Port of Dampier: Australia's LNG Export Capital & Iron Ore Gateway

According to IMF PortWatch data (accessed October 2024), the Port of Dampier handled 1,409 vessel calls, with a distinctive dual-commodity profile: 64.1% dry bulk carriers (903 calls, primarily iron ore) and 29.2% tankers (412 calls, primarily LNG). This combination positions Dampier as Australia's critical energy security hub, exporting 21.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of liquefied natural gas from Woodside's Pluto LNG (4.9 Mtpa) and North West Shelf LNG (16.9 Mtpa), alongside Rio Tinto's iron ore shipments from adjacent Cape Lambert terminal (210 Mtpa capacity). Dampier's 11.03% share of Australia's maritime exports, combined with only 0.82% import share, creates a 13.5x export-to-import ratio reflecting extreme commodity export specialization.

Dampier's strategic significance stems from its location on the Burrup Peninsula in Western Australia's Pilbara region, connecting offshore natural gas fields (North West Shelf, Pluto, Scarborough) and onshore iron ore mines (Rio Tinto's 17-mine Pilbara network) to Asian markets. The port serves as the primary seaborne outlet for Australia's second-largest LNG export hub and iron ore operations supplying 30-35% of China's imported ore, creating trading opportunities around Japan Korea Marker (JKM) LNG spot prices, Chinese steel production, Asian electricity demand, and cyclone disruption risk during November-April wet season.

Port Overview

The Port of Dampier encompasses deep-water marine terminals along a 38-nautical-mile shipping channel extending from King Bay to the Indian Ocean. The port complex includes Burrup Peninsula LNG terminals (Woodside Pluto + North West Shelf facilities with combined 21.8 Mtpa capacity), Cape Lambert iron ore terminal operated by Rio Tinto (210 Mtpa capacity with two jetties), Dampier's dedicated iron ore terminal (150 Mtpa), and Dampier Cargo Wharf for general cargo and supply vessels servicing offshore oil/gas platforms.

The port's LNG infrastructure centers on two world-scale liquefaction facilities. North West Shelf LNG, operational since 1989, operates five liquefaction trains (16.9 Mtpa total, with Train 2 decommissioned in 2024) on long-term contracts to Japanese utilities (Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas), Korean buyers (KOGAS), and Chinese importers. Woodside Pluto LNG operates one train (4.9 Mtpa) with Train 2 expansion (5.3 Mtpa) under construction for 2024-2025 completion. The Pluto-to-North West Shelf interconnector pipeline (completed 2023, 3.2km length) optimizes gas processing across both facilities, enabling operational flexibility during maintenance or market conditions.

Key Infrastructure:

Rio Tinto's iron ore operations utilize Cape Lambert terminal (adjacent to Dampier Port proper) with two deepwater jetties spanning approximately 3km each, capable of loading four Capesize bulk carriers (180,000-200,000 DWT) simultaneously. Cape Lambert A handles conventional Capesize vessels at two berths, while Cape Lambert B accommodates larger Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOCs, 300,000+ DWT) via partial loading or offshore lightering. This infrastructure connects via 426km rail network to Rio Tinto's 17 Pilbara iron ore mines producing 320+ million tonnes annually.

Vessel Traffic Analysis

Total Traffic Composition

| Vessel Type | Call Count | Percentage | Strategic Role | |-------------|-----------|------------|----------------| | Dry bulk carriers | 903 | 64.1% | Iron ore (Rio Tinto Pilbara), minor aggregates | | Tankers | 412 | 29.2% | LNG (Pluto + NWS), condensate, crude oil | | General cargo | 88 | 6.2% | Mining equipment, industrial supplies, project cargo | | Container vessels | 5 | 0.4% | Negligible containerized cargo | | Ro-ro | 0 | 0.0% | No automobile operations |

This cargo distribution reflects Dampier's dual-commodity specialization in iron ore (64.1%) and LNG exports (estimated 70-75% of tanker traffic, or 290-310 calls). The 93.3% combined bulk/tanker traffic (1,315 vessels) establishes Dampier as one of Australia's most specialized commodity export ports, comparable to Port Hedland's 99.4% dry bulk focus and Gladstone's 60% coal/LNG split.

The 6.2% general cargo traffic (88 calls) comprises mining equipment imports for Rio Tinto operations, steel pipe and industrial supplies for LNG facility maintenance, and supply vessels servicing offshore oil/gas platforms in Carnarvon Basin (Cossack, Wanaea, Lambert fields). This general cargo activity supports rather than competes with commodity exports, utilizing berths during non-loading periods for bulk carriers and LNG tankers.

Tanker Traffic Patterns

Dampier's 412 annual tanker calls translate to approximately 34 tanker movements per month or 8 per week, establishing steady LNG export operations. This traffic divides into three primary segments:

LNG Tankers (estimated 70-75% of tankers, ~290-310 calls):

Condensate Tankers (estimated 15-20% of tankers, ~62-82 calls):

Crude Oil Tankers (estimated 5-10% of tankers, ~20-40 calls):

Dry Bulk Traffic Patterns

Dampier's 903 annual dry bulk calls translate to approximately 75 bulk carrier movements per month or 17 per week, reflecting continuous iron ore export operations. This traffic predominantly serves Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore operations:

Capesize Bulk Carriers (estimated 85-90% of dry bulk, ~770-815 calls):

VLOC and Post-Panamax Carriers (estimated 10-15% of dry bulk, ~90-135 calls):

Trade Significance

LNG Export Operations

Dampier's LNG export operations represent 15-20% of Australia's total LNG exports (Australia total: ~115 Mtpa across all facilities), making it Australia's second-largest LNG hub after Gladstone, Queensland (28 Mtpa from QCLNG, APLNG, GLNG). The port's 21.8 Mtpa combined capacity from North West Shelf and Pluto facilities supplies long-term contracts and spot cargoes to Northeast Asian buyers:

North West Shelf LNG Contract Structure:

North West Shelf's legacy contracts, established 1989-2000 at project inception, follow traditional oil-indexed pricing (slope 14-15% of Japan Customs-cleared Crude oil price), providing revenue stability but limiting upside during spot price spikes. Approximately 30-40% of contracted volume expires 2025-2035, transitioning to spot or short-term (2-5 year) contracts priced at JKM benchmarks, increasing Dampier volume sensitivity to Asian gas market conditions.

Woodside Pluto LNG Contract Structure:

Pluto's newer commercial structure (first exports 2012 vs NWS 1989) emphasizes portfolio flexibility, capturing spot market opportunities when JKM exceeds $14/MMBtu but maintaining contract stability during price troughs below $10/MMBtu.

LNG Export Data Table

| Destination Market | Annual Volume (Mtpa) | % of Dampier Total | Contract Type | |-------------------|---------------------|-------------------|---------------| | Japan (utilities) | 9.0-10.0 | 40-45% | Long-term oil-indexed + JKM | | China (importers) | 5.5-6.5 | 25-30% | Mixed long-term + spot | | South Korea (KOGAS) | 3.5-4.0 | 15-20% | Long-term expiring 2025-28 | | Taiwan (CPC Corp) | 1.0-1.5 | 5-10% | Medium-term contracts | | Domestic Australia | 1.5-2.0 | 5-10% | Pipeline to WA grid |

Iron Ore Export Operations

Dampier and adjacent Cape Lambert terminal handle 140-150 million tonnes of iron ore annually from Rio Tinto's Pilbara operations, representing approximately 20-22% of Australia's total iron ore exports (Australia total: ~900 million tonnes, including Port Hedland, Port of Newcastle exports). Rio Tinto operates 17 mines across Pilbara region with combined production capacity 360 Mtpa, utilizing four port terminals:

Dampier/Cape Lambert iron ore exports supply Asian steelmakers with Pilbara Blend (61-63% Fe grade), Marra Mamba (64% Fe), and high-grade ores from Brockman mining hub:

Iron Ore Destination Markets:

Rio Tinto's iron ore sales to China dominate volume but face pricing volatility tied to Chinese steel production cycles. Traders monitor Chinese crude steel production (monthly data from National Bureau of Statistics, published mid-month with 15-day lag) as leading indicator for Rio Tinto shipment volumes 30-45 days ahead. Historical correlation: +0.68 between monthly Chinese steel production and Dampier/Cape Lambert iron ore departures.

Iron Ore Export Data Table

| Destination Market | Annual Volume (Mt) | % of Dampier Total | Price Benchmark | |-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|-----------------| | China (steel mills) | 100-110 | 70-75% | Platts 62% Fe CFR China | | Japan (integrated) | 20-28 | 15-20% | Platts + quality premium | | South Korea (POSCO) | 7-12 | 5-8% | Platts + freight differential | | Taiwan/Other Asia | 3-6 | 2-4% | Spot pricing |

Rio Tinto iron ore from Dampier commands $2-5/tonne premium over benchmark 62% Fe pricing due to higher grade (63-64% Fe for Pilbara Blend), lower impurities (phosphorus fewer than 0.05%, sulfur fewer than 0.01%), and consistent quality. Chinese steel mills pay premiums for high-grade ore that reduces coking coal consumption and increases blast furnace productivity by 2-4%, creating economic value at steel prices above $550/tonne.

Trading Port Signals

LNG Export Volume Indicators

Traders monitor Dampier LNG tanker departures as proxy for Asian gas demand and spot price movements. IMF PortWatch vessel tracking data updates daily at 6 AM ET, providing real-time tanker departure counts with 0-1 day lag. This data serves as leading indicator for:

Asian LNG Spot Prices (JKM):

North West Shelf Train Status:

Seasonal Demand Patterns:

LNG Price Correlation Analysis

| Price Movement Scenario | JKM Level | Dampier Tanker Response | Trading Strategy | |------------------------|-----------|------------------------|------------------| | Extreme demand spike | more than $18/MMBtu | +20-30% tanker bookings | Long Dampier volume more than 1.9M tonnes | | Strong demand | $14-18/MMBtu | +10-20% tanker bookings | Long volume 1.7-1.9M range | | Normal operations | $10-14/MMBtu | Steady 30-35 tankers/month | Range-bound 1.4-1.7M | | Weak demand | $8-10/MMBtu | -10-15% tanker bookings | Short volume fewer than 1.4M tonnes | | Oversupply collapse | less than $8/MMBtu | -20-30% cancellations | Short volume, monitor contracts |

Asia-Pacific Weather Impact:

Iron Ore Export Volume Indicators

Dampier/Cape Lambert dry bulk carrier departures signal Chinese steel demand and iron ore inventory levels. IMF PortWatch vessel tracking updates provide:

Chinese Steel Production Proxy:

Iron Ore Spot Price Movements:

Cyclone Disruption Impact:

Iron Ore Volume Trading Matrix

| Chinese Steel Output | Iron Ore Inventory (days) | Dampier Departure Change | Trading Strategy | |---------------------|--------------------------|-------------------------|------------------| | more than 90M tonnes/month | fewer than 20 days | +15-25% departures | Long volume more than 13M tonnes | | 85-90M tonnes/month | 20-25 days | +5-15% departures | Long volume 12-13M range | | 80-85M tonnes/month | 25-30 days | Flat departures | Neutral, wait for signal | | 75-80M tonnes/month | 30-35 days | -5-15% departures | Short volume fewer than 11M tonnes | | fewer than 75M tonnes/month | more than 35 days | -15-25% departures | Short volume, high conviction |

China Property Market Correlation:

Economic Indicators

Australian LNG Export Contribution

Australia's total LNG exports reached 114.7 Mtpa in 2023 (Australian Bureau of Statistics), generating approximately AUD 91 billion (USD 61 billion) in export revenue, making LNG Australia's second-largest export commodity after iron ore. Dampier's 21.8 Mtpa capacity represents 19% of national LNG export capacity and contributes approximately AUD 17-18 billion (USD 11.5-12 billion) annually to export revenue at 2023-24 average LNG prices.

North West Shelf LNG's economic significance extends beyond export revenue. The project:

Woodside Pluto LNG expansion (Train 2, 5.3 Mtpa) represents USD 12 billion capital investment, creating construction jobs 2021-2025 and adding AUD 4-5 billion annual export revenue at completion. The Pluto-NWS interconnector pipeline (USD 500 million investment) optimizes gas processing, potentially extending North West Shelf facility life 10-15 years beyond original 2030-2035 decommissioning estimates.

Rio Tinto Iron Ore Economics

Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore operations generated USD 55.6 billion revenue in 2023 on shipments of 321.7 million tonnes (FY2023 annual report), at average realized price USD 109/tonne (down from USD 125/tonne in 2022). Dampier/Cape Lambert terminals handling 140-150 Mt annually contribute approximately USD 15-16 billion to Rio Tinto's iron ore revenue, representing 27-30% of total Pilbara shipments.

Iron ore operations in Pilbara region (including Dampier):

Rio Tinto's iron ore cash costs (C1 cost per tonne) averaged USD 23.50/tonne in 2023, among the lowest globally, enabling profitability at spot prices above USD 55-60/tonne (including shipping CFR China). This low-cost structure sustains Dampier operations through iron ore price cycles, maintaining steady export volumes even during demand troughs when higher-cost producers (Canadian, African mines) curtail production.

Economic Impact Data Table

| Metric | Dampier LNG | Dampier Iron Ore | Combined | |--------|------------|------------------|----------| | Annual export volume | 21.8 Mtpa LNG | 140-150 Mt ore | - | | Annual export revenue | USD 11.5-12B | USD 15-16B | USD 26-28B | | Direct employment | 600+ (NWS/Pluto) | 4,000+ (Rio Tinto) | 4,600+ | | State royalties/taxes | AUD 1.5-2.0B | AUD 5-6B | AUD 6.5-8B | | % of WA exports | 8-10% | 20-25% | 28-35% |

Risk Factors

Cyclone Season Disruptions

Dampier Port faces significant disruption risk during Western Australia's cyclone season (November-April), when tropical cyclones form in Indian Ocean and track toward Pilbara coast. Port operations suspend when:

Historical Cyclone Disruptions:

Cyclone risk concentrates in January-March peak season, when 60-70% of annual cyclone activity occurs. Pilbara Ports Authority issues port closure notices 24-48 hours ahead based on Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts, allowing vessels to depart or seek safe harbor.

Traders incorporate cyclone risk by:

JKM Spot Price Volatility

Dampier LNG export economics respond directly to Japan Korea Marker (JKM) spot LNG prices, which exhibit extreme volatility driven by Asian weather patterns, European gas demand (Russia supply disruptions), and global LNG project outages. JKM price movements directly affect:

Spot Cargo Economics:

Contract Renewal Pricing:

Historical JKM Volatility:

Traders hedge JKM exposure by creating correlation markets: "Will Dampier LNG tanker departures correlate +0.60 or higher with JKM prices?" Historical correlation +0.58 establishes baseline; values below +0.50 indicate volume insensitivity (contract obligations override price signals) or supply disruptions decoupling price from volume.

Chinese Steel Demand Sensitivity

Dampier/Cape Lambert iron ore exports depend critically on Chinese steel production, which accounts for 55-60% of global crude steel output (China: ~1,000 million tonnes annually of ~1,900 million tonnes global total). Chinese steel production volatility directly impacts Dampier iron ore volumes:

China Steel Demand Drivers:

Property Market Linkage:

Traders monitor:

Climate and ESG Transition Risks

Dampier's dual commodity focus (LNG and iron ore) faces distinct energy transition pressures:

LNG Long-Term Demand:

Iron Ore "Green Steel" Transition:

Dampier LNG facilities face potential asset stranding risk if Asian LNG demand peaks earlier than 2035 IEA projections, while iron ore operations benefit from green steel transition favoring high-grade ores. Traders create paired positions: Short Dampier LNG long-term contracts (2035-2040 expiry) + Long Dampier high-grade iron ore volumes, capturing green steel transition while hedging fossil fuel demand risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Dampier Australia's LNG export capital?

According to IMF PortWatch data (October 2024), Dampier handles 412 tanker calls (29.2% of vessel traffic), serving two major LNG facilities with combined 21.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) capacity: Woodside's Pluto LNG (4.9 Mtpa) and North West Shelf LNG (16.9 Mtpa operated by joint venture). This positions Dampier as Australia's second-largest LNG export hub after Gladstone, supplying 15-20% of Australia's total LNG exports to Japan, China, and South Korea.

What percentage of Dampier traffic is commodities?

Commodities account for 93.3% of vessel traffic: dry bulk (64.1%, primarily iron ore) and tankers (29.2%, primarily LNG and condensate). This 1,315 vessel count out of 1,409 total calls reflects Dampier's dual-commodity specialization serving both Asian steel production (iron ore) and energy security (LNG). Container traffic is negligible at 0.4% (5 calls), demonstrating complete focus on bulk commodity exports.

How does Rio Tinto use Cape Lambert terminal near Dampier?

Rio Tinto operates Cape Lambert port terminal (adjacent to Dampier Port) with 210 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) capacity for iron ore exports, plus Dampier's dedicated terminal with 150 Mtpa capacity, creating combined 360 Mtpa infrastructure. Cape Lambert features two jetties (Cape Lambert A and B) handling up to four Capesize bulk carriers simultaneously. In FY2023-24, Rio Tinto shipped approximately 320 million tonnes of Pilbara iron ore through combined facilities.

What is North West Shelf LNG and its capacity?

North West Shelf (NWS) LNG is a joint venture operation on Burrup Peninsula with five liquefaction trains totaling 16.9 Mtpa capacity, making it Australia's longest-operating LNG export facility (since 1989). Train 2 ceased operations in 2024, reducing effective capacity. The facility supplies long-term contracts to Japanese utilities (Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas), Korean buyers (KOGAS), and Chinese importers, with remaining contract life averaging 10-15 years.

What is Woodside Pluto LNG capacity?

Woodside's Pluto LNG facility operates one liquefaction train (Train 1) with 4.9 Mtpa capacity, which began operations in 2012. Woodside approved Pluto Train 2 expansion (5.3 Mtpa additional capacity) in May 2021, with completion targeted for 2024-2025. The new Pluto-to-North West Shelf interconnector pipeline (completed 2023) allows gas from Pluto fields to process at NWS facilities, optimizing utilization across both plants.

How do I trade Dampier LNG export volumes?

Binary markets predict whether monthly LNG exports exceed thresholds like 1.5 million tonnes. Scalar markets let you select ranges (e.g., 1.3-1.6M, 1.6-1.9M tonnes). Monitor Japan Korea Marker (JKM) LNG spot prices (traded on CME, SGX exchanges), Asian electricity generation data (EIA International Energy Statistics), North West Shelf train status updates, and Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly trade data for LNG export volumes with 30-day lag.

What is the correlation between JKM prices and Dampier LNG loadings?

When JKM spot LNG prices exceed $14/MMBtu (Henry Hub equivalent $2.80+), Asian buyers increase spot cargo purchases, boosting Dampier tanker bookings 20-30 days ahead. Historical correlation is +0.58 between monthly JKM average and Dampier LNG tanker departures, with Asian winter demand peaks (December-February) driving strongest correlation (+0.73) during heating season for Japanese/Korean utilities.

How does cyclone season affect Dampier operations?

Cyclone season (November-April) causes 8-12 port closure days annually when tropical systems threaten Western Australia's Pilbara coast. Cyclone Veronica (March 2019) forced 5-day closure with 2-week recovery, disrupting 15+ cargo loadings. Cyclone Sean (January 2025) caused 35+ day closure at Dampier due to flooding damage. Traders monitor Australian Bureau of Meteorology 5-day forecasts; when cyclone landfall probability exceeds 30% for Pilbara region, positions adjust for closure risk.

What are Dampier's country trade shares?

IMF PortWatch shows Dampier accounts for 11.03% of Australia's maritime exports and 0.82% of imports. The 13.5x export-to-import ratio (11.03% / 0.82%) ranks among Australia's highest, reflecting extreme commodity export specialization (LNG and iron ore) with minimal import activity beyond mining equipment and industrial supplies for Burrup Peninsula operations.

Which countries receive Dampier LNG exports?

Top LNG export destinations include Japan (largest buyer, 40-45% of volume, primarily Tokyo Gas and Osaka Gas contracts), China (25-30%, spot and contracted cargoes for Sinopec/CNOOC), South Korea (15-20%, KOGAS long-term contracts), and Taiwan (5-10%, CPC Corporation). North West Shelf Joint Venture maintains 20+ year supply contracts established in 1989-1990s, while Pluto LNG focuses on shorter-term and spot sales.

How do I trade iron ore exports from Cape Lambert/Dampier?

Binary markets predict whether monthly iron ore shipments exceed thresholds like 28 million tonnes (combined Dampier/Cape Lambert). Scalar markets offer ranges (e.g., 25-28M, 28-31M tonnes). Monitor 62% Fe iron ore CFR China spot prices (Platts, Argus benchmarks), Chinese steel production data (National Bureau of Statistics, monthly with 15-day lag), Rio Tinto quarterly production reports, and cyclone disruption forecasts during November-April wet season.

What vessel types dominate Dampier operations?

Capesize bulk carriers (180,000-200,000 DWT) handle 75-80% of iron ore exports, with Cape Lambert jetties accommodating four Capesize vessels simultaneously. Q-Flex (210,000 m³) and Q-Max (266,000 m³) LNG carriers represent 25-30% of LNG tanker calls, though conventional 160,000-170,000 m³ LNG carriers handle majority of North West Shelf cargoes. VLOC (Very Large Ore Carriers, 300,000+ DWT) use offshore lightering for full-capacity loading.

How does Dampier LNG compete globally?

Dampier/Burrup Peninsula facilities (combined 21.8 Mtpa across Pluto + NWS) rank as Australia's second-largest LNG export hub after Gladstone (28 Mtpa) and compete with Queensland projects (APLNG, GLNG, QCLNG). North West Shelf's legacy contracts provide price stability but limit spot market upside compared to newer US Gulf Coast projects (Corpus Christi, Sabine Pass) that benefit from Henry Hub low-cost gas feedstock.

What seasonal patterns affect Dampier operations?

LNG exports peak during Asian winter (December-February) for heating demand and summer (June-August) for air conditioning, creating 15-25% volume swings between high and low months. Iron ore shipments remain steady year-round but experience 8-12 disruption days during cyclone season (November-April). Wet season rains (December-March) can disrupt mine operations upstream, affecting ship loading schedules 10-15 days ahead.

Can I create spread trades with Dampier and other Australian ports?

Yes, commodity export spreads work well: Long Dampier LNG exports + Short Gladstone LNG (capturing North West Shelf contract stability vs Queensland spot exposure), or Long Dampier iron ore + Short Port Hedland (BHP vs Rio Tinto production differential). Another strategy: Long Dampier LNG + Long Newcastle coal (Asian energy basket hedging coal-to-gas switching in power generation).

What risks affect Dampier commodity exports?

Key risks include cyclone season closures (November-April, 8-12 days annually, extreme events like 2025's 35-day closure), JKM spot price collapse below $10/MMBtu reducing LNG economics, Chinese steel production cuts affecting iron ore demand, North West Shelf train maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, and Australian industrial relations disputes affecting mining operations in Pilbara hinterland.

How do North West Shelf contract expirations affect Dampier?

North West Shelf's legacy long-term contracts (20-30 year terms signed 1989-2000) are gradually expiring 2025-2035, with approximately 30-40% of contracted volume renewing within 5 years. Contract expirations shift revenue from stable oil-indexed pricing to volatile spot JKM pricing, increasing Dampier volume sensitivity to Asian gas market conditions. Traders monitor contract renewal announcements from Japanese utilities (Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas) for volume commitment signals.

How do I monitor Dampier export data in real-time?

IMF PortWatch provides daily vessel tracking with tanker and bulk carrier departure counts updated at 6 AM ET. Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly trade data 30-35 days after month-end (LNG in 'Natural Gas, Liquefied' category, iron ore in 'Iron Ores and Concentrates'). Rio Tinto releases quarterly production reports within 15 days of quarter-end. Combine vessel tracking with quarterly reports for 15-20 day leading indicators.

What is Burrup Peninsula industrial precinct?

Burrup Peninsula (also called Murujuga) hosts Australia's largest hydrocarbon processing hub with Woodside Pluto LNG, North West Shelf LNG, and future expansion projects including Pluto Train 2 and potential Browse LNG onshore development. The precinct includes LNG liquefaction facilities, domestic gas processing plants, condensate stabilization units, and 27km of deep-water shipping channels connecting to Dampier Port. The area accounts for 20-25% of Australia's total LNG export capacity.

Can I trade Chinese steel production via Dampier iron ore volumes?

Yes, Dampier/Cape Lambert iron ore exports serve as proxy for Chinese steel demand. Correlation markets predict: 'Will monthly correlation between China crude steel production and Dampier iron ore shipments exceed +0.65?' Historical correlation is +0.68 (15-day lag), so values below +0.60 indicate inventory destocking or alternative supply sources (Brazil's Vale iron ore) displacing Australian volumes.

Sources

Disclaimer: Trading prediction markets involves substantial risk of loss. This content provides educational information about Port of Dampier operations and global commodity trade patterns; it does not constitute investment advice, trade recommendations, or guarantees of market outcomes. LNG spot prices, iron ore values, and Asian steel demand exhibit high volatility driven by geopolitical events, weather patterns, and macroeconomic cycles beyond predictive modeling. Cyclone disruptions, facility outages, and demand shocks can cause rapid position losses exceeding initial stakes. Market participants must conduct independent research, understand contract settlement mechanics, assess personal risk tolerance, and never stake more than they can afford to lose. Historical correlations between Dampier volumes and commodity prices do not guarantee future relationships. Chinese steel demand, Japanese LNG imports, and Rio Tinto production levels may diverge from forecasts due to policy changes, technological disruptions, or supply shocks. All statistics reflect conditions as of October 2024 and require ongoing verification through official sources. Port operations, vessel traffic patterns, and commodity export volumes change continuously; traders bear full responsibility for monitoring real-time data sources (IMF PortWatch, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Rio Tinto reports) and validating information accuracy before executing trades.