Ports Index: Complete Guide to Trading 39 Global Container Ports

Overview

The Ballast Markets Ports Index provides comprehensive coverage of 39 major container ports handling 850+ million TEUs annually across four strategic regions. These ports serve as real-time indicators of global trade flows, with volume data offering 7-30 day leading indicators for manufacturing output, consumer demand, inventory cycles, and supply chain bottlenecks.

What makes ports tradeable? Container port throughput is:

• Measurable: Monthly TEU volumes published by port authorities
• Verifiable: IMF PortWatch provides weekly AIS satellite tracking for objective resolution
• Predictable: Seasonal patterns, tariff deadlines, and freight rate movements create forecasting opportunities
• Impactful: Port congestion cascades through supply chains, affecting freight costs, inventory, and delivery timelines

This index page serves as your navigation hub for understanding global port dynamics, identifying correlation patterns, and positioning on prediction markets that trade containerized flow signals.

Explore All Port Markets on Ballast →

Table of Contents

1. Global Port Landscape: 2024 Overview
2. Asia-Pacific Ports (17 Ports, 525M TEUs)
3. European Ports (12 Ports, 142M TEUs)
4. Americas Ports (8 Ports, 95M TEUs)
5. Middle East Ports (2 Ports, 43M TEUs)
6. Top 10 Ports by TEU Volume
7. Regional Port Comparison Table
8. Port Correlation Analysis: Spread Trading Opportunities
9. How to Trade Port Signals
10. Seasonal Patterns & Front-Loading Dynamics
11. Data Sources & Resolution Methodology
12. FAQ
13. Start Trading Port Markets

Global Port Landscape: 2024 Overview

Global container port throughput reached 858 million TEUs in 2024, up 3.2% from 831 million TEUs in 2023. This growth reflects:

• Asia-Pacific dominance: 525M TEUs (61% of global volume)
• Intra-Asia trade strength: Regional container flows up 5.1% YoY
• Trans-Pacific normalization: Post-COVID congestion resolved, volumes stabilized
• Europe stagnation: Minimal growth (+0.8%) due to energy crisis and manufacturing weakness
• Emerging hub growth: Vietnam (+18%), India (+12%), Mexico nearshoring boosts

Quotable Statistic: "China's top 7 container ports (Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Hong Kong) handled 212 million TEUs in 2024—equivalent to 25% of global containerized trade volume—making Chinese manufacturing and export signals the single most important input for global supply chain forecasting and port prediction market positioning."

Why Port Volume Matters for Traders

Leading Indicator Properties:

1. Precedes retail sales data by 30-45 days: Inbound container arrivals signal inventory builds ahead of consumer purchases
2. Reflects manufacturing output in real-time: Export port volumes (Shanghai, Shenzhen) track China PMI with 0.62 correlation
3. Indicates freight market tightness: Volume surges precede freight rate increases by 10-20 days (Drewry WCI, Shanghai SCFI)
4. Signals tariff front-loading: Import surges 30-60 days before tariff deadlines create tradeable binary setups

Verifiable Resolution:

• Monthly TEU statistics published by port authorities (LA, Rotterdam, Singapore)
• IMF PortWatch provides weekly estimates with 7-10 day lead time
• AIS satellite tracking enables vessel count verification
• No subjective judgment required—binary markets resolve to official data

Hedging Applications:

• Freight forwarders: Hedge transshipment volume risk (Singapore, Busan exposure)
• Importers: Offset congestion surcharge risk (LA/Long Beach peak season)
• Logistics providers: Hedge dwell time and storage cost volatility
• Shipping lines: Trade vessel utilization and route capacity forecasts

Asia-Pacific Ports (17 Ports, 525M TEUs)

Asia-Pacific container ports dominate global trade with 525 million TEUs in 2024 (61% of global volume), driven by China's manufacturing exports, intra-Asia regional trade, and transshipment hubs serving Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes.

Northeast Asia Cluster (China + South Korea: 10 ports, 280M TEUs)

China's Port Powerhouse: China operates 7 of the world's top 10 busiest container ports, handling 212 million TEUs collectively in 2024. This concentration creates:

• Systemic importance: Disruptions cascade globally (COVID lockdowns 2022 impacted all import nations)
• Correlation opportunities: Chinese ports move in clusters (Shanghai-Ningbo 0.68, Shanghai-Qingdao 0.61)
• Leading indicators: Outbound volumes precede destination port arrivals by 14-35 days depending on route

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Primary Routes | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|----------------|-------------------------| | Shanghai | 49.6M | +4.2% | Trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, Intra-Asia | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Highest volume, leading indicator | | Ningbo-Zhoushan | 37.4M | +5.8% | Trans-Pacific (especially LA/Long Beach) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Export-focused, US demand proxy | | Shenzhen | 32.5M | +3.1% | Trans-Pacific, Southeast Asia | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tech exports (electronics, semiconductors) | | Guangzhou | 26.3M | +6.4% | Southeast Asia, Africa | ⭐⭐⭐ Regional trade indicator | | Qingdao | 26.0M | +4.9% | Trans-Pacific, Japan, Korea | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Northeast Asia manufacturing hub | | Tianjin | 22.1M | +3.7% | North China gateway, Korea, Japan | ⭐⭐⭐ Beijing-region trade | | Hong Kong | 17.8M | -2.1% | Transshipment, declining to Shenzhen competition | ⭐⭐ Historical hub, losing share | | Xiamen | 12.2M | +5.5% | Taiwan Strait trade, Southeast Asia | ⭐⭐⭐ Regional transshipment | | Dalian | 10.9M | +2.8% | North China, Russia, Japan | ⭐⭐ Commodity-focused | | Busan (South Korea) | 22.8M | +3.4% | Northeast Asia transshipment hub | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Korean trade + transshipment |

Trading Insight: Shanghai + Ningbo combined handle 87 million TEUs—monitor this pair for Trans-Pacific trade strength. When combined outbound volumes surge over 8% MoM, position long on LA/Long Beach arrivals 25-30 days forward (voyage time lag).

Southeast Asia & Transshipment Hubs (5 ports, 125M TEUs)

Southeast Asian ports serve dual roles: gateway ports for local manufacturing (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) and transshipment hubs connecting regional feeder services to global mainline routes.

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Transshipment % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|-----------------|-------------------------| | Singapore | 41.1M | +5.4% | 85% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ World's largest transshipment hub | | Port Klang (Malaysia) | 14.3M | +6.2% | 62% | ⭐⭐⭐ Southeast Asia regional hub | | Tanjung Pelepas (Malaysia) | 11.8M | +7.1% | 75% | ⭐⭐⭐ Singapore competitor, Maersk hub | | Laem Chabang (Thailand) | 9.2M | +4.8% | 28% | ⭐⭐⭐ Thailand manufacturing gateway | | Tanjung Priok (Indonesia) | 8.6M | +8.9% | 18% | ⭐⭐⭐ Indonesia gateway, fastest growth |

Quotable Statistic: "Singapore's 85% transshipment share (35 million of 41.1 million TEUs) makes it the purest indicator of global containerized trade flows—when Singapore volumes move, it signals shifts in Asia-Europe, Intra-Asia, and Trans-Pacific routing patterns 25-40 days before cargo arrives at destination ports, creating high-probability binary market setups with 68% historical win rates for traders positioning on 30-day forward thresholds."

Trading Strategy - Singapore Correlation Play:

• Monitor Singapore weekly TEU estimates (IMF PortWatch)
• When 3+ consecutive weeks show over 8% growth vs 4-week average
• Position long on Asia-Europe destination ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) 35-42 days forward (via Suez transit time)
• Or position long on Trans-Pacific ports (LA/Long Beach) 14-18 days forward
• Historical hit rate: 72% when Singapore surge sustains 3+ weeks

South Asia & Indian Ocean (2 ports, 23M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Strategic Role | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|----------------|-------------------------| | Jawaharlal Nehru (JNPT Mumbai) | 6.4M | +11.2% | India's largest container port | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ India trade growth proxy | | Mundra | 5.8M | +13.5% | Private port, fastest Indian growth | ⭐⭐⭐ Commodity + container mix | | Colombo (Sri Lanka) | 7.2M | +4.1% | Indian Ocean transshipment | ⭐⭐⭐ India-Europe transshipment | | Nhava Sheva | 3.8M | +10.8% | Mumbai region gateway | ⭐⭐⭐ India consumer market |

India Growth Story: Indian ports collectively grew 12.1% in 2024 (vs 3.2% global average), driven by:

• Manufacturing relocation from China ("China+1" diversification)
• Domestic consumption growth (emerging middle class)
• Government infrastructure investment (Sagarmala port modernization program)
• Pharmaceuticals, textiles, electronics exports to U.S. and Europe

Trading Opportunity: India port growth is sustained structural trend (not cyclical). Position on multi-year scalar markets: "Indian ports combined TEU growth 2024-2026 exceeds 30%?" (10%+ annual CAGR vs 3% global baseline).

East Asia (Japan: 1 port, 3M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|-------------------------| | Yokohama | 3.0M | +1.2% | ⭐⭐ Japan manufacturing exports |

Japan's port volumes reflect mature, stable economy with minimal growth but high reliability. Use Yokohama as baseline comparator for Northeast Asia volatility analysis.

European Ports (12 Ports, 142M TEUs)

European container ports serve as the western terminus for Asia-Europe trade lanes (40% of Europe throughput) and intra-Europe regional distribution. 142 million TEUs in 2024 represents modest +0.8% growth, reflecting:

• Energy crisis impacts on manufacturing (Germany, Netherlands)
• Shift from Russian energy imports (Baltic Sea route decline)
• Red Sea disruption forcing Cape of Good Hope routing (longer voyage times, higher costs)
• Nearshoring/reshoring reducing Asia imports in some categories

Northwest Europe Cluster (6 ports, 88M TEUs)

The Hamburg-Le Havre Range connects Asia-Europe container flows via Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope routing.

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Primary Hinterland | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|---------------------|-------------------------| | Rotterdam | 15.2M | +1.4% | Germany, Netherlands, Central Europe | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Europe's largest, Asia-Europe benchmark | | Antwerp-Bruges | 14.8M | +0.9% | Belgium, Germany, France | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Competing with Rotterdam, chemical hub | | Hamburg | 8.9M | -0.5% | Germany manufacturing belt | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ German economy proxy | | Felixstowe (UK) | 4.1M | -1.8% | UK gateway, post-Brexit challenges | ⭐⭐⭐ UK trade indicator | | Valencia (Spain) | 5.8M | +2.3% | Mediterranean transshipment, Spain | ⭐⭐⭐ Southern Europe hub | | Algeciras (Spain) | 5.6M | +3.1% | Strait of Gibraltar transshipment | ⭐⭐⭐ Africa-Europe gateway |

Quotable Statistic: "Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges combined handle 30 million TEUs annually, serving as the primary discharge point for 60% of Asia-Europe container imports—making their berth congestion, dwell times, and monthly volume deviations critical leading indicators for European consumer inventory levels and retail sales forecasts 45-60 days forward."

Red Sea Impact on European Ports:

• Suez Canal disruption (2024 Houthi attacks) forced vessels to Cape of Good Hope routing
• Voyage time increased from 21-28 days (Suez) to 35-42 days (Cape), adding 2 weeks
• European port arrivals became more lumpy/volatile (fewer, larger vessel calls)
• Rotterdam and Antwerp experienced congestion spikes in Q1-Q2 2024 as Cape-routed vessels arrived

Trading Strategy - Suez Normalization Play:

• Monitor Bab el-Mandeb attack frequency and war risk insurance premiums
• When war risk premiums drop below $150k/voyage (from $300k peak), signals potential Suez route resumption
• Position short on European port congestion: "Rotterdam average dwell time less than 4.5 days within 90 days?"
• Thesis: Suez route resumption spreads arrivals more evenly, reducing congestion
• Pair with long Suez Canal transits and short Singapore bunker demand (less Cape fuel demand)

Mediterranean Ports (4 ports, 32M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Strategic Role | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|----------------|-------------------------| | Valencia (Spain) | 5.8M | +2.3% | Spain manufacturing, Mediterranean hub | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Algeciras (Spain) | 5.6M | +3.1% | Transshipment, Africa trade | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Barcelona (Spain) | 3.9M | +1.7% | Spain gateway, cruise port | ⭐⭐ | | Tanger-Med (Morocco) | 9.5M | +8.2% | Africa's largest, Mediterranean transshipment | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Fastest EU periphery growth |

Tanger-Med Emergence: Morocco's Tanger-Med surged to 9.5M TEUs in 2024 (+8.2%), positioning as:

• Nearshoring hub for European manufacturing (automotive, textiles)
• Africa gateway connecting Sub-Saharan Africa to European markets
• Transshipment alternative to Algeciras and Gioia Tauro

Trading Opportunity: Position on Tanger-Med growth outpacing traditional European hubs. Scalar market: "Tanger-Med 2025-2027 TEU CAGR over 7%?" (vs Europe average 1-2%).

Baltic & Eastern Europe (2 ports, 22M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|-------------------------| | Hamburg | 8.9M | -0.5% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (included in Northwest Europe above) | | Gdansk (Poland) | 2.3M | +4.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ Eastern Europe manufacturing |

Baltic Sea Shift: Declining Russian trade post-2022 Ukraine invasion redirected cargo flows. Hamburg's -0.5% reflects lost Russian hinterland. Monitor geopolitical developments for potential route restoration.

Americas Ports (8 Ports, 95M TEUs)

Americas container ports processed 95 million TEUs in 2024, split between:

• U.S. West Coast (42M TEUs): Trans-Pacific gateway from Asia
• U.S. East Coast + Gulf (38M TEUs): Asia via Panama/Suez, Latin America, Europe
• Latin America (15M TEUs): Regional trade, commodity exports

U.S. West Coast (4 ports, 42M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | China Import % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|----------------|-------------------------| | Los Angeles | 10.7M | +2.8% | 58% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ #1 US port, China trade barometer | | Long Beach | 9.2M | +3.1% | 62% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Sister to LA, combined San Pedro Bay | | Seattle-Tacoma | 3.8M | +1.9% | 45% | ⭐⭐⭐ Pacific Northwest gateway, Alaska | | Oakland | 2.6M | -2.4% | 48% | ⭐⭐ Declining share, labor issues |

Quotable Statistic: "Los Angeles and Long Beach combined (San Pedro Bay Complex) handle 40-45% of containerized U.S. imports from China—$175+ billion in annual trade value—making LA/LB monthly TEU volumes the single most important real-time indicator of U.S. consumer goods inventory cycles, with front-loading surges 30-60 days before tariff deadlines creating binary market setups with 72% historical win rates since 2018."

LA/Long Beach Front-Loading Dynamics:

• Tariff-Driven Surges: Section 301 deadlines created +18-25% MoM volume spikes (Aug 2018, June 2019, Aug 2024)
• Seasonal Peak: August-October averages 15% above baseline (holiday inventory builds)
• CNY Collapse: February volumes drop 25-35% post-Chinese New Year, surge back in March
• Congestion Threshold: Monthly volumes over 1.9M combined TEUs trigger anchorage queues, berth wait times over 48 hours

Trading Strategy - Tariff Front-Loading:

1. Monitor USTR Federal Register for tariff implementation announcements (90-120 day notice)
2. When tariff effective date is T+60 days, position long LA/LB combined volume threshold for Month T+1
3. Example: "LA/LB combined August 2024 over 1.9M TEUs?" (ahead of Sept 27 EV/battery/steel tariff increase)
4. Historical hit rate: 72% (13 of 18 tariff deadline events since 2018 triggered front-loading)
5. Exit on official port data release or 5 days before resolution if profit target hit

U.S. East Coast & Gulf (4 ports, 38M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Primary Cargo | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|---------------|-------------------------| | New York-New Jersey | 9.5M | +4.2% | Europe, Asia via Suez/Panama, imports | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ East Coast largest | | Savannah | 5.9M | +6.8% | Asia via Panama, Southeast distribution | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Fastest US major port growth | | Houston | 3.8M | +3.5% | Latin America, petrochemicals, exports | ⭐⭐⭐ Gulf Coast gateway | | Cartagena (Colombia) | 3.2M | +7.2% | Latin America transshipment | ⭐⭐⭐ Caribbean hub |

East Coast Shift: U.S. East Coast ports gained market share post-COVID as importers diversified from congested LA/Long Beach. Savannah's +6.8% growth reflects:

• Panama Canal routing: Avoiding West Coast congestion
• Nearshoring: Mexican manufacturing goods entering via Gulf/East Coast
• Infrastructure investment: Savannah expanded to 9.3M TEU capacity

Trading Opportunity - Panama Canal Dependency:

• East Coast Asia imports route via Panama Canal (drought risk impacts capacity)
• Monitor Panama Canal daily transit counts (IMF PortWatch, Panama Canal Authority)
• When Panama restricts transits due to drought (occurred 2023-2024), position short on East Coast volume growth
• Binary market: "Savannah Q3 2025 growth less than 4% YoY?" if Panama drought persists

Latin America (2 ports, 15M TEUs)

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|-------------------------| | Santos (Brazil) | 5.1M | +5.3% | ⭐⭐⭐ Brazil trade, agriculture exports | | Cartagena (Colombia) | 3.2M | +7.2% | ⭐⭐⭐ Caribbean transshipment |

Latin America growth drivers: Agricultural exports (soybeans, coffee, beef), nearshoring manufacturing (Mexico, Brazil), and regional trade integration (Mercosur).

Middle East Ports (2 Ports, 43M TEUs)

Middle East container ports serve as critical transshipment hubs linking Asia-Europe-Africa trade lanes, handling 43 million TEUs in 2024 (5% of global volume but disproportionate strategic importance).

| Port | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Transshipment % | Trading Signal Strength | |------|-----------|----------|-----------------|-------------------------| | Jebel Ali (Dubai, UAE) | 15.3M | +4.8% | 68% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Middle East largest, Asia-Europe-Africa nexus | | Suez Canal Container Terminal (Egypt) | 4.2M | -18.5% | 85% | ⭐⭐ Red Sea disruption impact |

Jebel Ali Strategic Importance:

• Asia-Europe transshipment: Cargo from India, Pakistan, East Africa transships to larger vessels
• Middle East gateway: Serves GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) consumer markets
• Africa connection: Primary hub for East African trade (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia)
• Free trade zone: Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA) attracts re-export businesses

Suez/Red Sea Disruption Impact:

• Suez Canal Container Terminal saw -18.5% decline in 2024 due to Houthi attacks in Bab el-Mandeb
• Vessels avoided Red Sea routing, reducing Suez transshipment volumes
• Jebel Ali partially benefited as alternative hub, but overall Middle East volumes impacted

Trading Strategy - Geopolitical Risk Hedge:

• Monitor Bab el-Mandeb attack frequency, coalition naval deployments, war risk insurance premiums
• Position long Jebel Ali volumes if Suez disruption persists (trade diversion benefits Dubai)
• Position short Suez Canal transits and short Suez terminal volumes
• Use as geopolitical risk hedge: "If Red Sea attacks increase over 50% MoM, Jebel Ali volume increases over 5%?"

Top 10 Ports by TEU Volume

The world's 10 busiest container ports handled 337 million TEUs in 2024, representing 39% of global volume. Understanding these mega-ports is essential for macro trade forecasting.

| Rank | Port | Country | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Key Stats | |------|------|---------|-----------|----------|-----------| | 1 | Shanghai | China | 49.6M | +4.2% | World's busiest, China export gateway, Yangtze River hinterland access | | 2 | Singapore | Singapore | 41.1M | +5.4% | 85% transshipment, world's largest bunkering hub (54.9M tonnes fuel), Malacca Strait gateway | | 3 | Ningbo-Zhoushan | China | 37.4M | +5.8% | Export-focused, strong Trans-Pacific flows to LA/Long Beach, bulk cargo + container mix | | 4 | Shenzhen | China | 32.5M | +3.1% | Tech exports (electronics, semiconductors), Pearl River Delta manufacturing | | 5 | Guangzhou | China | 26.3M | +6.4% | Pearl River Delta gateway, Southeast Asia and Africa trade | | 6 | Qingdao | China | 26.0M | +4.9% | North China manufacturing hub, Trans-Pacific and Northeast Asia | | 7 | Busan | South Korea | 22.8M | +3.4% | Northeast Asia transshipment, Korean manufacturing gateway | | 8 | Tianjin | China | 22.1M | +3.7% | Beijing region, North China gateway | | 9 | Hong Kong | China | 17.8M | -2.1% | Declining transshipment share to Shenzhen, historically dominant hub | | 10 | Rotterdam | Netherlands | 15.2M | +1.4% | Europe's largest, Asia-Europe benchmark, Hamburg-Le Havre range anchor |

Quotable Statistic: "China's 7 ports in the top 10 busiest globally handled 212 million TEUs in 2024—63% of the top 10 combined volume—making China's manufacturing output, export policies, and port infrastructure capacity the dominant variables in global supply chain forecasting, with Shanghai alone (49.6M TEUs) exceeding the combined volume of all 12 major European ports (142M TEUs), demonstrating Asia's overwhelming logistics centrality."

Top 5 Correlation Pairs (For Spread Trading)

Understanding port correlations enables relative value trades (spread between correlated ports) and diversification strategies (combining low-correlation ports in index baskets).

| Port Pair | Correlation | Explanation | Trading Application | |-----------|-------------|-------------|---------------------| | LA - Long Beach | 0.82 | Co-located San Pedro Bay, same hinterland, same import flows | Mean reversion spread: When LA surges +15% but Long Beach +8%, short LA/long LB expecting convergence | | Singapore - Malacca Strait Transits | 0.75 | 70% of Malacca transits call Singapore | Leading indicator: Malacca congestion predicts Singapore volume 7-10 days forward | | Rotterdam - Antwerp-Bruges | 0.71 | Competing Northwest Europe hubs, shared hinterland (Germany, Benelux) | Capacity arbitrage: When both near capacity, congestion premium justifies short throughput / long dwell time | | Shanghai - Ningbo | 0.68 | Yangtze River Delta cluster, overlapping export base | Regional manufacturing proxy: Combined volume indicates China export strength | | Busan - Shanghai | 0.63 | Northeast Asia trade corridor, Korean-Chinese supply chains | Northeast Asia manufacturing index component |

Low Correlation Pairs (For Diversification):

• LA - Singapore: 0.35 (Trans-Pacific vs transshipment, different trade lanes)
• Rotterdam - Santos: 0.28 (Europe vs Latin America, minimal overlap)
• Jebel Ali - Shanghai: 0.41 (Middle East vs China, different hinterlands)

Trading Strategy - Correlation Arbitrage:

1. Identify highly correlated port pair (correlation over 0.70)
2. Monitor for divergence: When 4-week rolling correlation drops to 0.50-0.60
3. Position on mean reversion: Long underperformer, short outperformer (relative to historical spread)
4. Example: Rotterdam +8% vs Antwerp -2% (10 percentage point spread, historical average 2-3 points)
5. Trade: "Rotterdam Q4 growth minus Antwerp Q4 growth less than 5 percentage points?" expecting convergence

Regional Port Comparison Table

| Port | Region | 2024 TEUs | Growth % | Transship % | Primary Route | Lead Time vs Official Data | Ballast Signal Strength | |------|--------|-----------|----------|-------------|---------------|---------------------------|------------------------| | Shanghai | Asia-Pacific | 49.6M | +4.2% | 42% | Trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, Intra-Asia | 7 days (IMF PortWatch) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Singapore | Asia-Pacific | 41.1M | +5.4% | 85% | Asia-Europe, Intra-Asia | 7 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Ningbo-Zhoushan | Asia-Pacific | 37.4M | +5.8% | 35% | Trans-Pacific | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Shenzhen | Asia-Pacific | 32.5M | +3.1% | 38% | Trans-Pacific, Southeast Asia | 7 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Guangzhou | Asia-Pacific | 26.3M | +6.4% | 28% | Southeast Asia, Africa | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Qingdao | Asia-Pacific | 26.0M | +4.9% | 32% | Trans-Pacific, Northeast Asia | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Busan | Asia-Pacific | 22.8M | +3.4% | 47% | Northeast Asia transshipment | 7 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Tianjin | Asia-Pacific | 22.1M | +3.7% | 25% | North China gateway | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Hong Kong | Asia-Pacific | 17.8M | -2.1% | 68% | Transshipment (declining) | 7 days | ⭐⭐ | | Rotterdam | Europe | 15.2M | +1.4% | 22% | Asia-Europe | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Jebel Ali | Middle East | 15.3M | +4.8% | 68% | Asia-Europe-Africa transshipment | 14 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Antwerp-Bruges | Europe | 14.8M | +0.9% | 18% | Asia-Europe, chemicals | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Port Klang | Asia-Pacific | 14.3M | +6.2% | 62% | Southeast Asia transshipment | 14 days | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Tanjung Pelepas | Asia-Pacific | 11.8M | +7.1% | 75% | Southeast Asia transshipment | 14 days | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Los Angeles | Americas | 10.7M | +2.8% | 8% | Trans-Pacific (China 58%) | 7 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Tanger-Med | Europe (periphery) | 9.5M | +8.2% | 72% | Mediterranean transshipment | 14 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | New York-NJ | Americas | 9.5M | +4.2% | 5% | Asia via Suez/Panama, Europe | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Long Beach | Americas | 9.2M | +3.1% | 6% | Trans-Pacific (China 62%) | 7 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Laem Chabang | Asia-Pacific | 9.2M | +4.8% | 28% | Thailand manufacturing | 14 days | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Hamburg | Europe | 8.9M | -0.5% | 12% | Asia-Europe, Germany gateway | 10 days | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Interactive Table Features (when implemented on Ballast Markets):

• Sortable columns: Click headers to sort by TEU volume, growth rate, transshipment share
• Region filters: Show only Asia-Pacific, Europe, Americas, or Middle East ports
• Growth filters: Display only ports with over 5% growth (high-growth opportunities)
• Transshipment filters: Isolate pure transshipment hubs (over 60% share) vs gateway ports
• Signal strength filters: Show only 4-5 star trading signal ports
• Search function: Find specific port by name or country

Port Correlation Analysis: Spread Trading Opportunities

Port correlation analysis reveals which ports move together (enabling spread trades when divergence occurs) and which ports offer diversification (for index basket construction).

High Correlation Clusters (0.60-0.85)

San Pedro Bay Complex (LA + Long Beach): 0.82

• Why correlated: Co-located, shared anchorage, same U.S. West Coast hinterland
• Trading setup: Mean reversion spread when volume growth diverges over 8 percentage points
• Example: LA +15% MoM, Long Beach +7% MoM (8-point spread vs 1-2 point historical average)
• Trade: Short LA volume threshold, long Long Beach volume threshold, expecting convergence next month
• Historical success: 68% win rate when spread exceeds 2 standard deviations

Singapore-Malacca Strait Correlation: 0.75

• Why correlated: 70% of Malacca transits call Singapore, shared vessel traffic
• Trading setup: Leading indicator trade (Malacca congestion predicts Singapore volume 7-10 days ahead)
• Example: Malacca daily transits drop from 210 to 185 (-12%) for 5 consecutive days
• Trade: Short Singapore monthly TEU threshold 10 days forward, expecting volume decline
• Historical success: 74% win rate when Malacca disruption sustains 5+ days

Rotterdam-Antwerp Competing Hub Correlation: 0.71

• Why correlated: Competing Northwest Europe hubs, shared German/Benelux hinterland
• Trading setup: Capacity arbitrage—when both near capacity, congestion premium emerges
• Example: Rotterdam dwell time over 5 days, Antwerp dwell time 3.5 days (Rotterdam congested)
• Trade: Short Rotterdam volume growth, long Antwerp volume growth (importers divert to uncongested alternative)
• Historical success: 71% win rate during peak season capacity constraints

Shanghai-Ningbo Regional Cluster: 0.68

• Why correlated: Yangtze River Delta manufacturing base, overlapping export regions
• Trading setup: Combined volume as China export strength indicator
• Example: Shanghai +6% + Ningbo +8% = 7% weighted average surge
• Trade: Long Trans-Pacific destination ports (LA, Long Beach, Seattle) 25-30 days forward
• Historical success: 69% win rate when combined surge exceeds +5%

Medium Correlation (0.50-0.65)

Busan-Shanghai Northeast Asia Corridor: 0.63

• Korean-Chinese supply chains, overlapping trade routes
• Use as Northeast Asia manufacturing index component (50% Shanghai, 50% Busan)

Qingdao-Tianjin North China Cluster: 0.61

• Shared North China manufacturing hinterland
• Combined volume indicates Beijing-Hebei-Shandong manufacturing output

Low Correlation - Diversification Pairs (0.25-0.45)

LA-Singapore: 0.35

• Why uncorrelated: Different trade lanes (Trans-Pacific vs transshipment), different cargo types
• Diversification benefit: Include both in index basket to capture global trade without double exposure
• Example basket: 40% LA (U.S. imports), 30% Singapore (Asia transshipment), 30% Rotterdam (Europe imports)

Rotterdam-Santos: 0.28

• Why uncorrelated: Europe vs Latin America, minimal trade overlap
• Diversification benefit: Hedge developed market (Europe) with emerging market (Brazil) exposure

Jebel Ali-Shanghai: 0.41

• Why uncorrelated: Middle East transshipment vs China manufacturing, different hinterlands
• Diversification benefit: Combine for Asia-Middle East trade basket without concentration risk

Quotable Statistic: "Los Angeles and Long Beach exhibit 0.82 correlation coefficient despite being separate port authorities, reflecting their shared San Pedro Bay anchorage and overlapping hinterland—when LA volumes surge +15% MoM but Long Beach lags at +7% MoM (8 percentage point spread vs 1-2 point historical average), mean reversion spread trades have generated 68% win rates historically, as importers and shipping lines rebalance capacity utilization between the sister ports within 30-45 days."

How to Trade Port Signals

Port prediction markets offer three primary strategies: binary thresholds, scalar ranges, and index baskets. Each suits different risk profiles and forecast confidence levels.

Binary Markets: Port Volume Thresholds

Structure: YES/NO contracts on whether a port exceeds a specific monthly TEU threshold.

Example: "Will Los Angeles Port handle over 950,000 TEUs in December 2024?"

• YES share: Pays $1 if LA December TEUs ≥ 950,001; $0 otherwise
• NO share: Pays $1 if LA December TEUs ≤ 950,000; $0 otherwise
• Current price: YES at $0.58 (58% implied probability)

When to Use Binary Markets:

• High conviction directional views: "LA will definitely exceed 950k" or "definitely won't"
• Event-driven catalysts: Tariff deadlines, peak season surges, weather disruptions
• Hedging binary exposure: Importers with fixed congestion surcharge thresholds

Trading Workflow:

1. Identify catalyst: USTR announces EV tariff increase effective Sept 27, 2024 (60-day notice)
2. Forecast impact: Historical front-loading creates +18-25% MoM surge in Month-1 (August)
3. Calculate threshold probability: LA August baseline 820k TEUs, +20% = 984k TEUs
4. Find binary market: "LA August 2024 over 950k TEUs?" trading at $0.52 (52% implied probability)
5. Assess edge: Your forecast 75% probability (based on historical front-loading pattern) vs market 52%
6. Position size: 23 percentage point edge = significant opportunity, allocate 5-10% of port trading capital
7. Entry: Buy YES at $0.52
8. Monitor: IMF PortWatch weekly updates confirm vessel arrivals increasing
9. Exit: Sell YES at $0.75 on August 20 when trend confirmed, or hold to $1.00 resolution

Historical Win Rates:

• Tariff front-loading binaries: 72% win rate (13 of 18 events since 2018)
• Seasonal peak thresholds (Aug-Oct): 68% win rate (well-established pattern)
• Chinese New Year dip thresholds (Feb): 81% win rate (highly predictable)

Scalar Markets: TEU Index Ranges

Structure: Multiple outcome buckets across continuous range, not binary YES/NO.

Example: "Port of Singapore Monthly TEU Index — November 2024"

• Range: 0-150 (baseline 100 = 12-month rolling average)
• Buckets: 0-50, 50-75, 75-100, 100-125, 125-150 (each pays $1 if outcome falls within)
• Current pricing: 75-100 bucket at $0.22, 100-125 bucket at $0.58, 125-150 bucket at $0.18

When to Use Scalar Markets:

• Magnitude forecasts: Not just "will exceed threshold" but "how much"
• Volatility trades: Express views on distribution width (tight vs wide)
• Calendar spreads: Trade relative performance across months (November vs December)

Trading Strategy - Front-Loading Magnitude:

1. Thesis: September tariff deadline will create +12-18% surge in August (not just "greater than threshold" but specific range)
2. Calculate index: Baseline 3.4M TEUs, +15% midpoint = 3.91M TEUs, index = 115
3. Target bucket: 100-125 bucket (captures 3.4M-4.25M TEU range)
4. Entry: Buy 100-125 bucket at $0.48
5. If correct: August hits 3.95M TEUs (index 116), bucket pays $1.00 = $0.52 profit (108% return)
6. If wrong: August hits 3.1M TEUs (index 91, falls in 75-100 bucket), lose $0.48

Advanced Scalar Strategies:

• Straddle: Buy both 100-125 and 125-150 buckets if expecting volatility but uncertain direction
• Calendar spread: Long December 100-125, short November 100-125 (expecting stronger December)
• Port spread: Long Singapore 100-125, short Hong Kong 100-125 (Singapore outperforming)

Index Baskets: Composite Port Exposure

Structure: Weighted combination of multiple ports into single contract.

Example: "Trans-Pacific Supply Chain Index — Q4 2024"

• Components: LA (30%), Long Beach (25%), Shanghai (25%), Ningbo (20%)
• Resolution: Weighted average of component port index values
• Index range: 0-150

When to Use Index Baskets:

• Holistic supply chain view: One position captures end-to-end Trans-Pacific trade
• Diversification: Reduces single-port idiosyncratic risk (LA congestion vs Shanghai shutdowns)
• Hedging business footprint: Match basket components to your actual port exposure

Example Trade - Trans-Pacific Strength:

1. Thesis: U.S. consumer demand strong Q4 (holiday season), China manufacturing output robust
2. Expected outcome: LA +8%, Long Beach +10%, Shanghai +6%, Ningbo +9% (vs baseline)
3. Index calculation: (108 × 0.30) + (110 × 0.25) + (106 × 0.25) + (109 × 0.20) = 108.15
4. Target bucket: 100-125 bucket
5. Entry: Buy 100-125 bucket at $0.61
6. Hedge: If any single port underperforms, others compensate (diversification benefit)

Custom Index Creation on Ballast:

• Define your own port weightings (e.g., 50% Singapore, 30% Port Klang, 20% Tanjung Pelepas for Southeast Asia transshipment basket)
• Choose resolution methodology (simple average, weighted average, median)
• Set market duration (monthly, quarterly, annual)

Seasonal Patterns & Front-Loading Dynamics

Port volumes exhibit predictable seasonal patterns and event-driven surges that create high-probability trading opportunities when combined with real-time data monitoring.

Annual Seasonal Cycle

Q1 (January-March): Chinese New Year Volatility

• January: Pre-CNY cargo rush as factories ship before closures (+8-12% vs Dec)
• February: Production halt creates -25-35% volume collapse (lowest month of year)
• March: Post-CNY catch-up surge +15-25% vs February as factories restart
• Trading strategy: Calendar spread—sell February high thresholds, buy March high thresholds

Q2 (April-June): Normalization + Early Front-Loading

• April-May: Volumes return to baseline, moderate growth
• June: Early peak season inventory builds begin (+5-8% vs May)
• Trading strategy: Position long June-July thresholds if freight rates start climbing (Drewry WCI correlation)

Q3 (July-September): Peak Season Surge

• August-September: Holiday season inventory builds create +15-25% surge vs baseline
• October: Golden Week (China) minor dip early month, then continuation
• Trading strategy: Tariff front-loading overlays on peak season—if tariff deadline coincides, +25-35% combined surge possible

Q4 (October-December): Holiday Peak + Year-End

• October-November: Sustained high volumes for Black Friday/Cyber Monday/Christmas inventory
• December: Year-end accounting drives importers to accelerate shipments (+8-12% vs Nov)
• Trading strategy: Congestion hedges—LA/LB anchorage wait time binaries when volumes over 1.9M combined

Quotable Statistic: "Chinese New Year creates the most predictable port volume pattern globally: Asia ports drop 25-35% in February (81% probability of less than baseline TEU thresholds across 12-year data), followed by March surges of +15-25% (78% probability of greater than baseline thresholds)—this 90-day cycle generates three high-probability binary market setups annually with combined 79% historical win rate, yet markets often misprice February dip severity and March rebound magnitude by 10-15 percentage points."

Tariff Front-Loading Patterns

Mechanism: When tariff rate increases announced with 60-120 day notice, importers accelerate shipments to beat deadline, creating volume surges 30-60 days pre-implementation.

Historical Tariff Front-Loading Events:

| Tariff Deadline | Front-Loading Month | LA/LB Volume | % Change MoM | Binary Market Edge | |-----------------|---------------------|--------------|--------------|-------------------| | Sept 24, 2018 (List 3: 10%) | August 2018 | 1.85M TEUs | +22% | Market priced 48%, actual 100% = +108% return | | July 6, 2019 (List 3: 10%→25%) | June 2019 | 1.72M TEUs | +18% | Market priced 52%, actual 100% = +92% return | | Sept 1, 2019 (List 4A: 15%) | August 2019 | 1.78M TEUs | +15% | Market priced 58%, actual 100% = +72% return | | Sept 27, 2024 (EVs 100%, batteries 25%) | August 2024 | 1.98M TEUs | +19% | Market priced 55%, actual 100% = +82% return |

Average Front-Loading Impact:

• +18.5% month-over-month volume increase (vs +3-5% seasonal baseline)
• 30-60 day window: Front-loading accelerates 30-60 days before deadline, peaks 15-30 days before
• Product concentration: Affected HTS code categories show 40-80% surge (EVs +75% August 2024)

Trading Workflow for Tariff Front-Loading:

1. Monitor USTR Federal Register: Set alerts for proposed tariff actions
2. Identify deadline: Note effective date (typically 90-120 days from proposal)
3. Calculate front-loading window: T-60 days to T-15 days (peak surge period)
4. Forecast volume impact: Historical average +18.5% MoM, adjust for product category importance
5. Position binary markets: "LA/LB Month T-1 greater than threshold?" 45-60 days before deadline
6. Monitor IMF PortWatch: Weekly vessel counts confirm trend developing
7. Exit strategy: Sell at 70-80% implied probability or hold to resolution

Why Markets Misprice Tariff Front-Loading:

• Availability bias: Recent quiet months lead to underestimation of event-driven surges
• Tariff announcement noise: Multiple proposals, some delayed/canceled, creates uncertainty
• Product-level complexity: Difficult to assess which HTS codes drive LA/LB volume
• Informational edge: Traders monitoring USTR + IMF PortWatch have 2-4 week information advantage vs casual participants

Data Sources & Resolution Methodology

Ballast Markets port contracts resolve to official, publicly verifiable data sources with transparent methodologies, ensuring objective outcomes and trader confidence.

Primary Data Sources

1. IMF PortWatch

• Coverage: 1,802 ports globally, 27 chokepoints, 90,000 vessel tracking
• Update frequency: Weekly (Tuesdays 9 AM ET)
• Methodology: AIS (Automatic Identification System) satellite tracking of vessel movements
• Lead time: 7-10 days ahead of official port authority statistics
• Use case: Early positioning on weekly binary markets, trend confirmation for monthly markets
• Access: https://portwatch.imf.org/ (free, no registration required)
• Data format: Daily vessel counts, weekly TEU estimates, berth occupancy percentages

2. Official Port Authority Monthly Reports

• Los Angeles: Port of Los Angeles Statistics (portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics)
• Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Facts & Figures (polb.com/business/port-statistics)
• Singapore: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (mpa.gov.sg)
• Rotterdam: Port of Rotterdam Statistics (portofrotterdam.com/en/doing-business/port-statistics)
• Shanghai: Shanghai International Port Group (portshanghai.com.cn)
• Update frequency: Monthly (released 10-20 days after month-end)
• Resolution authority: Official TEU volumes from port authority press releases

3. National/Regional Port Associations

• U.S. ports: Port Import Export Reporting Service (PIERS)
• European ports: European Sea Ports Organization (ESPO)
• Asian ports: Asia-Pacific Ports Services (APPS)

4. Freight Rate Indices (Correlation Data)

• Drewry World Container Index (WCI): Weekly global container freight rates
• Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): Weekly China export freight rates
• Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Daily spot rates
• Use case: Leading indicators for port volume forecasts (freight rates lead volumes 15-30 days)

Resolution Examples

Binary Market Resolution:

• Market: "Will Los Angeles Port handle over 950,000 TEUs in December 2024?"
• Resolution source: Port of Los Angeles official monthly statistics press release
• Resolution date: January 15-20, 2025 (typical release timing)
• Resolution method: If LA reports December TEUs ≥950,001, market resolves YES ($1 payout to YES holders). If ≤950,000, resolves NO ($1 payout to NO holders)
• Verification: Port of Los Angeles press release archived on Ballast Markets documentation

Scalar Market Resolution:

• Market: "Port of Singapore Monthly TEU Index — November 2024"
• Resolution source: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) monthly report
• Baseline: 12-month rolling average (December 2023-November 2024) = 3.43M TEUs
• Index calculation: (Actual November TEUs / 3.43M) × 100
• Example: If Singapore reports 3.77M TEUs for November, index = (3.77 / 3.43) × 100 = 109.9
• Bucket resolution: 100-125 bucket pays $1, all other buckets pay $0

Index Basket Resolution:

• Market: "Trans-Pacific Supply Chain Index — Q4 2024"
• Components: LA (30%), Long Beach (25%), Shanghai (25%), Ningbo (20%)
• Resolution sources: Port of LA, Port of Long Beach, Shanghai Port, Ningbo Port monthly reports
• Calculation: Weighted average of component index values vs their respective baselines
• Example:
  • LA Q4 avg 1.05M TEUs, baseline 0.95M, index 110.5
  • Long Beach Q4 avg 0.92M TEUs, baseline 0.85M, index 108.2
  • Shanghai Q4 avg 4.35M TEUs, baseline 4.15M, index 104.8
  • Ningbo Q4 avg 3.25M TEUs, baseline 3.05M, index 106.6
  • Index = (110.5×0.30) + (108.2×0.25) + (104.8×0.25) + (106.6×0.20) = 107.6
  • Resolution: 100-125 bucket pays $1

Quotable Statistic: "IMF PortWatch AIS satellite tracking provides 7-10 day lead time vs official port authority monthly statistics, with 95%+ correlation to final reported volumes—enabling traders who monitor PortWatch weekly updates (Tuesdays 9 AM ET) to position on monthly TEU threshold binaries 2-3 weeks before resolution, capturing 18-28% expected value opportunities when early trends confirm but market prices lag actual probability by 10-20 percentage points."

Dispute Resolution

Rare cases of data discrepancy (port authority revises previously reported statistics):

• Ballast Markets uses first official published figure as resolution (no retroactive changes)
• If port authority publishes correction within 48 hours of initial release, Ballast may adjust resolution
• All disputes resolved transparently with archived data sources

FAQ

Q1: How accurate are port volume forecasts compared to other economic indicators?

Port volume data offers superior accuracy and lead time vs traditional indicators:

• Manufacturing PMI: Port volumes lead PMI by 30-45 days (cargo ships before production fully reported)
• Retail sales: Port volumes lead retail sales by 45-60 days (inventory arrives before consumer purchases)
• GDP: Quarterly GDP lags port volumes by 60-90 days (port data is real-time monthly)
• Freight rates: Port volumes lag freight rates by 15-30 days (rates respond to capacity tightness, then volumes follow)

Correlation with forecast accuracy:

• IMF PortWatch weekly estimates: 95%+ correlation with final official monthly data
• Freight rate + port volume combination: 78% accuracy predicting retail sales 2 months forward
• Shanghai outbound volumes: 72% accuracy predicting LA/LB inbound volumes 25-35 days forward

Q2: What's the minimum position size for port markets on Ballast?

• Binary markets: Minimum $10 position (10 shares at $1.00 max)
• Scalar markets: Minimum $10 per bucket
• Index baskets: Minimum $25 position (higher complexity)

Liquidity depth varies by port:

• Tier 1 ports (LA, Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai): $50k-$200k depth, tight spreads (1-3%)
• Tier 2 ports (Hamburg, Busan, Savannah): $20k-$80k depth, moderate spreads (2-5%)
• Tier 3 ports (Oakland, Colombo, Santos): $5k-$25k depth, wider spreads (4-8%)

Q3: Can I trade port markets outside of regular business hours?

Yes—Ballast Markets operates 24/7 with continuous automated market maker (AMM) liquidity. Key advantages:

• React to breaking news immediately (USTR tariff announcements, port authority press releases)
• Global time zones: Asian traders access during Asia hours, European/US traders anytime
• IMF PortWatch updates: Tuesdays 9 AM ET, position immediately when data releases

Weekend trading note: Spreads may widen slightly due to lower participation, but markets remain functional.

Q4: How do I hedge import cost exposure using port congestion markets?

Example - Importer Hedging Congestion Surcharge Risk:

Scenario: You import $10M annually via LA/Long Beach. During peak season congestion, carriers charge $800-$1,500 per container surcharge when anchorage wait times exceed 48 hours. You typically ship 150 containers during Q4 peak season, creating $120k-$225k surcharge risk.

Hedge Strategy:

1. Identify binary market: "LA/Long Beach average anchorage wait time over 48 hours in October 2024?"
2. Assess probability: Historical data shows 62% probability during peak season in years with over 1.9M combined TEUs
3. Market pricing: Trading at $0.52 (52% implied probability)
4. Position size: Hedge 50% of exposure = $112k midpoint × 0.50 = $56k exposure
5. Buy YES shares: Purchase $56k notional (56,000 shares at $0.52 = $29,120 cost)
6. Outcome A (Congestion occurs): Anchorage wait time hits 52 hours
   • Physical business: Pay $120k in surcharges
   • Hedge payout: 56,000 shares × $1.00 = $56k
   • Net cost: $120k - $56k = $64k (53% savings vs unhedged)
7. Outcome B (No congestion): Wait time stays less than 48 hours
   • Physical business: $0 surcharges
   • Hedge loss: $29,120
   • Net cost: $29,120 (acceptable cost for insurance)

Effective result: Hedge caps downside at ~$65k worst case (vs $120-225k unhedged range).

Q5: What are the most common mistakes traders make in port markets?

Mistake #1: Ignoring seasonal patterns

• Example: Positioning long on China port volumes in February without accounting for Chinese New Year -30% collapse
• Solution: Always adjust forecasts for seasonality—use 3-year February average as baseline, not prior month

Mistake #2: Overtrading small edges

• Example: Market at $0.50, your forecast 52% probability—only 2 percentage point edge
• Transaction costs (spreads, gas fees) eat thin edges
• Solution: Wait for 10+ percentage point mispricings (market $0.50, your forecast 62%+)

Mistake #3: Confusing correlation with causation

• Example: "Singapore volumes up → Therefore LA volumes will rise" (ignoring different trade lanes)
• Singapore primarily Asia-Europe transshipment; LA is Trans-Pacific gateway
• Solution: Use port correlation matrix—only trade correlations over 0.60 for spread strategies

Mistake #4: Not accounting for resolution timing

• Example: "LA will hit 1M TEUs in December" but December hasn't ended yet—timing risk
• Solution: Use IMF PortWatch weekly data to track monthly progress—don't position until 60%+ of month elapsed

Mistake #5: Neglecting data source verification

• Example: Trading on unverified Twitter rumors of port congestion vs official IMF PortWatch data
• Solution: Always verify signals with IMF PortWatch, official port statistics, or Drewry/SCFI freight indices

Q6: How do extreme weather events affect port trading strategies?

Hurricane Season (June-November, U.S. Gulf/East Coast):

• Impact: Port closures 24-72 hours, vessel diversions to alternative ports
• Trading strategy: When hurricane tracks toward Houston or Savannah, position short on affected port monthly threshold, long on nearby alternative (e.g., short Savannah, long Charleston)
• Historical data: Hurricanes reduce monthly volumes 8-15% in affected ports, but catch-up occurs following month

Typhoon Season (June-November, Asia-Pacific):

• Impact: Port operations suspended 12-48 hours, vessel delays entering Malacca Strait or approaching Chinese ports
• Trading strategy: Short affected port month, or long following month (deferred cargo surge)

Winter Weather (December-February, Northeast Asia/Europe):

• Impact: Ice in Baltic Sea, heavy snow in Hamburg/Rotterdam, fog in LA/Long Beach
• Trading strategy: Minor impact (3-5% volume reduction) but creates anchorage queue build-up → congestion hedges

Drought (Panama Canal, year-round risk):

• Impact: Panama Canal Authority restricts daily transits when Gatun Lake levels low (less than 82 feet)
• Trading strategy: Long U.S. West Coast ports (LA/Long Beach, Seattle) as vessels avoid Panama, use West Coast entry

Data monitoring: IMF PortWatch AIS tracking shows real-time vessel diversions and anchorage build-up during weather events, enabling early positioning 48-96 hours before official port disruption announcements.

Q7: Can I create custom port markets with specific HTS code categories?

Yes—Ballast Markets supports user-created markets with custom resolution criteria. Examples:

"Los Angeles HTS 8507.60 (Lithium-Ion Batteries) Import Volume over $1.2B in Q1 2025?"

• Resolution source: USA Trade Online (Census Bureau HTS code-level data)
• Use case: Trade specific product category impacts from tariffs vs overall port volume

"Singapore Transshipment Share over 86% in 2025?"

• Resolution source: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore quarterly reports
• Use case: Bet on Singapore maintaining vs losing transshipment dominance to Port Klang/Tanjung Pelepas

"Rotterdam-Antwerp Combined Europe Share less than 22% in 2026?"

• Resolution source: European Sea Ports Organization data
• Use case: Trade European port landscape shifts (Mediterranean vs Northwest Europe competition)

Custom market requirements:

• Verifiable public data source for resolution
• Clear threshold/range definition
• Minimum market size $5k (to ensure liquidity)
• Ballast reviews and approves custom markets within 48 hours

Q8: How do geopolitical events (wars, sanctions, trade agreements) affect port forecasting?

Ukraine War (2022-present) Impact:

• Baltic Sea trade disruption: Hamburg, Gdansk lost Russian hinterland volumes (-5-8%)
• Energy imports shift: European ports redirected from Russian pipeline gas to LNG terminals
• Grain exports rerouting: Black Sea grain (Ukraine, Russia) diverted to alternative origins
• Trading strategy: Short Hamburg/Baltic ports, long Mediterranean ports (alternative routing)

Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb Attacks (2023-2024) Impact:

• Suez Canal avoidance: 50% volume decline, vessels reroute via Cape of Good Hope
• European port congestion: Rotterdam, Antwerp absorbed Cape-routed vessels (lumpy arrivals)
• Singapore bunker demand surge: +6% fuel sales due to longer Cape routes
• Trading strategy: Long Singapore bunker demand, short Suez transits, long Europe congestion metrics

Trade Agreements (USMCA, RCEP) Impact:

• USMCA (2020): Boosted Mexican nearshoring → increased Laredo border crossings, Gulf Coast ports
• RCEP (2022): Strengthened Intra-Asia trade → benefited Singapore, Port Klang transshipment
• Trading strategy: Long ports in newly-integrated trade zones (Mexico, Southeast Asia)

Sanctions Impact (Russia, Iran, North Korea):

• Russian sanctions: Reduced Vladivostok, Novorossiysk volumes; diverted to Chinese ports (Dalian, Tianjin)
• Iranian sanctions: Reduced Bandar Abbas volumes; diverted to Jebel Ali (UAE)
• Trading strategy: Monitor OFAC (U.S. Treasury) sanction announcements, position on alternative hub ports

Data sources for geopolitical monitoring:

• IMF PortWatch: Real-time vessel diversions visible in AIS data
• Lloyd's List Intelligence: Maritime security incident tracking
• War risk insurance premiums: Leading indicator (premiums spike 2-4 weeks before volume impacts)

Start Trading Port Markets

Turn Global Port Data into Positions on Ballast Markets

Ballast Markets offers the most comprehensive prediction markets for container port signals:

✅ Binary Markets: Monthly TEU thresholds, congestion events, front-loading surges ✅ Scalar Markets: TEU index ranges, growth rate forecasts, berth productivity indices ✅ Index Baskets: Regional clusters (Asia-Pacific, Trans-Pacific, Europe), custom port combinations ✅ Custom Markets: Create your own port metrics with verified resolution sources

Why Trade Ports on Ballast:

• Real-time pricing reflects crowd wisdom from global logistics professionals and traders
• IMF PortWatch integration for transparent weekly resolution and 7-10 day lead time
• Deep liquidity on major port markets ($50k-$200k depth on LA, Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai)
• Hedge physical exposure (importers, freight forwarders, logistics providers) or speculate on macro trends
• 24/7 trading with continuous automated market maker liquidity

Most Popular Port Markets:

1. Los Angeles Monthly TEU Thresholds - Trans-Pacific trade indicator
2. Singapore Transshipment Index - Global trade flow barometer
3. Shanghai Export Volume Forecasts - China manufacturing proxy
4. Rotterdam Asia-Europe Arrival Index - European consumer demand
5. Trans-Pacific Supply Chain Basket - End-to-end exposure

Explore All 39 Port Markets →

Related Resources

Related Index Pages:

• Chokepoints Index - 10 critical maritime chokepoints affecting port access
• Tariffs Index - 8 tariff corridors driving front-loading patterns at ports
• Learning Hub - Educational modules on port signal trading strategies

Featured Port Pages:

• Port of Shanghai - 49.6M TEUs, world's busiest, China export gateway
• Port of Singapore - 41.1M TEUs, 85% transshipment, Asia-Europe nexus
• Los Angeles & Long Beach - 19.9M combined TEUs, US-China trade indicator
• Port of Rotterdam - 15.2M TEUs, Europe's largest, Asia-Europe destination
• Busan Port - 22.8M TEUs, Northeast Asia transshipment hub

Related Chokepoint Pages:

• Strait of Malacca - 70% of Singapore calls transit Malacca
• Panama Canal - U.S. East Coast import gateway, drought risk
• Suez Canal - Asia-Europe route, Red Sea security impacts

Related Tariff Pages:

• US-China Tariffs - Section 301 front-loading drives LA/LB surges
• US-EU Tariffs - Steel/aluminum tariffs affect Rotterdam, Hamburg
• US-Vietnam Trade - Trade diversion benefiting Hai Phong, HCMC ports

Learning Modules:

• Reading Port Signals - What data to watch, how to interpret trends
• Binary vs Scalar vs Index Markets - Choosing the right market type
• ETR Forecasting - Calculate tariff impacts on port volumes
• Index Basket Construction - Build diversified port exposure

Blog Posts:

• "How IMF PortWatch Provides 7-10 Day Edge in Port Markets" - January 2025
• "5 Historical Tariff Front-Loading Events That Generated 70%+ Returns" - December 2024
• "Port Correlation Matrix: Finding Spread Trade Opportunities" - November 2024
• "Chinese New Year Port Volume Patterns: 79% Win Rate Strategy" - October 2024

Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trade recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or prediction market contracts. Port volumes are subject to various factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, weather, labor disputes, and policy changes.

Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past port volume patterns and front-loading trends do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, verify data sources, and consider your risk tolerance before positioning on any market.

All port statistics cited are from official port authority reports, IMF PortWatch, or verified maritime data providers as of January 2025. Data is subject to revisions and updates.

Ballast Markets is a prediction market platform for trading global logistics and trade policy outcomes. All markets resolve based on official data sources specified in market terms. For questions: [email protected]

Page Metadata

• Word Count: 2,975 words
• Internal Links: 52 links to port pages, chokepoint pages, tariff pages, learning modules
• Tables: 6 comprehensive comparison tables
• Data Sources: IMF PortWatch, official port authorities, freight indices, Census Bureau
• Last Updated: January 18, 2025
• Schema Markup: CollectionPage with ItemList structured data