Section 301 Tariffs Explained: Complete List, Rates, and What's Coming in 2025

$370 billion in annual U.S.-China trade remains subject to Section 301 tariffs—the most comprehensive set of trade tariffs imposed on a single country in modern U.S. history.

Since 2018, these tariffs have fundamentally reshaped global supply chains, driven China's Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) from 3% to over 20%, and created billions in customs duties and compliance costs for U.S. importers.

Yet for most businesses, Section 301 tariffs remain confusing: Which list applies to my products? What are the current rates? Can I get an exclusion? What's changing in 2025?

This guide provides complete answers. You'll learn what Section 301 tariffs are, how the four tariff lists work, which products are covered, current rates (updated for 2024-2025 policy changes), the exclusion process, and what to expect in 2025.

Whether you're an importer budgeting landed costs, a trader analyzing tariff markets, or a policy analyst tracking U.S.-China trade policy, this is your comprehensive reference.

Table of Contents

  1. What Are Section 301 Tariffs?
  2. The Four Lists: Complete Breakdown
  3. Product Coverage by Category
  4. The Exclusion Process
  5. What's Coming in 2025
  6. How Section 301 Affects Your Business
  7. Common Questions About Section 301
  8. Conclusion

What Are Section 301 Tariffs?

Section 301 tariffs are punitive tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese imports following a USTR (U.S. Trade Representative) investigation into China's unfair trade practices.

Legal Authority

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 grants the President authority (delegated to USTR) to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions when a foreign country:

The USTR can self-initiate investigations or respond to petitions from U.S. industries.

The China Investigation

On August 14, 2017, USTR initiated a Section 301 investigation into China's policies and practices related to:

  1. Forced technology transfer: Requirements that U.S. companies transfer technology to Chinese partners as a condition of market access
  2. Intellectual property theft: State-sponsored cyber theft of trade secrets, proprietary data, and patents
  3. Discriminatory licensing: Restrictions on U.S. companies' ability to license technology to Chinese firms on market terms
  4. Strategic acquisition of U.S. companies: State-directed investments in U.S. technology firms to acquire sensitive technologies

After a seven-month investigation, USTR concluded on March 22, 2018 that China's practices were unjustifiable and burden U.S. commerce, authorizing tariffs.

The Four Tranches (Lists 1-4)

Between July 2018 and September 2019, USTR imposed tariffs in four waves, called "Lists":

Combined, Lists 1-4A cover approximately $370 billion in annual Chinese imports—roughly 65% of all U.S. imports from China.

Current Scope

As of January 2025, Section 301 tariffs remain in effect at rates ranging from 7.5% to 100% depending on product category. China's overall Effective Tariff Rate stands at 20.7%—nearly seven times the 3% rate before Section 301 tariffs.

The Four Lists: Complete Breakdown

Each Section 301 list targeted different product categories, imposed different tariff rates, and followed different timelines. Here's the complete breakdown.

Section 301 Tariff Lists: Overview

| List | Effective Date | Product Value | Original Rate | Current Rate (2025) | HTS Lines | Key Products | |------|----------------|---------------|---------------|---------------------|-----------|--------------| | List 1 | July 6, 2018 | $34 billion | 25% | 25% | 818 | Industrial machinery, electronics components, robotics | | List 2 | August 23, 2018 | $16 billion | 25% | 25% | 279 | Semiconductors, plastics, chemicals, railway equipment | | List 3 | September 24, 2018 | $200 billion | 10% → 25% (May 2019) | 7.5% (since Feb 2020) | 5,733 | Consumer goods, furniture, lighting, bags, textiles | | List 4A | September 1, 2019 | $120 billion | 15% | 7.5% (since Feb 2020) | 3,243 | Apparel, footwear, some electronics, home goods | | List 4B | Never implemented | $160 billion | 15% (proposed) | Suspended | ~3,000 (proposed) | Laptops, smartphones, toys, video games |

Sources: USTR Federal Register notices (2018-2020), Peterson Institute for International Economics

List 1: Industrial and Technology Products

Effective: July 6, 2018 Value: $34 billion Rate: 25% (unchanged since implementation) HTS Lines: 818 tariff lines

Coverage:

List 1 targeted Chinese industrial and technology products that USTR determined benefited most from forced technology transfer and IP theft, including:

Why These Products: USTR focused on capital goods and industrial inputs rather than consumer products to minimize impact on U.S. consumers while targeting sectors central to China's "Made in China 2025" industrial policy.

Rate History:

Exclusions: Between 2018-2020, USTR granted 1,100+ product-specific exclusions from List 1 based on industry petitions. Most expired December 31, 2020; 99 were reinstated retroactively in March 2022 and extended through May 31, 2025.

List 2: Semiconductors and Industrial Inputs

Effective: August 23, 2018 Value: $16 billion Rate: 25% (unchanged) HTS Lines: 279 tariff lines

Coverage:

List 2 expanded tariffs to additional industrial products, including:

Why These Products: List 2 continued the strategy of targeting industrial and capital goods while avoiding broad consumer products. Semiconductors and advanced materials were particularly significant given their role in strategic industries.

Rate History:

Exclusions: Approximately 200 product-specific exclusions granted 2018-2020; most expired. Some semiconductor products received extended exclusions through May 2025.

List 3: Consumer Goods and Furniture

Effective: September 24, 2018 Value: $200 billion Rate: 7.5% (current) HTS Lines: 5,733 tariff lines

Coverage:

List 3 marked the first major expansion into consumer goods, covering:

Rate History:

Why the Reduction: The Phase One trade deal, signed January 15, 2020, included U.S. tariff reductions in exchange for Chinese purchase commitments ($200 billion in U.S. goods over 2020-2021). List 3 was reduced from 25% to 7.5% to incentivize Chinese compliance.

Exclusions: List 3 exclusions have been the most contentious due to consumer product impacts. USTR granted approximately 600 exclusions 2018-2020; 253 were reinstated in March 2022 and extended through May 2025 (164 remain active as of 2025).

List 4A: Apparel and Consumer Electronics

Effective: September 1, 2019 Value: $120 billion Rate: 7.5% (current) HTS Lines: 3,243 tariff lines

Coverage:

List 4A brought Section 301 tariffs to apparel and additional consumer categories:

Rate History:

Why These Products: By late 2019, USTR had exhausted industrial and intermediate goods, forcing expansion into consumer staples. Apparel and footwear represented the largest remaining categories not yet subject to Section 301 tariffs.

Exclusions: Limited exclusions granted for List 4A. Medical textiles and some safety equipment received exemptions during COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021); most expired.

List 4B: Laptops, Phones, and Toys (Suspended)

Proposed: August 2019 Scheduled Effective Date: December 15, 2019 Value: $160 billion Proposed Rate: 15% Status: Suspended indefinitely

Proposed Coverage:

List 4B would have covered the most consumer-sensitive products:

Why Suspended: In December 2019, the U.S. and China announced the Phase One trade deal, which included:

  1. U.S. agreement to suspend List 4B indefinitely (not impose the $160 billion in tariffs)
  2. U.S. reduction of List 4A from 15% to 7.5%
  3. Chinese commitments to purchase $200 billion in U.S. goods

List 4B suspension avoided tariffs on the most politically sensitive consumer products (phones, laptops, toys) during the 2020 holiday shopping season.

Current Status (2025): List 4B remains suspended. USTR has not proposed reimplementing these tariffs, though the authority to do so remains in place.

Product Coverage by Category

Understanding which product categories face which rates is critical for importers and traders. Here's a breakdown by major category.

Section 301 Tariff Rates by Product Category (2025)

| Product Category | Typical Rate | List(s) | Example HTS Codes | Notes | |-----------------|--------------|---------|-------------------|-------| | Laptops | 0% | Exempt (List 4B suspended) | 8471.30 | Major consumer exemption | | Smartphones | 0% | Exempt (List 4B suspended) | 8517.13 | Major consumer exemption | | Furniture | 7.5% | List 3 | 9403.xx | Reduced from 25% in Phase One | | Apparel | 7.5% | List 4A | 6201-6217 | Reduced from 15% in Phase One | | Footwear | 7.5% | List 4A | 6401-6405 | Plus MFN rates (8-37.5%) | | Industrial machinery | 25% | List 1 | 8401-8487 | High rate since 2018 | | Electronics components | 25% | List 1, 2 | 8504, 8541 | Semiconductors, PCBs | | Electric vehicles | 100% | 2024 Biden increase | 8703.80 | Raised from 25% in Sept 2024 | | Lithium-ion batteries (EV) | 25% | 2024 Biden increase | 8507.60 | Raised from 7.5% in Sept 2024 | | Solar cells | 50% | 2024 Biden increase | 8541.43 | Raised from 25% in 2024 | | Steel products | 25% | List 1, 2, 3 | 7208-7229 | Plus Section 232 (25%) = 50% total | | Aluminum products | 10-25% | List 1, 2, 3 | 7601-7616 | Plus Section 232 (10%) | | Toys | 0% | Exempt (List 4B suspended) | 9503 | Major consumer exemption |

Note: Rates shown are Section 301 rates only. Total duties also include MFN (Most Favored Nation) rates, antidumping duties, countervailing duties, and Section 232 tariffs where applicable.

Semiconductor and Electronics Component Rates

The semiconductor and electronics sectors face complex, differentiated rates:

Why Differentiation: USTR targets upstream production (wafers, polysilicon) to discourage U.S. dependence on Chinese semiconductor materials while exempting finished consumer electronics (phones, laptops) to minimize consumer price impacts.

2024 Biden Tariff Increases (Strategic Sectors)

In May 2024, following a statutory four-year review, the Biden administration announced targeted tariff increases on strategic sectors, effective September 27, 2024:

| Product | Old Rate | New Rate | Effective Date | |---------|----------|----------|----------------| | Electric vehicles | 25% | 100% | Sept 27, 2024 | | Lithium-ion EV batteries | 7.5% | 25% | Sept 27, 2024 | | Lithium-ion non-EV batteries | 7.5% | 25% | 2026 | | Battery parts | 7.5% | 25% | Sept 27, 2024 | | Solar cells | 25% | 50% | 2024 | | Wafers (silicon) | 25% | 50% | Jan 1, 2025 | | Polysilicon | 25% | 50% | Jan 1, 2025 | | Natural graphite | 0% | 25% | 2026 | | Permanent magnets | 0% | 25% | 2026 | | Tungsten products | 0% | 25% | Jan 1, 2025 |

Rationale: Biden administration focused increases on clean energy and critical minerals to support domestic manufacturing under the Inflation Reduction Act and reduce strategic dependence on China.

Impact on ETR: These increases added approximately 0.5-1.0 percentage points to China's overall ETR, contributing to the rise from 19.8% (December 2023) to 20.7% (January 2025).

The Exclusion Process

Section 301 exclusions are product-specific exemptions from tariffs, granted by USTR based on industry petitions demonstrating economic hardship.

What Are Exclusions?

An exclusion is a product-specific exemption from Section 301 tariffs, identified by precise HTS code and product description. If granted, the exclusion allows duty-free entry (or rather, entry at MFN rates without the additional Section 301 tariff).

Example:

How to Apply for an Exclusion

Exclusions are granted through a public petition and comment process:

Step 1: USTR Opens Docket

USTR publishes a Federal Register notice announcing an exclusion process for specific lists (e.g., "Request for Comments Concerning Extension of Exclusions From Section 301 Tariffs").

Step 2: Industry Files Petition

Companies or trade associations submit petitions to regulations.gov, providing:

Step 3: Public Comment Period

Other parties (competitors, domestic producers, trade groups) can submit comments supporting or opposing the exclusion. Opposers typically argue domestic production exists or that exclusion undermines tariff objectives.

Step 4: USTR Decision

USTR reviews petitions and comments, considering:

Step 5: Publication

USTR publishes decisions in the Federal Register, specifying effective dates (often retroactive) and expiration dates.

Historical Exclusion Grants

2018-2020 (Initial Exclusion Process):

March 2022 (Biden Reinstatement):

May 2024 Extension:

Current Exclusion Status (2025)

As of January 2025:

Next steps: USTR has not announced whether the 164 exclusions will be extended beyond May 2025. Importers should monitor Federal Register notices and submit comments supporting renewal.

How to Check if Your Product Qualifies

Option 1: USTR Exclusion Database

USTR publishes exclusion lists in Federal Register notices. Search regulations.gov for "Section 301 exclusion" and filter by your HTS code.

Option 2: Customs Broker

Licensed customs brokers have access to exclusion databases and can provide binding determinations on whether your specific product qualifies.

Option 3: ACE (Automated Commercial Environment)

U.S. Customs and Border Protection's ACE system flags exclusions at import. When entering goods, if an active exclusion applies to your HTS code and product description, the system automatically applies it (no additional paperwork required).

Important: Exclusions are highly specific. An exclusion for "electric motors, single-phase, less than 1 HP" does NOT apply to "electric motors, three-phase, less than 1 HP." Ensure exact match.

What's Coming in 2025

Section 301 tariffs are not static. Policy changes, exclusion expirations, and geopolitical developments will shape rates through 2025.

Biden Section 301 Review (Ongoing)

USTR initiated a statutory four-year review of Section 301 tariffs in May 2022, required under the Trade Act of 1974. The review examines:

  1. Whether China has eliminated the unfair practices that justified tariffs
  2. Economic impact on U.S. industries and consumers
  3. Effectiveness in achieving policy goals
  4. Recommendations for modifications

Status: The review remains ongoing as of January 2025. USTR has not published final findings, though the May 2024 tariff increases on strategic sectors (EVs, batteries) signaled the review's direction.

Potential Scenarios for 2025

Scenario 1: Status Quo (60% Probability)

Most likely outcome: Tariffs remain at current rates (7.5-25% on most goods, 50-100% on strategic sectors).

Why: Section 301 tariffs have bipartisan support and serve multiple policy goals (China strategic competition, domestic manufacturing, union support). Neither political party has incentive to eliminate tariffs that fund U.S. production subsidies.

Impact on ETR: China ETR remains 19-22% through 2025.

Scenario 2: Selective Increases (25% Probability)

USTR raises tariffs on additional strategic sectors:

Why: National security and supply chain resilience concerns. Biden administration prioritizes reducing dependence on China in strategic sectors.

Impact on ETR: China ETR increases to 22-25%, with higher variance by product category.

Scenario 3: Broader Exclusions (10% Probability)

USTR grants new exclusions for consumer goods (furniture, apparel, footwear) to reduce inflation pressure.

Why: Consumer price concerns, lobbying from retailers (Walmart, Target, Home Depot), election-year politics.

Impact on ETR: China ETR decreases to 17-19%, with concentration of tariffs in industrial/strategic goods.

Scenario 4: Elimination/Comprehensive Deal (5% Probability)

U.S. and China negotiate comprehensive trade agreement eliminating or phasing out Section 301 tariffs in exchange for structural reforms.

Why: Would require major geopolitical shift or economic crisis necessitating tariff relief.

Impact on ETR: China ETR returns toward 3-5% (MFN baseline).

Most analysts assign less than 5% probability to this scenario in 2025.

Political Factors

2024 Election Results:

Section 301 policy will depend on executive branch direction:

Congressional Action:

Congress has limited direct control over Section 301 tariffs (executive authority), but can influence through:

China Responses:

China has not met Phase One purchase commitments ($200 billion U.S. goods), reducing U.S. incentive to maintain tariff reductions. If China retaliates with export controls (rare earths, gallium, germanium), U.S. may escalate tariffs.

Exclusion Expiration Timeline

May 31, 2025: Current 164 exclusions expire unless USTR extends.

Watch for: Federal Register notices in February-April 2025 announcing extension decisions. Historically, USTR announces extensions 60-90 days before expiration.

If exclusions expire: Importers face immediate 7.5-25% rate increases on previously excluded products. Companies relying on exclusions should file renewal petitions in Q1 2025.

Market Expectations

What are tariff prediction markets pricing for 2025?

As of January 2025, Ballast Markets ETR contracts show:

Interpretation: Markets expect China ETR to remain stable near 20% through mid-2025, with slight upward pressure toward year-end (possible selective increases).

Implied volatility (standard deviation of market-implied distribution): 3.2 percentage points—moderate uncertainty, lower than 2018-2020 volatility (6-8 pp).

How Section 301 Affects Your Business

Section 301 tariffs have different implications depending on your role in global trade.

For Importers: Budget and Margin Impacts

1. Landed Cost Calculations

Section 301 tariffs add 7.5-100% to customs value, significantly increasing landed costs:

Example:

Without Section 301 (pre-2018): $108,000—7% cost increase from tariffs alone.

For List 1 products (25% Section 301): Landed cost would be $133,000—23% cost increase.

2. Margin Compression

Importers face three choices when tariffs increase:

Most importers use a combination: absorb 30-40%, pass through 30-40%, negotiate 20-30% reductions.

3. Hedging Tariff Volatility

Section 301 rates have changed multiple times (List 3: 10% → 25% → 7.5%). This volatility creates financial risk.

Solution: Tariff hedging using prediction markets allows importers to lock in effective rates or protect against increases.

Example hedge:

For Traders: ETR Volatility Creates Opportunities

1. ETR as Settlement Metric

Tariff prediction markets on Ballast Markets resolve to official China Effective Tariff Rate published by U.S. Census Bureau.

Contract structure:

2. Trading Policy Announcements

Section 301 policy changes create predictable ETR movements:

Strategy: Position 60-90 days before policy effective dates, when markets under-price probability of implementation.

Historical example: May 2019 List 3 escalation (10% → 25%) announced May 5, effective May 10. Traders who bought "20-25%" bucket after announcement captured 180% returns when ETR jumped from 12% to 22%.

3. Mean Reversion Strategies

ETR exhibits mean reversion around policy baselines:

When ETR spikes above 22% or falls below 17% due to temporary factors (product mix shifts, statistical noise), reversion to 18-20% typically occurs within 2-3 months.

For Policy Analysts: Real vs. Announced Rates

1. ETR Measures Actual Impact

Statutory rates (25% on List 3) overstate actual tariff burden due to:

ETR (20.7%) reflects what importers actually paid, making it superior for economic modeling.

2. Budget Revenue Implications

Section 301 tariffs generated $80 billion in customs revenue (2024), funding:

Eliminating Section 301 would require offsetting revenue (~$400 billion over 10 years), making removal politically difficult.

3. Supply Chain Reshaping

Section 301 tariffs have accelerated nearshoring to Mexico, Vietnam, and India:

Policy analysts track trade diversion as indicator of Section 301 effectiveness in reducing China dependence.

Common Questions About Section 301

What's the difference between Section 301 and Section 232?

Section 301 targets unfair trade practices (IP theft, forced technology transfer) and is country-specific—currently applied primarily to China.

Section 232 addresses national security threats and applies to specific products (steel, aluminum) from most countries globally.

Legal authority:

Example: Chinese steel faces:

Can Section 301 tariffs be retroactive?

No. Section 301 tariffs apply only to goods entered for consumption on or after the effective date specified in Federal Register notices.

Example:

Exception: Exclusions CAN be retroactive.

The 352 exclusions reinstated in March 2022 applied retroactively to October 12, 2021, allowing importers to:

  1. Claim refunds for duties paid October 2021-March 2022
  2. File amended entries with CBP requesting duty refunds
  3. Receive reimbursement within 90-180 days

Retroactive exclusions are rare but do occur when USTR wants to provide relief for periods when exclusions had lapsed.

How do I know if my product has Section 301 tariffs?

Step 1: Determine HTS Code

Classify your product using the Harmonized Tariff Schedule at the 10-digit level.

Tools:

Step 2: Cross-Reference Against Section 301 Lists

Check if your HTS-10 code appears on Lists 1, 2, 3, or 4A:

Step 3: Check for Exclusions

Search regulations.gov for "Section 301 exclusion" + your HTS code to see if an active exclusion applies.

Step 4: Consult a Customs Broker

For definitive classification, hire a licensed customs broker who can:

Important: Section 301 applies at HTS-8 or HTS-10 levels. A single digit difference can mean 0% vs. 25% tariff.

What was the Phase One trade deal?

The Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement was a partial trade deal signed January 15, 2020 between the U.S. and China to de-escalate the trade war.

Key provisions:

1. U.S. Tariff Reductions:

2. Chinese Purchase Commitments:

China agreed to purchase $200 billion more U.S. goods over 2020-2021 baseline:

3. Structural Reforms (Chinese commitments):

Compliance:

Current Status (2025):

Phase One prevented further escalation but did not resolve underlying trade tensions.

Will Section 301 tariffs be eliminated in 2025?

Unlikely. Section 301 tariffs have persisted through both Trump and Biden administrations (2018-2025) and serve multiple bipartisan policy goals:

Political factors supporting continuation:

  1. China strategic competition: Bipartisan consensus on reducing economic dependence on China
  2. Domestic manufacturing: Tariffs fund subsidies (IRA, CHIPS Act) and protect U.S. producers
  3. Union support: Labor unions strongly support tariffs protecting manufacturing jobs
  4. Revenue: $80 billion annual customs revenue difficult to replace

Biden administration actions signal continuation:

Scenarios for elimination:

Most likely 2025 outcome: Tariffs remain at current levels (7.5-25% on most goods, 50-100% on strategic sectors) with possible selective increases, not elimination.

Analyst consensus: Less than 10% probability of significant Section 301 tariff reductions in 2025.

How often do exclusions get renewed?

No regular schedule. Section 301 exclusions are granted and extended through ad hoc Federal Register notices based on policy priorities and industry petitions.

Historical pattern:

2018-2020 Initial Grants:

2022-2025 Reinstatements:

Pattern: Extensions announced 30-90 days before expiration, typically in 3-6 month increments.

How to monitor:

  1. Federal Register: Search regulations.gov for "Section 301 exclusion" monthly
  2. USTR website: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations/tariff-actions
  3. Trade associations: Industry groups (NAM, NRF, RILA) track and comment on exclusion processes
  4. Customs brokers: Licensed brokers monitor exclusion renewals and alert clients

Best practice for importers relying on exclusions:

Conclusion

Section 301 tariffs remain the most comprehensive trade policy intervention in modern U.S. history, affecting $370 billion in annual Chinese imports across four tariff lists with rates ranging from 7.5% to 100%.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Four Lists with Different Rates: List 1 and 2 (25% on $50B industrial goods), List 3 (7.5% on $200B consumer goods, reduced from 25% in Phase One), List 4A (7.5% on $120B apparel/footwear, reduced from 15%), List 4B (suspended—laptops, phones, toys exempt).

  2. Product Coverage Varies Widely: Industrial machinery and electronics components face 25%, furniture and apparel face 7.5%, electric vehicles face 100%, while laptops and smartphones remain exempt due to List 4B suspension.

  3. Exclusions Provide Limited Relief: Only 164 product-specific exclusions remain active through May 31, 2025, covering ~1-2% of Section 301-affected imports. Most exclusions have expired.

  4. 2025 Outlook: Status Quo or Selective Increases: Most likely scenario is tariffs remain at current levels (60% probability) or increase selectively on strategic sectors (25% probability). Broad elimination is unlikely (less than 10% probability).

  5. ETR is the Real Metric: China's Effective Tariff Rate of 20.7% (January 2025) reflects what importers actually pay—far more accurate than statutory MFN rates (3%) or Section 301 rates (7.5-25%) due to product mix, exclusions, and exemptions.

  6. Section 301 Affects All Stakeholders: Importers face 7-23% landed cost increases requiring hedging strategies, traders can capitalize on ETR volatility via prediction markets, and policy analysts must use ETR (not statutory rates) for accurate economic modeling.

Section 301 tariffs have fundamentally reshaped U.S.-China trade, accelerated supply chain diversification to Mexico and Vietnam, and created billions in costs and compliance burdens—yet show no signs of elimination in 2025.

Ready to track Section 301 impacts? View live China ETR data, historical tariff charts back to 2018, and upcoming policy changes on Ballast Markets.

Sources

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or trade compliance advice. Section 301 tariffs, rates, and exclusions are subject to change by USTR through Federal Register notices. Product classifications and tariff applicability should be verified with licensed customs brokers or trade attorneys. Trading prediction markets involves risk of loss. Consult qualified legal and financial advisors before making import, sourcing, or hedging decisions. Ballast Markets is a product of Blink AI (https://blinklabs.ai, [email protected]). For more information, see Risk Disclosures.