessel loading and departure (recorded in monthly stats)
  6. Day 45-50: Alabama State Port Authority publishes monthly throughput data

This 45-50 day lag means current month PMI readings predict next-month container call statistics, enabling traders to position ahead of official port data releases using early PMI signals.

Regional Manufacturing Economy Correlation

Mobile's balanced cargo mix creates correlation with Southeastern US industrial activity:

Southeastern Manufacturing PMI Correlation:

Alabama Economic Indicators:

Risk Factors

Operational Risks

Hurricane Season Closures (June-November): Mobile experiences 3-6 days of hurricane-related disruptions annually during Gulf Coast hurricane season. Hurricane Katrina (2005) devastated the region, and Hurricane Zeta (2020) caused significant operational delays. Mobile Bay's semi-protected geography provides some storm surge mitigation versus open-coast ports, but sustained winds exceeding 50 knots still force complete port closures and vessel evacuations. NOAA issues 5-day forecasts; when hurricane landfall probability exceeds 25% for the Mobile area, port operators initiate shutdown procedures.

Channel Depth Constraints: Mobile's 45-foot channel depth limits vessel sizes to Panamax container ships (~5,000 TEU) and Panamax bulk carriers (~80,000 DWT), preventing ultra-large container vessel (ULCV) calls that drive economies of scale at Savannah/Charleston (50+ foot depths). This depth constraint caps container market share growth unless $500M+ channel deepening project (proposed but unfunded) proceeds, which would extend 45 feet to 50 feet.

Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway Lock Maintenance: The Tenn-Tom Waterway features 10 locks along its 234-mile length, requiring periodic maintenance closures lasting 1-2 weeks annually (typically February-March or September-October). These closures disrupt barge traffic delivering grain, coal, and bulk commodities from Tennessee/Midwest origins, reducing Mobile dry bulk exports 15-25% during affected periods.

AM/NS Calvert Steel Mill Disruptions: Mobile's steel export volumes depend heavily on AM/NS Calvert operations. Mill production outages (equipment failures, labor disputes, maintenance turnarounds) directly reduce port steel cargo 30-50% with minimal alternative sourcing. The 2023 ownership transition from ThyssenKrupp to ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel created 4-6 week operational uncertainties affecting Q3 2023 export schedules.

Geopolitical Risks

Section 232 Steel Tariffs and Trade Retaliation: US Section 232 steel tariffs (25% on most imports) trigger retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, impacting Mobile steel exports. EU retaliatory tariffs on US steel (2018-2021 period) reduced European steel exports from Mobile 18-24%. Monitor USTR trade policy announcements and WTO steel trade dispute outcomes.

European Biomass Energy Policy Changes: Mobile wood pellet exports depend on European renewable energy policies supporting biomass co-firing and conversion. UK government reviews of biomass subsidies (2024 policy review) or EU sustainability criteria tightening could reduce European pellet imports 20-30%, directly impacting Mobile forest products exports. Monitor EU renewable energy directives and UK Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction results.

US-China Trade Relations: Mobile handles 30-35% of container imports from China, creating exposure to Section 301 tariffs and trade tensions. Tariff escalations (10-25 percentage point increases) historically reduce Chinese import volumes 12-18% with 60-90 day lag as importers shift sourcing to Vietnam, India, or Mexico. Monitor USTR tariff review cycles (typically annual) and Chinese Ministry of Commerce responses.

Coal Industry Structural Decline: US coal production faces long-term decline amid renewable energy transitions and natural gas competition. Alabama coal mining output has declined 30-40% over the past decade, reducing Mobile's coal export base. While metallurgical coal for steelmaking remains stable, thermal coal exports face persistent headwinds from European coal power phase-outs.

Weather and Seasonal Risks

Hurricane Season (June-November): Peak hurricane activity occurs August-October. While Mobile's semi-protected bay location reduces storm surge risk versus open Gulf Coast ports, major hurricanes still force multi-day closures. Historical base rate: 1-2 tropical storms causing operational disruptions annually, with major hurricane (Category 3+) impacts once every 8-12 years.

Winter Weather (Rare): While uncommon, severe winter weather can impact Mobile operations. The February 2021 Texas freeze affected Gulf Coast logistics broadly, though Mobile experienced less disruption than Houston/Corpus Christi. Polar vortex events occur once per 10-15 years historically, creating 2-5 day operational delays.

Seasonal Forest Products Patterns: Wood pellet exports peak in Q4-Q1 (European winter heating demand), creating 30-40% volume swings between peak and shoulder seasons. Traders position long Q4 wood pellet exports, short Q2-Q3 when European demand weakens. Mild European winters reduce pellet demand 15-25%, impacting Mobile export volumes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the Port of Mobile critical for Alabama steel exports?

According to IMF PortWatch data (October 2024), Mobile handles 385 dry bulk vessel calls (34.0% of total traffic), many serving the AM/NS Calvert steel facility (formerly ThyssenKrupp Steel) with 5.3 million tonnes annual capacity. The port provides the primary export gateway for Alabama-produced steel slabs, coils, and plates to international markets.

What percentage of Mobile's traffic is containers vs bulk?

Mobile exhibits balanced diversification: containers account for 25.6% (289 calls), dry bulk 34.0% (385 calls), and general cargo 19.3% (218 calls). This diversified profile contrasts with specialized energy ports like Corpus Christi (84% tankers), providing more stable baseline volumes across economic cycles.

What is the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway connection?

The Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway (Tenn-Tom) is a 234-mile inland navigation system connecting Mobile to the Tennessee River and broader Mississippi River system. This allows barge traffic from Tennessee, Kentucky, and Midwest states to reach Mobile's deepwater terminals, supporting grain, coal, and forest product exports while reducing trucking costs 40-60%.

How does the AM/NS Calvert steel facility use Mobile?

AM/NS Calvert (formerly ThyssenKrupp Steel USA, acquired by ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel in 2023) operates a 5.3 million tonne per year steel mill in Calvert, Alabama, 40 miles north of Mobile. The facility exports steel slabs, hot-rolled coils, and galvanized products through Mobile's general cargo and dry bulk terminals, accounting for an estimated 20-25% of port export tonnage.

Can I trade Mobile container volume?

Yes, binary markets predict whether monthly container throughput exceeds thresholds like 30,000 TEUs. Scalar markets let you select ranges (e.g., 25-30k, 30-35k TEUs). APM Terminals Mobile handles 1.2 million TEU annual capacity (100k monthly average). Monitor regional manufacturing PMI (published first business day) which leads port container activity by 30-45 days.

What commodities dominate Mobile's dry bulk traffic?

Top dry bulk commodities include coal (Alabama mines, export to international markets), steel products (AM/NS Calvert slabs/coils), wood pellets (biomass energy exports to Europe and Asia), and forest products (lumber, pulp). Seasonal patterns show coal exports peaking in Q3-Q4 for European winter energy demand and wood pellet exports surging in Q4-Q1.

How does Mobile compare to New Orleans and Houston?

Mobile is smaller than New Orleans (1,131 vs ~2,800 vessels) and Houston (1,131 vs ~2,400 vessels) but offers niche strengths: Tennessee-Tombigbee barge connectivity for Midwest grain/coal, proximity to Alabama steel production, and forest products from southeastern timberlands. Mobile's 25.6% container share provides diversification versus specialized energy ports.

What is APM Terminals Mobile's capacity?

APM Terminals (Maersk subsidiary) operates Mobile's primary container terminal with 1.2 million TEU annual capacity. The facility features 1,200 feet of berth, four ship-to-shore gantry cranes, and on-dock rail connections via CSX and Norfolk Southern. The terminal handled approximately 900,000-1.0 million TEUs in 2023-2024, operating at 75-85% capacity utilization.

How does Austal USA shipbuilding affect port operations?

Austal USA operates a major shipyard in Mobile constructing US Navy Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and expeditionary fast transport vessels. While shipbuilding doesn't generate traditional cargo vessel traffic, the facility imports steel, aluminum, and specialized components via Mobile's general cargo terminals, contributing to the 19.3% general cargo vessel category.

What are Mobile's country trade shares?

IMF PortWatch shows Mobile accounts for 1.47% of US maritime exports and 1.95% of imports. The slight import bias (1.95% vs 1.47%) contrasts with energy export ports and reflects consumer goods imports via containers alongside industrial exports (steel, forest products). This balanced profile indicates diversified trade flows.

Which countries are Mobile's top trading partners?

Steel exports primarily serve Central/South America (Mexico, Brazil, Colombia), Europe (Germany, Belgium), and Asia (South Korea, Taiwan). Forest products and wood pellets export to UK, Netherlands (biomass power plants), and Japan. Container imports originate from China (30-35%), Southeast Asia (20-25%), and Europe (15-20%).

How do I trade Mobile steel export volumes?

Monitor AM/NS Calvert production data (reported in ArcelorMittal quarterly earnings), US steel industry capacity utilization (American Iron and Steel Institute monthly report), and international steel prices (published by commodity price agencies). Binary markets: 'Will Mobile monthly steel exports exceed 400k tonnes?' Correlate with US-China steel trade dynamics and Section 232 tariff policy.

What seasonal patterns affect Mobile operations?

Coal and wood pellet exports peak in Q3-Q4 (European winter energy demand). Container imports surge in Q3 (September-November holiday season). Forest products exhibit less seasonality but increase slightly in Q2-Q3 (construction season). Hurricane season (June-November) creates operational risk with 3-6 disruption days annually.

How does Hurricane season impact Mobile?

Mobile experiences 3-6 days of hurricane-related disruptions annually during Gulf Coast hurricane season (June-November). Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Zeta (2020) caused significant delays. The port's location in Mobile Bay provides some storm surge protection versus open Gulf Coast ports, but sustained winds over 50 knots still force closures.

What is the Port's rail connectivity?

Mobile features on-dock rail service from CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway, enabling direct container and bulk cargo rail movements to/from Midwest, Southeast, and Texas markets. Rail intermodal services connect to Chicago, Memphis, Atlanta, and Dallas, competing with truck drayage for inland cargo beyond 250-mile radius.

Can I trade Mobile vs Savannah/Charleston spreads?

Yes, cross-port spread markets work for Southeast container traffic: Predict monthly container call difference between Savannah/Charleston and Mobile. Savannah typically handles 2.5-3.0x Mobile's container volume; spread tightening indicates Mobile gaining market share from larger ports, while widening signals concentration at mega-ports like Savannah.

How do US-China tariffs affect Mobile container imports?

Mobile handles an estimated 30-35% of container imports from China, creating exposure to Section 301 tariffs and trade policy changes. Tariff increases of 10-25 percentage points historically reduce Chinese import volumes 12-18% with 60-90 day lag, as importers shift sourcing to Vietnam, Mexico, or India. Monitor USTR tariff announcements and Chinese customs export data.

What risks affect Mobile port operations?

Key risks include hurricane season closures (June-November, 3-6 days annually), AM/NS Calvert steel mill production disruptions impacting export volumes, coal industry decline reducing dry bulk traffic, Tenn-Tom Waterway lock maintenance closures (1-2 weeks annually), and container market share loss to larger Southeast ports (Savannah, Charleston) with deeper drafts and more direct services.

Does Mobile handle forest products exports?

Yes, Mobile is a major forest products gateway for Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee timberlands. Exports include lumber (pine, hardwoods), wood pulp (paper production feedstock), and wood pellets (biomass energy). Wood pellet exports to European biomass power plants (UK, Netherlands, Belgium) have grown 40-60% since 2020 amid renewable energy transitions.

How do I monitor Mobile throughput data in real-time?

IMF PortWatch provides daily vessel tracking with call counts updated at 6 AM ET. Alabama State Port Authority publishes monthly tonnage statistics 7-10 business days after month-end. APM Terminals releases quarterly container volume data with ~30-day lag. Combine all three sources plus CSX/Norfolk Southern rail carload reports for comprehensive coverage.

Sources

Disclaimer: Trading prediction markets involves risk. Port traffic is one of many factors affecting outcomes. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.