Kalshi vs Ballast Markets: Comprehensive Comparison

Executive Summary

Kalshi and Ballast Markets both offer event-based prediction markets, but serve distinctly different market segments. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) offering binary event contracts on U.S.-centric topics—politics, economics, weather, sports—with legal clarity and institutional-grade compliance. Ballast specializes in global trade and logistics forecasting—ports, chokepoints, tariffs—using international data sources (IMF PortWatch, port authorities, customs data) unavailable on U.S.-regulated platforms.

Best for Kalshi: U.S. political elections, Fed rate decisions, weather derivatives, regulatory-compliant trading Best for Ballast: Port congestion, chokepoint disruptions, tariff forecasts, global supply chain hedging

Regulatory Distinction: Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated exchange to offer event contracts to U.S. retail traders, providing legal clarity unavailable on offshore platforms. Ballast operates internationally with compliance controls, focusing on global trade metrics outside CFTC jurisdiction.

This comparison is factual and neutral. Neither platform is affiliated with the other.

Looking for CFTC-regulated alternatives focused on global trade? Explore Ballast Markets for specialized prediction markets on international logistics, port operations, and tariff forecasting.

Platform Comparison Table

| Feature | Kalshi | Ballast Markets | |---------|--------|-----------------| | Launch Date | 2021 | 2024 | | Regulatory Status | CFTC-regulated DCM (U.S.) | Compliant access controls (international) | | Primary Focus | U.S. politics, economics, weather, sports | Global trade, ports, chokepoints, tariffs | | Market Types | Binary (Yes/No event contracts) | Binary, Scalar (buckets), Index baskets | | Geographic Focus | U.S.-centric events | Global trade flows (Asia, Europe, Americas) | | Platform Type | Traditional exchange (order book) | Blockchain-based (AMM + order book hybrid) | | Collateral | USD (fiat) | USDC (stablecoin) | | Settlement | Cash-settled (USD) | Crypto-settled (USDC redeemable to USD) | | Liquidity Depth | $500k-$5M on major markets | $10k-$200k on major ports/chokepoints | | User Base | 50,000+ registered users | Early-stage community | | Resolution Sources | Official U.S. sources (BLS, Fed, NWS, AP) | IMF PortWatch, port authorities, USTR, customs | | Custom Market Creation | Platform-controlled | User-created markets encouraged | | Trading Fees | $1 per contract side (capped) | AMM spread (1-5%) or order book fees | | Mobile Experience | iOS/Android native apps | Web-first (mobile-responsive) | | U.S. Access | Fully legal (CFTC-regulated) | Compliant geo-restrictions applied | | API Access | Yes (institutional-grade) | Planned (data integration focus) | | Account Minimum | $0 (can start with any amount) | $0 (no minimum deposit) | | KYC Requirements | Required (U.S. regulatory compliance) | Required for withdrawal thresholds |

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated exchange approved to offer event contracts to U.S. retail traders. Founded in 2021, Kalshi received Designated Contract Market (DCM) status—the same regulatory designation as CME and ICE—allowing Americans to legally trade binary outcome contracts on regulated events.

Kalshi's Core Offering:

Example Kalshi Market: "Will the Fed raise rates by 50 basis points in March 2024?" (resolves to Fed announcement)

What is Ballast Markets?

Ballast Markets is a global trade prediction platform specializing in port operations, chokepoint transits, and tariff forecasting. Launched in 2024, Ballast provides access to 1,802 ports and 27 chokepoints through IMF PortWatch integration—enabling traders to forecast supply chain disruptions, trade flow volumes, and logistics risks unavailable on U.S.-centric platforms.

Ballast's Core Offering:

Example Ballast Market: "Port of Shanghai monthly throughput index 100-125 in November 2024?" (resolves to IMF PortWatch data)

Market Coverage Insight: Kalshi offers 500+ active markets across broad categories (politics, economics, weather). Ballast covers 72+ trade entities (ports, chokepoints, countries) generating 200+ potential markets on logistics-specific metrics—representing the only prediction platform focused exclusively on global trade infrastructure.

Trade global supply chain risks? Ballast Markets provides unique forecasting tools for importers, exporters, and logistics professionals. .

Feature Comparison

Regulatory Framework

Kalshi:

Ballast:

Key Difference: Kalshi prioritizes U.S. regulatory compliance; Ballast focuses on international trade markets outside traditional regulatory frameworks.

Market Coverage Analysis

Kalshi Market Categories (500+ active markets):

  1. Politics (200+ markets)

    • U.S. Presidential/Congressional elections
    • Legislative outcomes (bills, confirmations)
    • State-level politics (gubernatorial races)
    • Approval ratings, political events

  2. Economics (150+ markets)

    • Federal Reserve rate decisions
    • Jobs reports (unemployment, NFP)
    • GDP growth, inflation (CPI/PCE)
    • Recession indicators, trade balance

  3. Weather (100+ markets)

    • Temperature forecasts (city-specific)
    • Hurricane landfall predictions
    • Snowfall totals (major cities)
    • Seasonal climate patterns

  4. Sports (30+ markets)

    • Championship winners (NFL, NBA, MLB)
    • MVP awards, playoff outcomes
    • Team performance metrics

  5. Entertainment (20+ markets)

    • Box office performance
    • Streaming viewership
    • Awards shows (Oscars, Emmys)

Ballast Market Categories (200+ potential markets):

  1. Port Operations (120+ potential markets)

    • Monthly TEU throughput (Shanghai, LA, Singapore, Rotterdam, etc.)
    • Port congestion metrics (dwell time, berth occupancy)
    • Container volumes by route (trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe)
    • Seasonal patterns (Chinese New Year, peak season)

  2. Chokepoint Transits (40+ potential markets)

    • Suez Canal monthly volumes
    • Panama Canal drought impacts
    • Strait of Malacca traffic density
    • Bosporus, Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb disruptions

  3. Tariff Forecasts (30+ potential markets)

    • Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) by corridor (U.S.-China, U.S.-EU)
    • Section 301 tariff changes
    • USMCA trade policy shifts
    • Anti-dumping/countervailing duties

  4. Supply Chain Indices (10+ potential markets)

    • Trans-Pacific Supply Chain Index
    • Asia-Europe Trade Flow Composite
    • Port Congestion Severity Index
    • Freight Rate Baskets (spot + futures)

Overlap Areas:

Unique to Kalshi:

Unique to Ballast:

Data Source Distinction: Kalshi uses U.S. government sources (BLS unemployment, NWS weather, Fed announcements)—limiting coverage to U.S.-measurable events. Ballast uses international sources (IMF PortWatch, Suez Canal Authority, Shanghai Port)—enabling global trade coverage unavailable on CFTC-regulated platforms.

Resolution & Data Quality

Kalshi Resolution Process:

Strengths:

Challenges:

Ballast Resolution Process:

Strengths:

Challenges:

Want predictable resolution schedules? Ballast Markets resolves trades using official data published on known calendars (IMF PortWatch Tuesdays, monthly port statistics). .

Use Case Scenarios

1. Macro Trader Hedging Tariff Risk

Kalshi Approach:

Ballast Approach:

Winner for Tariff Hedging: Ballast (corridor-specific ETR forecasts unavailable on Kalshi)

2. Political Bettor on U.S. Elections

Kalshi Approach:

Ballast Approach:

Winner for Political Betting: Kalshi (CFTC-legal U.S. election contracts)

3. Import/Export Business Hedging Port Congestion

Kalshi Approach:

Ballast Approach:

Winner for Port Hedging: Ballast (port-level markets unavailable on Kalshi)

4. Weather Derivatives Trader

Kalshi Approach:

Ballast Approach:

Winner for Weather Derivatives: Kalshi (dedicated weather contract offerings)

5. Supply Chain Analyst Forecasting Asia-Europe Flows

Kalshi Approach:

Ballast Approach:

Winner for Asia-Europe Trade: Ballast (international chokepoint/port data unavailable on Kalshi)

Use Case Differentiation: Kalshi excels at U.S. domestic events (politics, weather, Fed decisions) with CFTC regulatory clarity. Ballast dominates international trade logistics (ports, chokepoints, global tariffs) unavailable on U.S.-regulated platforms. Choose based on geographic focus and event type.

Need to hedge international supply chain risks? Ballast provides markets on global ports, chokepoints, and trade flows outside U.S. regulatory scope. .

Liquidity & Market Depth Comparison

Kalshi Liquidity Profile

High-Profile Markets:

Niche Markets:

Institutional Participation:

Advantage: Established user base (50,000+ registered) creates deep liquidity on U.S. political and economic events.

Ballast Liquidity Profile

Current State (Early-Stage):

Growth Trajectory:

Institutional Interest:

Advantage: Niche specialization attracts informed traders (supply chain insiders, port analysts) with superior information—less crowded markets offer mispricing opportunities.

Liquidity Growth Dynamics: CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi attract mainstream retail and institutional flow quickly (regulatory clarity). Blockchain platforms like Ballast grow liquidity through specialized communities (trade professionals) who value unique market coverage over regulatory status.

Fee Structure Comparison

Kalshi Fees

Total Round-Trip Cost: ~2-4% on typical trades (fee impact varies by contract price)

Ballast Fees

Total Round-Trip Cost: 2-6% on typical trades (AMM spread + network fees)

Cost Comparison:

Technology & Infrastructure

Kalshi Technology

Advantages:

Disadvantages:

Ballast Technology

Advantages:

Disadvantages:

Key Difference: Kalshi = traditional fintech (bank accounts, USD, centralized custody). Ballast = crypto-native (wallets, USDC, self-custody).

Research Tools & Analytics

Kalshi Tools

Ballast Tools

Advantage Kalshi: Mature platform with mobile apps, API, institutional-grade tools Advantage Ballast: Trade-specific data integration (IMF PortWatch), custom market creation, educational depth on logistics

Access institutional-grade trade data? Ballast integrates IMF PortWatch (1,802 ports), port authorities, and USTR tariff databases—infrastructure unavailable on general prediction platforms. Explore Data Tools.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Kalshi Strengths

✅ CFTC-regulated (legal certainty for U.S. traders) ✅ Deep liquidity on major U.S. events ($5M+ on elections) ✅ Tight spreads (1-3% on popular markets) ✅ Fiat USD (no crypto required—bank account deposits) ✅ Mobile apps (iOS/Android native) ✅ Institutional-grade API (automated trading, data feeds) ✅ Fast resolution on scheduled data releases (Fed, jobs reports) ✅ Weather derivatives (unique offering vs other platforms)

Kalshi Weaknesses

❌ U.S.-centric market coverage (limited international events) ❌ No port-level or chokepoint markets (no global trade logistics) ❌ CFTC approval required for new categories (slower innovation) ❌ Centralized custody (users don't control funds) ❌ Limited to binary markets (no scalar/index baskets) ❌ Higher fees on small trades ($1 flat fee impacts small positions)

Ballast Strengths

✅ Global trade specialization (1,802 ports, 27 chokepoints via IMF PortWatch) ✅ Objective resolution (100% quantitative metrics—port data, tariff rates) ✅ Scalar & index markets (granular forecasting, composite metrics) ✅ User market creation (custom resolution criteria) ✅ Natural hedging use cases (importers, exporters, freight forwarders) ✅ Educational depth (70+ pages on trade logistics) ✅ Non-custodial (users control funds via wallets) ✅ Predictable resolution schedules (IMF Tuesdays, monthly port data)

Ballast Weaknesses

❌ Smaller user base (early-stage liquidity, wider spreads 3-8%) ❌ No U.S. political markets (focus on trade, not elections) ❌ Crypto learning curve (wallet setup, USDC, gas fees) ❌ Limited to measurable trade metrics (no subjective markets) ❌ Newer platform (less track record than established exchanges) ❌ No mobile apps yet (web-first, responsive design)

Choosing the Right Platform

Use Kalshi If:

Use Ballast If:

Use Both If:

Platform Complementarity: Kalshi and Ballast serve non-overlapping niches. Kalshi = U.S. regulatory compliance, domestic events, fiat infrastructure. Ballast = international trade focus, global logistics, crypto-native. Using both provides comprehensive event coverage across regulatory jurisdictions and asset classes.

Ready to trade global supply chains? Ballast Markets offers unique port, chokepoint, and tariff markets unavailable on CFTC-regulated platforms. .

Real-World Trading Examples

Kalshi Example: Fed Rate Decision

Scenario: Trader expects Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points (not 50) in March 2024 FOMC meeting.

Market: "Will the Fed raise rates by 50+ basis points in March 2024?" (Binary: Yes/No) Current Price: YES at $0.35 (35% probability), NO at $0.65 (65% probability) Position: Buy 1,000 NO contracts at $0.65 ($650 cost + $1 fee = $651 total)

Outcome 1 (Fed raises 25 bps):

Outcome 2 (Fed raises 50 bps):

Resolution: Fed announces decision at 2 PM ET; Kalshi resolves market within minutes using Fed statement.

Ballast Example: Port of LA Congestion Hedge

Scenario: Furniture importer has $2M in containers arriving Port of LA Q4 2024. Historical congestion risk: 30% chance of over 5 day dwell time, costing $50,000 in demurrage, storage, and lost sales.

Market: "Port of LA average dwell time over 5 days in Q4 2024?" (Binary: Yes/No) Current Price: YES at $0.45 (45% probability), NO at $0.55 Hedge: Buy $10,000 YES shares at $0.45 ($4,500 cost)

Outcome 1 (Congestion occurs—dwell time over 5 days):

Outcome 2 (No congestion—dwell time fewer than 5 days):

Resolution: IMF PortWatch publishes Q4 average dwell time in January 2025; Ballast resolves market automatically via smart contract.

Value: Ballast provides trade-specific hedge reducing downside exposure by 11% ($5,500 payout offsets portion of $50,000 risk). Hedge cost ($4,500) functions as insurance premium—acceptable cost for importer managing $2M shipment risk.

Regulatory Considerations

Kalshi Regulatory Status

Implications:

Ballast Regulatory Status

Implications:

Disclaimer: Users responsible for understanding local regulations. Consult legal counsel before trading on either platform.

Tax & Accounting

Important: Prediction market winnings may be taxable. Neither platform provides tax forms automatically (1099s may vary by jurisdiction).

Kalshi Tax Treatment:

Ballast Tax Treatment:

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Is Kalshi legal in the United States?

Yes, Kalshi is fully legal in all 50 U.S. states. It's the first CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) approved to offer event contracts to retail traders. CFTC oversight provides legal certainty unavailable on offshore platforms.

2. Can I trade U.S. political events on Ballast Markets?

No, Ballast focuses on global trade and logistics (ports, chokepoints, tariffs)—not U.S. political events. For CFTC-regulated political markets, use Kalshi. Ballast specializes in international supply chain forecasting.

3. Which platform has better liquidity?

Kalshi has superior liquidity on U.S. events (Presidential election: $5M-$10M traded, 1-2% spreads). Ballast has growing liquidity on trade markets ($50k-$200k depth, 3-8% spreads). Choose Kalshi for liquid U.S. political/economic markets; Ballast for niche trade logistics.

4. How do fees compare?

Kalshi: $1 flat fee per contract side (favors large positions—fee impact decreases as size grows). Ballast: 2-6% AMM spread + network gas fees (favors larger price moves). Total costs similar (2-4% round-trip) but structure differs.

5. Can I hedge my business risks on these platforms?

Kalshi: Weather derivatives (farmers, event planners), economic hedges (Fed-sensitive businesses). Limited supply chain applications. Ballast: Designed for importers/exporters hedging port congestion, chokepoint disruptions, tariff exposure—direct operational risk offsets.

6. Do I need cryptocurrency to use Kalshi?

No, Kalshi uses fiat USD only. Deposit via bank account (ACH), trade in dollars, withdraw to bank. No crypto wallet or USDC required. Ideal for traditional finance users.

7. Do I need cryptocurrency to use Ballast?

Yes, Ballast uses USDC stablecoin on Base blockchain. You need a crypto wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet) and USDC. Users can convert USD → USDC via exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) then deposit to wallet.

8. What data sources does each platform use?

Kalshi: U.S. official sources—Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs), Federal Reserve (rates), National Weather Service (weather), Associated Press (elections). Ballast: International sources—IMF PortWatch (1,802 ports), port authorities (TEU data), USTR (tariffs), Suez/Panama Canal authorities.

9. How fast are payouts after market resolution?

Kalshi: Instant settlement to account balance (USD) after official data publishes. Withdrawals to bank via ACH (2-3 business days). Ballast: 24-48 hours after data publication (smart contract settlement). USDC withdrawals instant to wallet; conversion to USD via exchanges (minutes to hours).

10. Can I create custom markets?

Kalshi: No user market creation—all markets platform-controlled (CFTC regulatory requirement). Ballast: Yes—users encouraged to create custom markets with tailored resolution criteria on any measurable trade metric.

11. Which platform is better for beginners?

Kalshi is more beginner-friendly—fiat USD (no crypto), intuitive markets (elections, weather), mobile apps, legal clarity. Ballast requires trade/logistics knowledge and crypto familiarity but provides extensive educational content (70+ pages).

12. Can I access both platforms simultaneously?

Yes, no restrictions on using both. Many traders use Kalshi for U.S. events (politics, Fed decisions) and Ballast for international trade flows (ports, chokepoints). Diversification across platforms reduces concentration risk.

Conclusion

Kalshi and Ballast Markets serve complementary market segments with minimal overlap. Kalshi excels at CFTC-regulated U.S. events—politics, economics, weather—providing legal certainty, deep liquidity, and fiat infrastructure for mainstream traders. Ballast dominates global trade forecasting—ports, chokepoints, tariffs—with unique international data sources (IMF PortWatch) and specialized tools unavailable on U.S.-regulated platforms.

For U.S.-focused traders: Kalshi offers regulatory clarity, liquid political/economic markets, and traditional finance integration. For global trade professionals: Ballast provides port-level forecasting, chokepoint disruption hedging, and tariff rate markets unavailable elsewhere. For diversified portfolios: Use both platforms to access U.S. domestic events (Kalshi) and international logistics (Ballast).

Neither platform is objectively "better"—they target different geographies, event types, and user needs. Choose based on:

Ready to forecast global trade flows? Explore Ballast Markets for specialized prediction markets on ports, chokepoints, and tariffs—unique coverage unavailable on CFTC-regulated platforms.

Disclaimer

This comparison is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Ballast Markets is not affiliated with Kalshi. Users are responsible for understanding platform risks, fees, and regulatory compliance in their jurisdiction. Prediction markets involve risk; outcomes may differ from expectations.

Sources:

Last Updated: 2025-01-18

Competitor Information Accuracy: This comparison uses publicly available information about Kalshi. Features, fees, and regulatory status are subject to change. Users should verify current platform details directly with Kalshi before making trading decisions.