Learning Hub: Master Global Trade Prediction Markets

Welcome to the Ballast Markets Learning Hub

The most comprehensive curriculum for trading global logistics, trade policy, and geopolitical risk via prediction markets. This Learning Hub provides 10 structured modules across 3 difficulty tracks (Beginner, Intermediate, Advanced), designed to take you from zero knowledge to confident positioning on port volumes, tariff front-loading, chokepoint disruptions, and ETR forecasting.

What You'll Master:

Total Time Investment: ~120 minutes reading + practice trading Outcome: By completion, position confidently on major Ballast Markets with historical 65-72% win rates

Start Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 →

Table of Contents

  1. Curriculum Overview: 3 Tracks, 10 Modules
  2. Beginner Track (Modules 1-4, 35 minutes)
  3. Intermediate Track (Modules 5-8, 50 minutes)
  4. Advanced Track (Modules 9-10, 35 minutes)
  5. Learning Path Recommendations
  6. Practice Trading Guide
  7. Related Blog Posts & Case Studies
  8. FAQ
  9. Start Learning

Curriculum Overview: 3 Tracks, 10 Modules

Skill Tree & Prerequisites

BEGINNER TRACK (Required Foundation)
├─ Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 (8 min) [START HERE]
├─ Module 2: Reading Port Signals (10 min) [Requires Module 1]
├─ Module 3: Binary vs Scalar Markets (9 min) [Requires Module 1]
└─ Module 4: Data Sources & Verification (8 min) [Requires Modules 1-2]

INTERMEDIATE TRACK (Strategy Development)
├─ Module 5: ETR Forecasting (12 min) [Requires Modules 1, 4]
├─ Module 6: Index Basket Construction (11 min) [Requires Modules 1, 3]
├─ Module 7: Front-Loading Strategies (15 min) [Requires Modules 2, 4, 5]
└─ Module 8: Position Sizing & Risk Management (12 min) [Requires Modules 1-3]

ADVANCED TRACK (Expert Positioning)
├─ Module 9: Chokepoint Risk Analysis (18 min) [Requires Intermediate Track completion]
└─ Module 10: Creating & Resolving Markets (17 min) [Requires all prior modules]

Quotable Framework: "The Ballast Markets curriculum uses a competency-based progression model: Beginner track (35 minutes) teaches what to trade (port volumes, ETR, chokepoints), Intermediate track (50 minutes) teaches how to trade (binary setups, scalar positioning, basket diversification), and Advanced track (35 minutes) teaches when to trade (geopolitical catalysts, market creation timing)—by completion, you'll have replicated the decision framework that generated 72% win rates on Section 301 front-loading binaries and 68% win rates on Suez normalization markets, with real capital positioned on Ballast Markets."

Beginner Track (Modules 1-4, 35 minutes)

Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 (8 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Concepts:

Example Exercise: Market: "Will Shanghai Port handle over 4.5M TEUs in December 2024?"

Practice Trade: After completing module, position $10-25 on simple binary: "Los Angeles Port over 900k TEUs in [current month]?" using historical monthly averages from Port of LA website to form probability estimate.

Read Full Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 →

Module 2: Reading Port & Chokepoint Signals (10 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Concepts:

Data Interpretation Example:

Chokepoint Signals:

Practice Trade: Monitor IMF PortWatch for 1 week. When you see Shanghai departures surge over 12% vs average for 2 consecutive weeks, position $10-25 on "LA Port Month+1 greater than threshold" binary, accounting for 14-day transit time.

Read Full Module 2: Reading Port & Chokepoint Signals →

Module 3: Binary vs Scalar vs Index Markets (9 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Concepts:

Binary Markets:

Scalar Markets:

Index Baskets:

Decision Tree:

  1. High confidence + specific threshold → Binary
  2. Directional confidence + magnitude uncertainty → Scalar
  3. Thematic view + diversification goal → Index basket
  4. Hedging correlated business risks → Index basket matching exposure

Practice Exercise: Forecast December LA Port volume:

Read Full Module 3: Binary vs Scalar Markets →

Module 4: Data Sources & Verification (8 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Data Sources:

1. IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org)

2. USTR Federal Register (federalregister.gov)

3. U.S. Census Bureau (census.gov/foreign-trade)

4. Port Authorities (Official Statistics)

5. Freight Rate Indices (Leading Indicators)

Alert Setup Guide:

  1. Google Alerts: "USTR Federal Register Section 301" (daily digest)
  2. IMF PortWatch bookmark: Check Tuesdays 9 AM ET for weekly updates
  3. Port authority email lists: Subscribe to LA, Long Beach, Singapore monthly reports
  4. Ballast Markets notifications: Enable resolution reminders for active positions

Practice Exercise:

Read Full Module 4: Data Sources & Verification →

Intermediate Track (Modules 5-8, 50 minutes)

Module 5: ETR Forecasting (12 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Concepts:

ETR Formula: ETR = (Total Duties Collected / Total Customs Value of Imports) × 100

Example Calculation (US-China, November 2024):

Why ETR ≠ Statutory Rate:

ETR Forecasting Workflow:

Step 1: Identify Policy Change

Step 2: Calculate ETR Impact

Step 3: Account for Trade Diversion

Step 4: Position on Scalar Market

Practice Exercise:

Read Full Module 5: ETR Forecasting →

Module 6: Index Basket Construction (11 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Key Concepts:

When to Use Index Baskets:

  1. Thematic exposure: "Trans-Pacific trade strengthening" (multiple ports + freight rates)
  2. Correlated hedging: Business exposure to multiple ports (importer using LA + Savannah + NY-NJ)
  3. Risk reduction: Diversify away single-port idiosyncratic risk (LA labor strike doesn't kill entire position)

Basket Design Framework:

Example 1: Trans-Pacific Supply Chain Basket

Thesis: U.S. consumer demand strong Q4, China manufacturing robust, Trans-Pacific volumes surge

Components:

  1. LA Port over 1.0M TEUs in December (30% weight) - U.S. gateway indicator
  2. Shanghai Port over 4.5M TEUs in December (25% weight) - China export indicator
  3. Ningbo Port over 3.2M TEUs in December (20% weight) - China export secondary
  4. Shanghai-LA freight rate over $3,000/FEU (25% weight) - Capacity tightness signal

Why These Weights:

Payout Scenarios:

Example 2: Suez Normalization Basket

Thesis: Red Sea security improves, Suez transits recover, Cape routing declines

Components:

  1. Suez Canal monthly transits over 1,500 vessels (40% weight) - Direct normalization
  2. Singapore bunker sales fewer than 4.7M tonnes/month (25% weight) - Less Cape routing fuel
  3. Rotterdam average dwell time fewer than 4.5 days (20% weight) - Europe congestion eases
  4. Cape of Good Hope transits fewer than 900 vessels/month (15% weight) - Inverse Cape signal

Correlation logic: All 4 components move together if Suez normalizes (positive correlation = basket amplifies returns if thesis correct, but also amplifies losses if wrong)

Practice Exercise:

Read Full Module 6: Index Basket Construction →

Module 7: Front-Loading Strategies (15 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

The 72% Win Rate Strategy:

Step-by-Step Workflow:

Step 1: Monitor USTR Federal Register (Daily Alerts)

Step 2: Identify High-Impact Tariffs

Step 3: Calculate Affected Import Value & Primary Ports

Step 4: Determine Front-Loading Window

Step 5: Position on Binary Market 45-60 Days Pre-Deadline

Step 6: Monitor IMF PortWatch for Confirmation (Weeks 2-4)

Step 7: Exit Strategy

Historical Performance:

Case Study: September 2024 EV/Battery/Steel Tariffs

Read Full Module 7: Front-Loading Strategies →

Module 8: Position Sizing & Risk Management (12 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Position Sizing Framework:

Rule 1: Size by Edge (Your Probability - Market Probability)

Example:

Rule 2: Kelly Criterion (Advanced)

Rule 3: Diversification Across Uncorrelated Markets

Stop Loss Guidelines:

Binary Markets:

Scalar Markets:

Profit-Taking Guidelines:

Conservative approach (Recommended for beginners):

Aggressive approach (Experienced traders with high conviction):

Portfolio Construction:

Example Portfolio (Beginner: $1,000 capital):

Correlation analysis: Allocations 1-2 uncorrelated (tariffs ≠ port volumes short-term), 3-4 correlated (Suez disruption → Singapore bunker demand), total exposure manageable

Read Full Module 8: Position Sizing & Risk Management →

Advanced Track (Modules 9-10, 35 minutes)

Module 9: Chokepoint Risk Analysis (18 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

Geopolitical Risk Framework:

Tier 1 Chokepoints (Highest Impact):

  1. Strait of Hormuz (21M bbl/day oil, 21% of global supply)

    • Threat: Iran-U.S. conflict, mining, missile attacks
    • Annual probability: 3-8% sustained disruption (over 7 days), 15-20% temporary disruption (1-3 days)
    • Impact if occurs: Oil prices +40-80%, global recession risk
    • Trading approach: Low-probability (8-15% implied), high-payout binary tail risk hedges

  2. Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb (12-15% of global trade)

    • Threat: Bab el-Mandeb Houthi attacks (access-based disruption to Suez)
    • Current status (2024): Ongoing attacks, 50% transit reduction
    • Normalization probability: 10-15% within 6 months (Gaza ceasefire required), 30-40% within 12 months
    • Trading approach: Medium-probability (35-45% implied) normalization markets

  3. Strait of Malacca (96,000 annual transits, 25% of global trade)

    • Threat: Collision/grounding (narrow 2.8 km channel), piracy (rare), geopolitical closure (extreme tail risk)
    • Annual probability: 2-5% temporary closure (fewer than 48 hours), fewer than 1% sustained disruption
    • Impact: Singapore port volumes -20-30%, bunker demand shifts, route diversion to Lombok/Sunda (+2-3 days)
    • Trading approach: High-probability (60-75%) temporary weather/accident closures, correlation with Singapore volumes

Alternative Routing Cost Analysis:

Suez Canal → Cape of Good Hope:

Trading opportunity: "War risk premium Bab el-Mandeb below $150k/voyage within 6 months?" signals potential Suez route resumption

Malacca Strait → Lombok Strait:

Business Hedging Use Case:

Example: Importer Using Suez Route

Hedge strategy:

Outcome A (Suez stays disrupted):

Outcome B (Suez normalizes):

Read Full Module 9: Chokepoint Risk Analysis →

Module 10: Creating & Resolving Markets (17 minutes)

Learning Objectives:

When to Create Custom Markets:

  1. Unique exposure: Your business has specific risk not covered by existing markets (e.g., "HTS 8507.60 battery imports from Vietnam over $500M/month 2025")
  2. Niche expertise: You have data/knowledge advantage in specific domain (e.g., "Turkey invokes Montreux Convention wartime provisions by Q2 2025")
  3. Hedging need: Existing markets don't match your exact threshold/timing (e.g., "LA Port over 1.05M TEUs in November specifically" vs generic thresholds)

Market Design Framework:

Step 1: Define Clear Resolution Criteria

Step 2: Choose Verifiable Data Source

Step 3: Set Time Horizon

Step 4: Determine Market Type

Step 5: Set Minimum Liquidity & Participation

Example Custom Market Creation:

Market Title: "HTS 8507.60 (Lithium-Ion Batteries) China Imports below $700M/Month Average 2025"

Resolution Criteria:

Rationale: September 2024 tariff increase (7.5% → 25%) on lithium-ion batteries makes trade diversion to Vietnam/Korea economically rational. Forecast 40-50% import decline from China baseline $1.1B/month → $600-700M/month.

Market Structure: Binary (YES/NO)

Initial Liquidity: Creator provides $1k YES, $1k NO at $0.50/$0.50 (50-50 odds) to seed trading

Resolution Authority: USA Trade Online official data, verified via Census Bureau press releases, archived on Ballast Markets documentation

Approval Process:

Market Maker Considerations:

If you create a market and provide initial liquidity, you're acting as market maker:

Read Full Module 10: Creating Markets on Ballast →

Learning Path Recommendations

Path 1: Port Volume Trader (Fastest ROI)

Goal: Position on LA/Long Beach front-loading binaries within 2 weeks

Curriculum:

  1. Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 (8 min) - Foundation
  2. Module 2: Reading Port Signals (10 min) - Data interpretation
  3. Module 4: Data Sources (8 min) - IMF PortWatch access
  4. Module 7: Front-Loading Strategies (15 min) - 72% win rate playbook
  5. Module 8: Position Sizing (12 min) - Risk management

Time: 53 minutes reading + 1 week practice trading $10-50 positions

First trade: "LA/Long Beach combined greater than threshold TEUs in [next tariff front-loading month]"

Path 2: Tariff Policy Forecaster (Medium-Term)

Goal: Forecast US-China ETR changes and HTS code-level trade diversion

Curriculum:

  1. Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 (8 min)
  2. Module 4: Data Sources (8 min) - USTR Federal Register, Census Bureau
  3. Module 5: ETR Forecasting (12 min) - Calculate tariff impact
  4. Module 3: Binary vs Scalar (9 min) - Choose appropriate market type
  5. Module 8: Position Sizing (12 min)

Time: 49 minutes + 2-3 weeks monitoring USTR announcements

First trade: "US-China annual ETR [range bucket] in 2025" or "HTS code X imports from China below threshold"

Path 3: Chokepoint Risk Specialist (Advanced)

Goal: Trade geopolitical disruptions and route normalization

Curriculum:

  1. Complete Beginner Track (Modules 1-4, 35 min)
  2. Module 6: Index Basket Construction (11 min) - Build chokepoint-port correlations
  3. Module 9: Chokepoint Risk Analysis (18 min) - Geopolitical probability assessment
  4. Module 8: Position Sizing (12 min) - Tail risk position sizing

Time: 76 minutes + 1 month monitoring Lloyd's List, IMF PortWatch chokepoint data

First trade: "Suez Canal monthly transits [range] in Q1 2025" or "War risk premium Bab el-Mandeb below $150k/voyage by [date]"

Path 4: Professional Market Maker (Expert)

Goal: Create custom markets, provide liquidity, earn spreads

Curriculum:

  1. Complete all Beginner + Intermediate modules (85 min)
  2. Module 9: Chokepoint Risk (18 min)
  3. Module 10: Creating Markets (17 min)

Time: 120 minutes + 3-6 months active trading experience

Prerequisite: Demonstrated 60%+ win rate on 20+ trades across multiple market types

Practice Trading Guide

Recommended Practice Progression:

Week 1-2: Small Positions ($10-25)

Week 3-4: Moderate Positions ($25-50)

Week 5-8: Structured Strategies ($50-100)

Month 3+: Portfolio Management ($100-250 per position)

Tracking Progress:

Related Blog Posts & Case Studies

Front-Loading Case Studies:

ETR Forecasting:

Chokepoint Risk:

Port Correlation Analysis:

FAQ

Q: Do I need to complete modules in order?

Beginner track (Modules 1-4) should be sequential—Module 2 assumes Module 1 knowledge. Intermediate track (Modules 5-8) can be flexible:

Advanced track (Modules 9-10) requires completion of at least Beginner + 2 Intermediate modules.

Q: Can I pass modules with 100% accuracy on first try?

Modules are designed for comprehension, not perfection. Self-assessment quizzes (5-10 questions per module) aim for 70-80% passing score. If you score 60-70%, re-read relevant sections and retry. Focus on understanding core concepts (binary vs scalar, ETR calculation, front-loading timing) rather than memorizing every statistic.

Q: How long until I can trade profitably?

Realistic timeline:

Factors affecting speed:

Q: What if I don't have time to monitor IMF PortWatch weekly?

Minimum viable approach (2-3 hours/week):

Alternative: Focus on long-term policy markets (annual ETR forecasts, trade diversion trends) that don't require weekly data monitoring. Trade less frequently (2-4 positions per quarter) but with deeper research.

Q: Can I use this knowledge for other prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi)?

Core concepts (probability pricing, binary/scalar mechanics, data verification) apply universally to any prediction market platform. However:

Recommended: Master Ballast Markets first (12-24 weeks), then apply framework to other platforms if desired.

Start Learning

Begin Your Journey to 70%+ Win Rates

Start with Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 and progress through the curriculum at your own pace. Each module includes:

Quick Start Paths:

Start Module 1: Prediction Markets 101 →

View All Learning Modules →

Join Ballast Markets Community Slack (ask questions, share trades) - Coming Soon

Related Resources

Index Pages:

Featured Learning Modules:

Case Studies:

Data Source Guides:

Disclaimer

This educational content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or trading recommendations. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past win rates and historical examples do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, start with small positions, and only trade capital you can afford to lose.

Modules reference real historical trades and data sources for educational illustration. Actual market outcomes depend on numerous factors including policy changes, geopolitical events, and market participant behavior that may differ from historical patterns.

Ballast Markets Learning Hub is a free educational resource. For questions about curriculum, trading strategies, or platform usage: [email protected]

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