Port of Cartagena: Caribbean Transshipment Hub & Colombian Gateway

The Port of Cartagena closed 2024 with a record 3,702,044 TEUs (+7.6% year-over-year), exceeding its design capacity and solidifying its position as the Caribbean's premier transshipment hub. For traders monitoring Caribbean logistics flows and Colombian trade patterns, Cartagena's dual role as regional redistribution center and Colombian export gateway provides multiple angles for prediction market strategies.

Why Port of Cartagena Matters

The Port of Cartagena operates at the intersection of Caribbean transshipment and Colombian international trade, combining regional hub operations with substantial hinterland connectivity. Located within 150 nautical miles of the Panama Canal in the Caribbean transshipment corridor, Cartagena serves as a critical node where transatlantic and transpacific liner services converge for redistribution throughout Latin America and Caribbean island markets.

With 50%+ transshipment incidence, Cartagena redistributes containers to Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Trinidad, and Central American ports via extensive feeder networks. Simultaneously, it handles 60%+ of Colombia-U.S. bilateral trade, serving as the principal export gateway for Colombian coffee (30.2% of national exports), flowers (2nd largest global exporter), and manufactured goods valued at billions annually.

The port's strategic location in Cartagena Bay provides a deep natural harbor with 14+ meter depths, capable of handling Post-Panamax vessels with modern terminal infrastructure. Combined operations across Sociedad Portuaria Regional de Cartagena (SPRC) and Contecar terminals provide 5.0 million TEU annual capacity, though 2024's 3.7M TEU performance demonstrates operational efficiency exceeding original design parameters.

For prediction market participants, Cartagena represents a convergence of multiple tradeable dynamics: Panama Canal congestion overflow, Colombian agricultural export cycles (coffee, flowers, fresh fruit), U.S.-Colombia bilateral trade flows under FTA terms, Caribbean regional economic health, cruise tourism recovery, and liner alliance network reshuffling. IMF PortWatch tracks Cartagena alongside 1,802 global ports using satellite AIS data from 90,000 ships, providing weekly updates on vessel traffic, throughput estimates, and regional flow patterns.

Strategic Position in Caribbean Trade

Panama Canal Proximity Cartagena's location south of the Panama Canal within the 150-nautical-mile transshipment corridor creates competitive advantages for Caribbean redistribution. When Panama Canal drought restrictions reduced daily transits from 36 to 22 vessels during 2023-2024, overflow cargo increased demand for Caribbean transshipment hubs. Cartagena benefits from this dynamic while offering lower costs than Panama's Colón-Manzanillo terminals and avoiding canal toll expenses for Caribbean-destined cargo.

Research from the Journal of Shipping and Trade confirms that Cartagena, combined with the broader transshipment corridor, accounts for 87%+ of observed Caribbean transshipment activity. The port functions as the "bottom of the funnel" where converging shipping lanes from the Panama Canal redistribute to Caribbean islands and South American coastal markets.

Dual Gateway Advantage Unlike pure transshipment hubs such as Freeport (Bahamas) or Caucedo (Dominican Republic) with 90%+ transshipment ratios, Cartagena combines 50%+ transshipment with substantial Colombian hinterland traffic. Port Economics research demonstrates that hubs combining hinterland traffic with transshipment exhibit greater stability than pure transshipment operations, as they're less vulnerable to liner service route changes or alliance network reshuffling.

This dual capability means Cartagena captures both: (1) feeder redistribution flows to Caribbean and Central American markets, and (2) Colombian import/export gateway traffic serving Bogotá, Medellín, and Caribbean coastal regions via highway networks. The combination provides revenue diversification and operational resilience unavailable to competitors relying solely on transshipment economics.

Connectivity Leadership Grupo Puerto de Cartagena maintains the highest connectivity index in the Caribbean region, with network reach to 840+ ports across 140 countries. This connectivity metric reflects liner service frequency, route diversity, and vessel size capacity—all critical factors for transshipment hub competitiveness. When liner alliances restructure routes (as during Two-M Alliance dissolution or Ocean Alliance reshuffling), connectivity breadth helps Cartagena retain market share versus rivals.

Colombian Export Flows

Coffee: 30.2% of National Throughput Port of Cartagena handles 30.2% of Colombia's coffee exports, second only to Buenaventura's 63.3% Pacific coast share. Colombia exported a record 12.3 million 60kg bags in 2024 (+16% year-over-year), with Cartagena processing approximately 3.7 million bags destined for United States, European, Japanese, and South Korean markets.

Colombian Coffee Federation data shows coffee exports flow year-round with peak volumes October-December following Arabica harvest season. During peak months, Cartagena's storage capacity reaches 95% utilization, creating logistics bottlenecks that affect vessel dwell times and container availability. StoneX Coffee Market Intelligence reported December 2024 logistics challenges as storage at Cartagena and Santa Marta approached maximum capacity, delaying export shipments by 5-7 days.

For traders, Colombian coffee production and export timing provide leading indicators for Cartagena throughput patterns. Harvest yield forecasts from Federación Nacional de Cafeteros combined with container availability metrics signal whether peak-season congestion will materialize—creating tradeable binary setups around dwell time thresholds or monthly TEU volumes.

Flowers & Fresh Produce Colombia ranks as the world's 2nd largest flower exporter (after Netherlands), with $1.75 billion in annual flower exports. While air cargo dominates for premium cut flowers shipped to U.S. markets for Valentine's Day and Mother's Day, Cartagena handles sea freight for bulk stem shipments and provides logistics infrastructure for fresh fruit exports including avocados, citrus, and tropical fruits.

Flower export seasonality creates predictable Q1-Q2 volume surges at Cartagena's cold storage facilities. The port's proximity to Bogotá flower production zones (though primarily served by air) and coastal highway connectivity to Caribbean agricultural regions makes it a secondary export route when air cargo capacity constraints emerge during peak Valentine's season.

Fresh fruit exports peak Q2-Q3 as Colombian avocados, limes, and tropical fruits reach U.S. and European markets. This secondary agricultural export flow complements coffee and flower seasonality, creating relatively stable year-round agricultural throughput with distinct seasonal peaks traders can position around.

Manufactured Goods & Bilateral Trade Port of Cartagena handles 60%+ of Colombia-U.S. bilateral trade, processing manufactured goods, plastics, consumer products, and automotive parts. The U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement facilitates this flow, with tariff-free treatment for qualifying goods creating competitive export pathways.

Net revenue growth of +28.29% year-over-year in 2024 reflects both volume increases (+7.6% container TEUs) and value-added cargo mix improvements. Grupo Puerto de Cartagena reports growing exports of agro-industrial products beyond traditional coffee, including processed foods, manufactured plastics, and industrial components serving U.S. and European supply chains.

When U.S. import demand contracts—whether from economic cycles, inventory destocking, or tariff policy changes—Cartagena's manufactured goods exports face headwinds affecting 60% of port throughput. Conversely, weak Colombian peso versus USD boosts export competitiveness, supporting coffee and manufactured goods shipment volumes even when global demand softens.

Transshipment Hub Operations

Caribbean Feeder Networks Cartagena's transshipment operations redistribute containers to Jamaica (Kingston), Dominican Republic (Haina, Caucedo), Haiti (Port-au-Prince), Trinidad (Port of Spain), and smaller Caribbean island ports via feeder vessel networks. These services connect island economies to mainline transatlantic and transpacific routes, enabling Caribbean importers to access Asian manufactured goods and European consumer products without direct mainline service.

Feeder networks operate on weekly or bi-weekly schedules, with typical 2-4 day transit times from Cartagena to regional destinations. When Caribbean retail import demand surges—driven by tourism season, holiday shopping, or reconstruction efforts after hurricane events—feeder vessel utilization increases, creating observable throughput patterns at Cartagena's transshipment terminals.

Liner Service Integration Major liner alliances including 2M (Maersk, MSC), Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL), and THE Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Yang Ming) integrate Cartagena into Caribbean loop services connecting North American East Coast, transatlantic Europe routes, and transpacific Asia services via Panama Canal transit.

When alliances restructure networks—as during Two-M Alliance dissolution announced for 2025 or Ocean Alliance capacity rebalancing—Caribbean hub port call patterns shift. Cartagena's highest connectivity index provides resilience, but individual liner service additions or withdrawals create tradeable market share shifts versus Colón-Manzanillo (Panama) or Kingston (Jamaica).

Competitive Dynamics Cartagena competes directly with:

Cartagena's competitive positioning combines moderate costs, strategic Panama Canal proximity without canal toll exposure for Caribbean cargo, dual transshipment/gateway economics, and modern infrastructure with Post-Panamax capability. When Panama Canal congestion or pricing increases, Cartagena captures market share. When liner alliances optimize for lowest-cost hubs, Cartagena faces pressure from Caucedo or Kingston.

Cruise Operations & Tourism Revenue

Cruise Market Dominance Port of Cartagena's cruise terminal captured 500,786 passengers during the 2022-2023 season, representing 97% of all sea-arrival tourists in Colombia. The 2023-2024 season expanded to 190+ cruise ship calls with 470,000+ total tourists (passengers plus crew), generating estimated USD 50+ million in direct economic impact.

The cruise terminal infrastructure supports up to 5 vessels simultaneously with daily capacity for 10,000+ passengers, serving 34 cruise lines including Carnival, Royal Caribbean, MSC, Norwegian, Princess, Holland America, Celebrity, Disney, and luxury operators like Oceania, Regent Seven Seas, and Viking Ocean.

Seasonal Patterns Caribbean cruise season peaks November-April, aligning with dry season weather and North American winter travel demand. Cartagena's UNESCO World Heritage historic walled city (Cartagena de Indias) creates destination appeal, positioning the port as a primary call rather than secondary stop in Caribbean itineraries.

Colombia Tourism Ministry data shows cruise tourism rebounded strongly post-COVID, with 2024 season reaching 95%+ of 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Royal Caribbean's expansion into homeport operations (passengers embarking/disembarking in Cartagena rather than just port calls) generated USD 22.3+ million additional economic impact, demonstrating growing cruise sector contribution beyond traditional port call economics.

Economic Multiplier While cruise operations represent small cargo volumes compared to 3.7M TEU container throughput, the USD 50M+ annual economic impact and 97% national market share create significant regional economic multiplier effects. Tourism spending flows through Cartagena's historic sites, restaurants, transportation, and retail sectors—supporting employment and tax revenues that strengthen Colombia's Caribbean coast economic base.

For traders monitoring Colombian economic indicators, cruise passenger volumes provide leading signals for regional consumer spending, foreign exchange inflows, and tourism sector health. These dynamics feed into Colombian peso exchange rate forecasts, which in turn affect agricultural export competitiveness through Cartagena's container terminals.

Signals Traders Watch

Panama Canal Transit Capacity When Panama Canal drought reduces daily transits from 36 to 22 vessels (as during 2023-2024 water shortages), Caribbean transshipment demand increases as cargo diverts to hub-and-feeder networks rather than direct canal transit. Cartagena benefits from this dynamic, with transshipment volumes rising 8-12% during peak canal congestion periods.

Traders monitor Panama Canal Authority daily transit schedules and water level updates from Gatun Lake. When lake levels drop below 26 meters, transit restrictions tighten, creating 10-14 day forward-looking signals for Caribbean hub volume increases. Position long Cartagena transshipment volumes when canal drought forecasts materialize, with 3-6 week lag for cargo routing shifts to become visible in port statistics.

Colombian Coffee Harvest & Export Data Colombian Coffee Federation publishes monthly export volumes and harvest forecasts. When harvest yields increase—as in 2024's record 12.3 million bag production (+16% YoY)—Cartagena's 30.2% export share translates to predictable October-December volume surges. Conversely, drought in Colombia's coffee-growing regions or unexpected pest damage reduces throughput 15-25% in affected months.

Coffee storage capacity reaching 95% utilization triggers secondary signals: container availability constraints, vessel dwell time increases, and potential cargo diversion to Santa Marta or Buenaventura. Trade these dynamics via binary markets on "Will Cartagena monthly TEU volume exceed X threshold during coffee peak season?" or scalar markets on quarterly average dwell times.

Liner Alliance Network Changes When major alliances announce route restructuring—such as Two-M Alliance dissolution, Ocean Alliance capacity adjustments, or THE Alliance Caribbean loop modifications—hub port call patterns shift within 3-6 months. Cartagena's 840+ port connectivity provides buffer, but individual service withdrawals impact transshipment volumes measurably.

Monitor liner alliance announcements via Alphaliner, Drewry, and Lloyd's List intelligence. When Maersk or MSC announce Caribbean route changes, assess whether Cartagena gains or loses weekly service frequency. Position accordingly in port throughput markets or competitive spread trades (Cartagena vs. Kingston market share).

U.S. Import Demand & Inventory Cycles With 60%+ bilateral trade dependency on Colombia-U.S. flows, Cartagena throughput correlates strongly with U.S. import demand for manufactured goods, consumer products, and agricultural commodities. When U.S. retail inventory-to-sales ratios drop below 1.3, replenishment cycles drive Colombian export surges visible in Cartagena booking data 6-8 weeks ahead of vessel arrivals.

U.S. Census Bureau trade statistics and retailer earnings reports provide quarterly signals. Position long Cartagena Q3-Q4 throughput when U.S. inventory levels signal restocking demand. Conversely, short Q1 volumes when post-holiday destocking patterns emerge in U.S. retail data.

Colombian Peso Exchange Rate Weak Colombian peso versus USD boosts export competitiveness for coffee, flowers, and manufactured goods by reducing dollar-equivalent production costs. When peso depreciates 10%+, Colombian exports become 8-12% more price-competitive in U.S. and European markets, driving volume increases through Cartagena terminals.

Banco de la República (Colombia's central bank) publishes daily peso/USD rates. Track correlations between peso depreciation and 3-month forward Cartagena export volumes (coffee, flowers, manufactured goods). Use currency signals to inform directional positions on Colombian export throughput.

Container Availability & Port Congestion When Cartagena storage capacity exceeds 90% utilization—as during 2024 coffee peak season at 95%—container availability constraints emerge. Importers face delays accessing empty containers for exports, while vessel dwell times extend as terminals struggle to clear yard space.

Grupo Puerto de Cartagena publishes quarterly operational metrics. When storage utilization trends above 85%, position for secondary logistics bottleneck effects: increased dwell times (5+ days vs. 3-day baseline), chassis shortages, and potential cargo diversion to Barranquilla or Santa Marta. Binary markets on "Will average dwell time exceed 5 days in Q4?" become favorable when storage capacity signals flash.

How to Trade It on Prediction Markets

Ballast Markets enables traders to express views on Port of Cartagena dynamics through multiple market structures aligned with Caribbean transshipment, Colombian export flows, and regional trade patterns:

Binary Markets

Binary markets offer YES/NO outcomes for specific thresholds applicable to Cartagena operations:

"Will Port of Cartagena monthly TEU volume exceed 320,000 in December 2024?" Resolution: Official Grupo Puerto de Cartagena statistics published 5-10 business days after month-end. December represents peak coffee export season with typical 12-15% above-baseline volumes. Positioning: Use Colombian Coffee Federation harvest forecasts and October-November coffee export actuals to project December volumes. Position YES when harvest yields exceed expectations and storage capacity remains below 90% (minimal diversion risk).

"Will Panama Canal daily transits fall below 24 vessels for 30+ consecutive days in Q1 2025?" Resolution: Panama Canal Authority daily transit data. Drought impacts create Caribbean transshipment demand increases benefiting Cartagena. Positioning: Monitor Gatun Lake water levels and rainfall forecasts for Panama watershed. When levels drop below 26 meters with dry season ahead, position YES on canal restrictions and long Cartagena transshipment volumes as paired trade.

"Will Colombia-U.S. bilateral trade value exceed $45B in 2025?" Resolution: U.S. Census Bureau trade data and Colombian DIAN customs statistics. Cartagena handles 60%+ of this flow. Positioning: Track U.S. import demand indicators, Colombian peso exchange rates, and coffee/flower export forecasts. Weak peso plus strong U.S. retail demand supports YES position. Tariff policy changes (Section 301 measures) create downside risk.

"Will Cartagena cruise passengers exceed 550,000 in 2024-2025 season?" Resolution: Colombia Tourism Ministry cruise terminal statistics. Represents 10%+ growth over prior season's 500,786 passengers. Positioning: Monitor cruise line schedule announcements from Royal Caribbean, Carnival, MSC for Caribbean deployments. Homeport operations expansion and post-COVID recovery trends support YES. Hurricane season impacts or geopolitical instability create downside.

Positioning tips: Binary markets work best for event-driven catalysts with clear resolution criteria and predictable seasonal patterns. Cartagena benefits from observable coffee export cycles, Panama Canal drought impacts, and cruise seasonality—all providing quantifiable edges. Use limit orders to capture mispricings when market participants underweight Colombian-specific factors versus broader Caribbean trends.

Scalar Markets

Scalar markets allow trading on specific ranges or indices tailored to Cartagena's operational metrics:

"Port of Cartagena TEU Index — Q4 2024" Range: 0–150 (baseline = 100, representing 12-month rolling average) Resolution: Indexed to quarterly TEU volume vs. trailing average Notes: Q4 typically runs 8-12% above baseline due to coffee peak season and U.S. holiday import timing. Trade spreads between Q4 and Q1 to capture seasonal rotation. Size positions based on coffee harvest yield forecasts and Panama Canal congestion expectations.

"Colombian Coffee Export Volume via Cartagena — December 2024" Range: 250,000–450,000 60kg bags Resolution: Colombian Coffee Federation port-specific export data Notes: December represents peak month post-harvest. Cartagena's 30.2% national share applied to total December exports provides baseline. Weather impacts on harvest, storage capacity constraints, and peso exchange rates drive distribution. Position based on federation harvest reports and October-November actuals.

"Caribbean Transshipment Hub Index — Q1 2025" Components: Cartagena (35%), Colón-Manzanillo (30%), Kingston (20%), Caucedo (15%) Resolution: Weighted average of quarterly TEU volumes across components Notes: Captures regional transshipment health rather than single-port exposure. Use for macro views on Caribbean trade flows without Cartagena-specific operational risk. Position based on Panama Canal congestion expectations, U.S. import demand forecasts, and liner alliance network changes.

"Cartagena Monthly Record Achievement — 2025" Range: Binary ladder structure: 305K, 310K, 315K, 320K, 325K+ TEUs Resolution: Highest single-month TEU volume achieved in 2025 vs. March 2024 record of 311,439 TEUs Notes: Scalar ladder allows granular positioning on whether Cartagena breaks monthly record and by how much. Coffee super-cycle, Panama Canal crisis, or liner service additions could drive 320K+ months. Position based on capacity utilization trends and infrastructure expansion timelines.

Positioning tips: Scalar markets provide exposure to magnitude and distribution rather than binary thresholds. For Cartagena, coffee export variability (harvest yields vary ±20% year-to-year) creates fat-tail distributions in quarterly volumes. Size positions acknowledging agricultural volatility—recommend smaller position sizes than liquid U.S. port markets, with 15-20% position size reductions versus LA Port or Long Beach equivalents given lower market depth.

Index Basket Strategies

Combine Port of Cartagena with related markets to create diversified positions capturing Caribbean and Colombian trade dynamics:

Caribbean Transshipment Corridor Index Components: Cartagena (30%), Colón-Manzanillo (25%), Panama Canal transits (20%), Kingston (15%), U.S.-Caribbean trade value (10%) Use case: Comprehensive exposure to Caribbean logistics health, isolating regional flows from global container market volatility Construction: Weight Cartagena 30% to reflect dual gateway/transshipment role. Panama Canal component captures chokepoint impacts. U.S.-Caribbean trade value proxies demand drivers. Rebalance quarterly based on market share shifts.

Colombian Agricultural Export Basket Combine Cartagena coffee throughput (40%), Colombian peso/USD (25%), U.S. coffee import prices (20%), flower export volumes (15%) Use case: Comprehensive Colombian agricultural export exposure, capturing production, competitiveness, and demand factors Rationale: Coffee throughput at Cartagena correlates 0.72 with total Colombian coffee exports. Weak peso boosts competitiveness (negative correlation to volumes). U.S. import prices drive demand. Flower exports provide diversification.

Panama Canal Congestion Spread Long Cartagena transshipment volumes / Short Panama Canal daily transits Rationale: When canal drought restricts transits, transshipment demand increases. Spread isolates congestion impact from broader trade volume trends. Execution: Size long Cartagena position 1.5x short canal position to account for Cartagena's 50% transshipment vs. 50% gateway split. Monitor Gatun Lake water levels and rainfall forecasts for entry timing.

U.S.-Colombia Bilateral Trade Flow Combine Cartagena gateway volumes (40%), U.S.-Colombia FTA tariff corridor ETR (30%), Colombian manufacturing exports (20%), peso exchange rate (10%) Use case: Comprehensive bilateral trade exposure, isolating policy risk, currency impacts, and logistics flows Notes: Cartagena handles 60%+ of bilateral flow. FTA tariff corridor captures policy risk. Manufacturing exports proxy industrial production. Peso rate affects competitiveness.

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FAQ

How does Cartagena's dual transshipment/gateway role create trading opportunities? Cartagena combines 50%+ transshipment (regional redistribution) with 50% Colombian gateway traffic (import/export). This creates two independent signal sources: (1) Caribbean regional demand and liner service routing (transshipment), and (2) Colombian economic health and agricultural exports (gateway). Traders can isolate which factor drives volumes by comparing Cartagena trends against pure transshipment hubs (Kingston, Caucedo) and Colombian-only gateways (Buenaventura Pacific coast). Divergences create spread trade opportunities.

What's the typical bid-ask spread on Cartagena markets? Cartagena markets show 2-4% spreads with $20k-60k depth per side during normal conditions, wider than major U.S. ports but tighter than smaller Caribbean hubs. Spreads widen to 6-10% during high volatility events (Panama Canal crises, Colombian political developments, coffee harvest disruptions). Best liquidity appears 45-75 days before resolution as Colombian coffee export data and Panama Canal drought forecasts clarify market fundamentals.

How do I track Cartagena port congestion in real-time? IMF PortWatch provides weekly updates on vessel traffic, estimated throughput, and regional flow patterns. Grupo Puerto de Cartagena publishes quarterly operational metrics including storage utilization, vessel dwell times, and TEU volumes. For coffee-specific signals, Colombian Coffee Federation releases monthly export data by port. Combine these sources for 7-14 day leading indicators versus official statistics.

Can I create custom markets on Colombian coffee flows through Cartagena? Yes—Ballast allows custom markets on any resolvable metric. Examples: "Cartagena coffee export volume over 400,000 bags in December 2025" or "Cartagena storage capacity utilization over 90% in Q4 2025." Define resolution source (Colombian Coffee Federation port-level data, Grupo Puerto de Cartagena quarterly reports) and set parameters. Coffee flows provide high-conviction edges given harvest seasonality predictability.

How do tariff changes in U.S.-Colombia FTA affect Cartagena? U.S.-Colombia FTA eliminates tariffs on most goods, but Section 301 measures, safeguard provisions, or agricultural quotas can override FTA treatment. If U.S. imposes new tariffs on Colombian manufactured goods or flowers, Cartagena export volumes decline 8-15% as U.S.-destined cargo faces demand destruction. Monitor USTR announcements and Colombian government trade policy responses. Trade these dynamics via calendar spreads: short post-tariff-implementation months versus long pre-announcement periods capturing front-loading.

What's the relationship between Panama Canal drought and Cartagena volumes? When Gatun Lake water levels drop below 26 meters, Panama Canal Authority restricts daily transits (36 to 22-24 vessels during 2023-2024 drought). Shippers facing canal delays or higher tolls shift to hub-and-feeder networks, increasing Caribbean transshipment demand. Cartagena benefits with 8-12% volume increases during sustained canal restrictions (3+ months). Trade this via paired positions: long Cartagena transshipment volumes + short Panama Canal daily transits, sizing to account for 50% transshipment incidence at Cartagena.

How do I hedge physical cargo exposure through Cartagena? If you're an importer with Colombian coffee or flower shipments transiting Cartagena in Q4, you face storage congestion risk (95% utilization during peak season) extending dwell times and delaying deliveries 5-10 days. Hedge by buying "YES" on "Q4 average dwell time over 5 days" or "monthly TEU volume over 325,000" (capacity constraints). If congestion materializes, market payout offsets physical logistics delay costs. Size hedge based on cargo value and delay sensitivity (coffee price volatility, flower perishability urgency).

Sources

Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Ballast Markets is not affiliated with PolyMarket or Kalshi. Data references include IMF PortWatch (accessed October 2024), Grupo Puerto de Cartagena official statistics (January 2025), and Colombian Coffee Federation export data. Trading involves risk. Predictions may differ from actual outcomes.