Port of Gwangyang: South Korea's Bulk Commodity Gateway and POSCO Steel Hub

According to IMF PortWatch data, the Port of Gwangyang handles 8,840 vessels annually with 4,185 bulk carriers representing 47.3% of total traffic, establishing it as South Korea's premier bulk commodity import-export gateway anchored by POSCO Gwangyang Works—the world's third-largest integrated steel mill producing 21+ million tonnes annually. Located in South Jeolla Province on Korea's southwestern coast at coordinates 34.88°N, 127.72°E, Gwangyang Bay's natural deep-water harbor accommodates fully loaded Capesize bulk carriers (180,000-200,000 DWT) and very large ore carriers (VLOCs up to 400,000 DWT) importing approximately 40-45 million tonnes of iron ore from Australia and Brazil while exporting finished steel products to Asian construction markets, Middle East infrastructure projects, and global manufacturing sectors.

This extreme bulk carrier specialization (47.3% versus container-focused ports like Saigon at 56.6% containers or balanced facilities like Ulsan at 73.7% diverse mix) creates direct correlation between Gwangyang vessel traffic and global steel production cycles, iron ore futures pricing, and Asian construction demand. The port's 18.86% share of Korea's exports paired with 20.49% import share reflects the steel industry's dual nature: massive raw material imports (ore, coal) balanced by finished product exports (coil, plate, rebar), making Gwangyang a uniquely balanced trade indicator versus pure export (Saigon 29% export, 16% import) or import-dominant (consumer gateway) ports.

For prediction markets, Gwangyang offers exposure to Asian steel demand trajectories, Pacific Basin freight dynamics (Australia-Korea Capesize routes), Chinese steel production policy (overcapacity versus output restrictions), and infrastructure investment cycles (Middle East construction, Asian urbanization). The port's POSCO dependency (70-80% of traffic) creates concentrated exposure versus diversified facilities, amplifying both upside potential (steel demand surges) and downside risk (production curtailments).

POSCO Gwangyang Works: The 21-Million-Tonne Industrial Anchor

POSCO (Pohang Iron and Steel Company) Gwangyang Works dominates the port's operational raison d'être as an integrated steel manufacturing complex rivaling the world's largest facilities:

Scale and Production Capacity

POSCO Gwangyang operates at 21+ million tonnes annual crude steel capacity, ranking as:

• World's 3rd largest single-location steelmaker (behind China Baowu Group's Baoshan facility and ArcelorMittal's Ghent complex)
• 30% of South Korea's total steel production (70 million tonnes national output)
• POSCO Group's 50% share (POSCO operates two mega-facilities: Gwangyang 21M tonnes, Pohang 21M tonnes, combined 42M of POSCO's 45M total capacity)

Integrated Production Process

The Gwangyang complex encompasses complete steelmaking chain:

Raw material handling: Dedicated ore berths and coal terminals with automated discharge systems (60,000-80,000 tonnes daily throughput) connect via conveyor belts directly to blast furnace stockyards, eliminating costly inland trucking

Blast furnaces: Four operating units (capacity 3,000-5,500 cubic meters each) convert iron ore and coke into molten pig iron at 1,500°C temperatures through chemical reduction process

Basic oxygen furnaces (BOF): Convert pig iron into crude steel by oxygen injection removing carbon impurities, with continuous casting machines forming steel slabs/blooms/billets

Rolling mills: Hot strip mills produce coiled steel sheets for automotive and appliance applications; cold rolling mills create thin-gauge products; plate mills manufacture heavy structural steel

Coating lines: Galvanizing, electrogalvanizing, and organic coating facilities add corrosion protection and surface finish for automotive bodies, construction materials, and consumer durables

This vertical integration—from ore ship unloading to finished coil export—occurs within a single coastal industrial complex, creating extraordinary operational efficiency and logistics cost advantages versus facilities requiring inland raw material transport or multi-site processing.

Product Mix and Export Markets

POSCO Gwangyang specializes in premium steel grades commanding price premiums over commodity products:

Automotive steel (30-35% of production): Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS), ultra-high-strength steel (UHSS), electrical steel for EV motors, supplying Hyundai/Kia domestic assembly and export to global automakers (Toyota, Volkswagen, GM)

Shipbuilding plates (15-20% of production): Thick plates for hull construction and structural components, serving Korean yards (Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy, Daewoo Shipbuilding) and international shipbuilders

Construction materials (25-30% of production): Rebar, structural sections, H-beams for building and infrastructure projects across Asia-Pacific and Middle East

Energy sector products (10-15% of production): Pipeline steel for oil/gas infrastructure, structural components for offshore platforms and wind turbines

Export destination breakdown:

• Asia-Pacific (50-55%): China construction demand, Southeast Asia infrastructure (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia), Taiwan/Japan manufacturing
• Middle East (20-25%): Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 projects, UAE real estate, Qatar infrastructure, Oman industrial development
• Americas (10-15%): U.S. specialty steel (automotive, energy), Latin America construction (Mexico, Brazil)
• Europe (8-12%): Niche applications where Korean quality advantages justify shipping costs versus domestic European mills

This export intensity creates Gwangyang steel shipment volumes as leading indicators for Asian construction activity and Middle East infrastructure spending, with 60-90 day lead times between order bookings and vessel departures providing nowcasting advantages for regional economic forecasting.

Raw Material Import Flows and Pacific Basin Shipping Dynamics

POSCO Gwangyang's 40-45 million tonnes annual iron ore consumption positions it among the world's top 15-20 iron ore importers, creating massive Pacific Basin freight demand:

Australian Iron Ore Routes (Dominant Source)

Western Australia Pilbara region supplies 60-70% of Gwangyang iron ore via three major miners:

BHP Billiton exports from Port Hedland (world's largest bulk export port, 520+ million tonnes annually) shipping high-grade fines and lump ore via Capesize vessels:

• Transit time: 12-16 days covering approximately 3,200 nautical miles
• Freight rates: $8-25 per tonne (highly cyclical based on global demand)
• Ore grades: 62-64% Fe content, low impurities ideal for blast furnace efficiency

Rio Tinto ships from Dampier and Cape Lambert terminals offering similar transit times and ore quality characteristics with long-term POSCO supply contracts guaranteeing volume security

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) provides lower-grade ores (58-60% Fe) at discounted pricing, used in POSCO blending strategies to optimize cost-quality trade-offs

Vessel size optimization: Capesize carriers (180,000 DWT) dominate Australia-Korea route economics, with economies of scale reducing per-tonne freight costs 30-40% versus smaller Panamax vessels (70,000-90,000 DWT). Gwangyang's deep-water berths accommodate fully loaded Capesize arrivals, eliminating costly lightening operations required at draft-restricted ports.

Brazilian Iron Ore Routes (Secondary Source)

Vale S.A. (world's largest iron ore producer) exports 25-35% of Gwangyang imports from Brazilian terminals:

Tubarao Terminal (Vitoria, Espirito Santo state): 100+ million tonnes annual capacity shipping high-grade Carajas ore (66-67% Fe content, ultra-low phosphorus)

Ponta da Madeira Terminal (Sao Luis, Maranhao state): 200+ million tonnes capacity, world's largest iron ore export facility

Transit routing: Brazil-Korea requires 35-45 day voyages covering 11,000+ nautical miles via Cape of Good Hope (southern Africa) avoiding draft-limited Panama Canal (50,000-80,000 DWT Panamax maximum versus 180,000+ DWT Capesize requirements). This extended transit creates higher freight costs ($18-35 per tonne) but Brazilian premium ore grades justify expenses for quality-sensitive applications.

Inventory management implications: Longer Brazilian routes require POSCO maintaining 45-60 day iron ore stockpiles versus 20-30 days for Australian supplies, creating buffer inventory volatility visible in Gwangyang bulk carrier arrival patterns. Traders monitor stockpile levels (disclosed quarterly in POSCO reports) to forecast near-term import intensity.

Coking Coal Imports (Steel Production Input)

POSCO consumes 10-12 million tonnes coking coal annually (metallurgical coal converted to coke for blast furnace carbon source) imported via Gwangyang bulk carriers from:

Australia: Queensland mines (BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, Glencore, Peabody) shipping premium hard coking coal via Dalrymple Bay and Gladstone terminals

United States: Appalachian metallurgical coal (less common, higher freight costs)

Russia: Limited volumes from Far East sources via Vladivostok and Vostochny ports

Coking coal vessel calls (included in 4,185 bulk carrier total) exhibit different seasonality than iron ore (coal stockpiling ahead of winter blast furnace campaigns), creating complex bulk traffic decomposition opportunities for advanced traders.

Vessel Traffic Composition and Bulk Carrier Dominance

IMF PortWatch data reveals Gwangyang's 8,840 annual vessels with strikingly specialized composition:

| Vessel Type | Annual Calls | Percentage | Primary Cargo | Trading Significance | |-------------|--------------|------------|---------------|---------------------| | Bulk Carriers & Other | 4,185 | 47.3% | Iron ore, coking coal, steel products | Highest bulk ratio among major Asian ports, pure steel cycle indicator | | Container Ships | 1,869 | 21.1% | Petrochemicals, food products, general cargo | Diversification hedge versus steel dependency | | General Cargo | 1,611 | 18.2% | Project cargo, machinery, oversized equipment | Regional trade and industrial support | | Dry Bulk Carriers | 812 | 9.2% | Grain, fertilizer, minerals (non-ore commodities) | Agricultural and industrial commodity flows | | Tankers | 361 | 4.1% | Petroleum products, chemicals from Yeosu complex | Energy sector linkage |

The 47.3% bulk carrier concentration dramatically exceeds peer ports:

• Shanghai Pudong: 25.1% bulk carriers (diversified cargo mix)
• Singapore: ~15-20% bulk (transshipment hub emphasis)
• Ulsan: 5.3% bulk (automotive-petroleum-shipbuilding diversification)
• Saigon: 8.5% bulk (container export manufacturing dominance)

This extreme specialization creates high correlation with steel industry fundamentals (iron ore prices, Asian construction PMI, Chinese steel output) while reducing exposure to consumer discretionary cycles affecting container ports. Gwangyang vessel traffic serves as Northeast Asia's cleanest steel demand proxy available from port-level data.

Bulk carrier size distribution reflects iron ore shipping economics:

• Capesize (180,000-200,000 DWT): 35-40% of bulk calls, Australian iron ore imports
• VLOC (250,000-400,000 DWT): 5-10% of calls, Brazilian ultra-large shipments
• Panamax (70,000-90,000 DWT): 30-35% of calls, coking coal and regional bulk trades
• Handymax/Supramax (40,000-60,000 DWT): 15-20% of calls, steel product exports and minor bulks

Seasonal Patterns and Steel Production Cycles

Gwangyang exhibits four distinct quarterly patterns tied to POSCO operational calendars and Asian construction seasonality:

Q1 (January-March): Iron Ore Import Surge

Post-maintenance restocking: POSCO blast furnaces undergo major maintenance turnarounds (reline, equipment upgrades) in Q4-early Q1, with post-restart production requiring intensive ore inventory rebuilding

Spring construction preparation: Asian construction markets (China, Southeast Asia, Middle East) ramp up project activity ahead of summer weather, creating steel order surges driving POSCO production increases

Lunar New Year disruption: Korean factory closures (7-10 days late January-mid February) temporarily reduce activity 10-15%, though less pronounced than manufacturing sectors (steel production runs continuously except planned maintenance)

Binary market setup: "Gwangyang bulk carriers exceed 1,100 in Q1 2025?" captures iron ore import intensity with resolution via IMF PortWatch quarterly aggregation

Q2 (April-June): Steel Export Peak

Pre-monsoon Asian demand: Southeast Asian construction accelerates ahead of June-October monsoon season disruptions, with contractors purchasing Korean steel to ensure delivery before weather delays

Middle East project season: Moderate temperatures (versus summer extremes) enable intensive construction activity across Gulf states, driving rebar and structural steel imports from Gwangyang

Shipbuilding material deliveries: Korean yards (Hyundai, Samsung, Daewoo) receive plate steel for vessel construction projects with multi-quarter order visibility

Scalar market opportunity: "Gwangyang Q2 2024 steel export tonnage" with ranges 4.5-5.0M, 5.0-5.5M, 5.5-6.0M, 6.0-6.5M tonnes quantifying export strength magnitude

Q3 (July-September): Typhoon Disruptions and Volatility

Pacific typhoon season creates operational uncertainty:

• Vessel delays: Typhoon forecasts delay Capesize arrivals 24-48 hours as ships slow speeds or seek shelter
• Berth closures: Sustained winds over 25-30 knots suspend loading/unloading operations
• Post-storm backlogs: 3-5 days required to clear accumulated vessel queues

Summer heat demand: Asian air conditioning load drives electricity generation increases requiring thermal coal imports (though declining due to renewable transition), creating minor bulk carrier additions

Historical volatility: 5-10% month-to-month volume swings Q3 versus 2-4% Q1-Q2-Q4 stability

Q4 (October-December): Year-End Push and Maintenance Setup

Production maximization: POSCO operates blast furnaces at peak capacity to fulfill annual contracts and maximize Q4 financial performance before fiscal year-end

Pre-holiday export surge: Western and Asian customers place final orders ahead of year-end inventory accounting and Lunar New Year closures

Maintenance turnaround preparation: Gradual activity reduction in late Q4 as POSCO prepares major equipment shutdowns scheduled for Q1, reducing incremental ore import needs

Calendar spread strategy: Long Q1 bulk carrier volumes versus Short Q4 captures predictable maintenance-driven seasonal spread

Competitive Dynamics and Korean Port Hierarchy

Gwangyang's position within Korea's port system and regional steel trade:

Korean Port Specialization Comparison

| Port | Annual Vessels | Primary Focus | Export Share | Import Share | Key Differentiator | |------|----------------|---------------|--------------|--------------|-------------------| | Busan | 18,673 | Containers (54%) | 22% | 28% | Korea's largest TEU hub, balanced trade gateway | | Ulsan | 12,164 | Automotive-petroleum (74% other vessels) | 26% | 18% | Hyundai Motor/refineries, highest export intensity | | Gwangyang | 8,840 | Bulk (47%) | 19% | 20% | POSCO steel hub, bulk commodity specialization | | Incheon | ~11,000 | Containers-general cargo | 15% | 25% | Seoul region gateway, consumer imports | | Pohang | ~6,500 | Bulk (ore, coal) | 12% | 18% | POSCO sibling facility, East Sea location |

Gwangyang advantages:

• Deep-water access: 15-20 meter natural depths accommodate fully loaded Capesize/VLOC vessels without dredging
• Blast furnace proximity: Direct conveyor connections eliminate inland freight costs
• Yellow Sea positioning: Optimal routing for Australian ore imports and Chinese steel exports

Gwangyang constraints:

• POSCO dependency: 70-80% traffic concentration creates single-customer risk versus diversified ports
• Limited container growth: 21% container share lags national 7-10% container CAGR, reflecting industrial specialization
• Cyclical volatility: Steel industry boom-bust cycles create revenue uncertainty versus steady consumer gateway ports

Gwangyang-Pohang relationship: POSCO operates comparable facilities at both locations (each ~21M tonnes capacity), creating internal allocation flexibility. Shipping line routing preferences, freight rate differentials, and maintenance scheduling drive month-to-month volume shifts between sister ports. Combined traffic provides comprehensive POSCO activity indicator while individual comparison reveals operational optimization trends.

Global Steel Market Dynamics and Gwangyang Sensitivity

Gwangyang vessel volumes correlate with global steel fundamentals through multiple transmission channels:

Chinese Steel Production Dominance

China's 1+ billion tonnes annual output (55-60% global share versus Korea's 70 million tonnes at 4%) creates asymmetric influence:

Scenario 1: Chinese output restrictions (environmental crackdowns, production quotas)

• Asian steel prices rise 15-25% as supply tightens
• POSCO export opportunities expand into Chinese demand gaps
• Gwangyang steel export volumes increase 8-15%
• Trading signal: Monitor China crude steel output (National Bureau of Statistics monthly releases), environmental policy announcements

Scenario 2: Chinese overcapacity dumping

• Excess Chinese production floods Asian markets at subsidized pricing
• POSCO forced to cut output to avoid losses selling below breakeven
• Gwangyang iron ore imports decline 10-20%, steel exports contract 15-25%
• Trading signal: Track China steel export volumes, anti-dumping complaints, pricing below cost

Historical example: 2015-2016 China steel capacity cuts (150 million tonnes eliminated) drove Asian price recovery from $250/tonne to $600+/tonne hot-rolled coil, enabling POSCO production increases and Gwangyang throughput growth 12-18%.

Iron Ore Futures and Freight Derivatives

Iron ore pricing (Singapore Exchange TSI, CME futures) directly impacts POSCO raw material costs and production economics:

High ore prices ($120-180/tonne)

• Squeeze POSCO margins unless steel prices rise proportionally
• May incentivize production cuts if margins turn negative
• Accelerate stockpiling ahead of anticipated further increases
• Gwangyang impact: Bulk carrier volatility increases as POSCO times purchases around price movements

Low ore prices ($60-90/tonne)

• Expand POSCO margins enabling production increases
• Reduce inventory-holding urgency as procurement flexibility increases
• Gwangyang impact: Steadier bulk carrier flows with less speculative timing

Capesize freight rates (Baltic Exchange C5 route Australia-China as proxy) affect delivered ore costs:

• High freight ($30-50/tonne): POSCO seeks alternative suppliers or defers non-urgent purchases
• Low freight ($8-15/tonne): Opportunistic procurement accelerates
• Correlation trading: Long Gwangyang bulk carriers when C5 freight declines (lower delivered costs incentivize imports)

Asian Construction PMI and Infrastructure Spending

Construction activity across POSCO's export markets drives steel demand:

China construction PMI (50+ expansion, fewer than 50 contraction):

• 50+ PMI predicts Gwangyang steel export increases 30-45 days forward (order lag + production + shipping)
• fewer than 50 PMI forecasts demand weakness and potential export declines

Middle East infrastructure projects:

• Saudi Vision 2030 ($500+ billion budgeted)
• UAE Economic Vision 2030
• Qatar post-World Cup infrastructure continuation
• Lead time: Project announcements → tender awards → steel procurement → Gwangyang shipments (6-12 month cycle)

ASEAN infrastructure development:

• Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia urbanization drives rebar demand
• Regional proximity favors Korean steel versus European/American competitors

Trading Strategies and Prediction Market Mechanics

Binary Market Structures

Quarterly threshold markets on bulk carrier intensity:

"Gwangyang bulk carriers exceed 1,100 in Q1 2025?"

• Historical Q1 range: 1,000-1,150 bulk carriers (high iron ore import quarter)
• Resolution: IMF PortWatch quarterly vessel count aggregation
• Probability factors:
  • YES drivers: Strong Chinese construction outlook, low iron ore prices incentivizing stockpiling, POSCO production guidance increases
  • NO drivers: Weak Asian construction PMI, Chinese steel output restrictions reducing competitive pressure on POSCO, extended blast furnace maintenance
• Base rate calibration: Historical frequency shows Q1 exceeding 1,100 bulk carriers in 3 of past 5 years (60% baseline)

"POSCO announces production cuts by Q2 2025?"

• Trigger events: Steel price collapses below $400/tonne HRC, Chinese overcapacity dumping, Korean won appreciation hurting export competitiveness
• Resolution: POSCO official press releases or quarterly earnings disclosures
• Gwangyang correlation: Production cuts predict bulk carrier declines -10-15% within 45-60 days

Scalar Market Structures

Annual iron ore import tonnage ranges:

"Gwangyang iron ore imports 2024 (million tonnes)"

• Range buckets:
  • 38-40M tonnes: 20% probability (weak demand scenario, production curtailments)
  • 40-42M tonnes: 35% probability (base case stable operations)
  • 42-44M tonnes: 30% probability (strong demand, capacity maximization)
  • 44-46M tonnes: 15% probability (exceptional growth, market share gains)
• Expected value: 41-42M tonnes baseline
• Resolution: Korean Customs import statistics (annual aggregation) or POSCO annual report disclosures
• Trading: Buy undervalued probability buckets based on China construction outlook and POSCO guidance

Spread and Correlation Markets

Gwangyang versus Port Hedland inverse correlation:

• Market: "Gwangyang bulk carrier arrivals grow faster than Port Hedland departures 2024?"
• Thesis: Australian ore supply shifts between Chinese demand (Port Hedland's 80% destination) and Korean demand (Gwangyang) based on relative steel production strength
• Data: IMF PortWatch vessel counts for both ports
• Resolution: Calculate year-over-year growth rates, compare differential

Gwangyang versus Rotterdam steel demand spread:

• Market: "Asia-Europe steel demand differential (Gwangyang-Rotterdam volume growth spread) exceeds 5 percentage points 2024?"
• Thesis: Asian infrastructure spending outpaces European construction activity, driving higher Gwangyang throughput growth
• Resolution: IMF PortWatch vessel count growth calculations

Data Sources, Verification, and Resolution Mechanics

Authoritative sources for Gwangyang prediction market resolution:

Primary Data Providers

IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/):

• 8,840 total vessels, 4,185 bulk carriers, vessel type classifications
• Weekly updates providing nowcasting versus monthly/quarterly official statistics
• Free public access ensuring transparent resolution mechanics

Korea Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries:

• Comprehensive port statistics by cargo type, tonnage, and origin/destination
• Monthly releases with 30-45 day lags
• Breaks down bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grain) enabling granular analysis

Gwangyang Port Authority:

• Annual Statistical Yearbook with berth utilization, vessel size distributions, operational metrics
• 60-90 day publication lag limits real-time trading utility but validates full-year forecasts

POSCO Holdings:

• Quarterly earnings releases disclose production volumes (crude steel tonnes), raw material consumption, export destinations
• Annual sustainability reports detail environmental metrics, capacity plans, technology investments
• Investor presentations provide forward guidance on production outlook

Korean Customs Service:

• Import/export statistics by HS commodity code, country of origin/destination, tonnage and value
• 30-45 day lags enable verification of port-level data
• Iron ore imports (HS 2601) and steel products exports (HS 72) provide tonnage cross-references

Cross-Reference Validation Methodology

Responsible market resolution cross-checks multiple sources:

• IMF PortWatch bulk carrier counts × average Capesize capacity (180,000 DWT) × 0.9 load factor = estimated iron ore tonnage
• Compare to Korean Customs iron ore import statistics (should align within 5-10%)
• Validate against POSCO disclosed raw material consumption in annual reports
• Discrepancies exceeding 10% trigger investigation and source reconciliation before market settlement

Risk Factors and Trading Considerations

Industrial Concentration Risk

POSCO dependency: 70-80% of Gwangyang traffic derives from single customer, creating asymmetric exposure to POSCO-specific events (labor strikes, equipment failures, strategic shifts) versus diversified ports where single tenant disruptions have limited system impact

Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risks

U.S./EU steel tariffs: Section 232 tariffs (25% U.S. steel duties, though Korea largely exempt under quota agreements) and EU safeguard measures restrict POSCO export access to Western markets, potentially forcing Asian market concentration where Chinese competition intensifies

China-Korea trade tensions: Periodic political disputes (THAAD missile defense controversy 2017) create trade flow disruptions and steel demand volatility

Environmental Transition Uncertainties

Carbon neutrality mandates: Korea's 2050 net-zero commitment and steel sector 30% emissions reduction target (2030 versus 2018) require POSCO investments in hydrogen direct reduction, electric arc furnaces, and carbon capture—potentially reducing coking coal imports while increasing natural gas/hydrogen fuel needs, fundamentally altering Gwangyang cargo mix long-term

Climate and Weather Risks

Typhoon intensity increases: Climate change models project stronger Pacific storms affecting Korea's coast, potentially increasing operational disruption frequency from current 2-3 significant events annually to 4-6 events creating 10-15% volume volatility spikes

Related Facilities and Global Steel Trade Network

Korean Industrial Ports

• Busan - Container mega-hub, Korea's largest port with balanced trade
• Ulsan - Automotive-petroleum-shipbuilding diversification model
• Pohang - POSCO sibling facility, East Sea iron ore imports

Pacific Basin Ore Origins

• Port Hedland - World's largest bulk export port, Australian Pilbara iron ore
• Dampier - Rio Tinto primary export terminal
• Tubarao - Vale Brazilian ore exports via Atlantic-Cape routing

Asian Steel Gateways

• Qingdao - Northern China steel hub, Baosteel/Angang gateway
• Ningbo-Zhoushan - World's busiest cargo tonnage port, Chinese bulk focus
• Singapore - Regional steel product redistribution hub

Critical Shipping Corridors

• Strait of Malacca - Australia-Korea iron ore routing via Southeast Asia passage
• Cape of Good Hope - Brazil-Korea VLOC routing avoiding Panama Canal draft limits

Educational Resources

• Prediction Markets 101 - Binary and scalar market mechanics
• Reading Port Signals - Vessel traffic interpretation for commodity trading
• Chokepoint Risk - Maritime corridor disruption assessment

Sources and Data Accuracy

All vessel statistics, production capacities, and trade flows cited derive from authoritative sources accessed October 25, 2025:

• IMF PortWatch: Vessel counts, bulk carrier classifications, AIS tracking data
• Korea Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries: Port cargo statistics, tonnage breakdowns
• Gwangyang Port Authority: Statistical Yearbook, operational metrics
• POSCO Holdings: Annual reports, production disclosures, sustainability reports
• Korean Customs Service: Import/export statistics by commodity code
• World Steel Association: Global production statistics, industry forecasts
• Korea Iron and Steel Association: Domestic market analysis, trade data

Cross-referencing these official sources ensures data integrity for prediction market resolution and trading analysis accuracy.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Trading prediction markets involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Past vessel traffic patterns and steel industry cycles do not guarantee future performance. Gwangyang's throughput reflects complex interactions between global steel demand, iron ore pricing, Asian construction activity, and POSCO-specific operational decisions beyond forecasting models. Port volumes are subject to weather events, geopolitical disruptions, and structural industry transitions (environmental regulations, technology shifts). Consult official sources and conduct independent research before trading.